2009 MAC Fearless Predictions - Week 1

Previews and Predictions for the Week 1 MAC Games, Part 1

2009 MAC Fearless Predictions

Week 1 ... Sept. 6 Games

East | Akron | Bowling Green | Buffalo | Kent State | Miami Univ. | Ohio | Temple
West  Ball State | Central Mich | Eastern Mich | Northern Illinois | Toledo | West Michigan

MAC Fearless Predictions

- Week 1, Part 2 (NIU at Wisconsin, & more)

Game of the Weeek

Western Michigan (0-0) at Michigan (0-0),3:30 EST, ABC, Saturday, September 5

Why to watch: It’s amazing how a program as big and as powerful as Michigan could keep such a low profile this offseason … yeeeeesh. For all the controversy and all the problems Rich Rodriguez is having, everything can be made better by winning. It’s that simple. If Michigan starts to win, then Rodriguez is running a tough outfit that’s doing what it needs to in a battle to rebuild into a superpower. If the losses keep piling up, then Rodriguez is out of his league and is folding under the weight of the monster program. At least that’s how the fans are seeing things, and nothing can make things better, or worse, then an opening day win for the first time since a 27-7 victory over Vanderbilt in 2006. There’s one slight problem … Western Michigan might be good enough to win. The Broncos are neck-and-neck with Central Michigan for the honor of being the MAC’s best team, and they’re used to being Big Ten season-destroyers. Iowa appeared to have a bowl bid all sewn up two years ago, but Western Michigan rolled into Iowa City and came away with the win. Last year, Illinois let its guard down and got tagged, all but ending hopes of going to a bowl game. If Michigan isn’t on, it’s going to start the season with a disastrous loss before hosting Notre Dame. However, if RichRod can beat WMU and get the win over the Irish, there’s a good chance for a 4-0 start with Eastern Michigan and Indiana to follow.
Why Western Michigan might win: Is the Michigan offense really going to be that much better? Eventually, yes, but there’s a fiasco at quarterback, top running back Brandon Minor is limping with an ankle injury, and there’s not nearly enough firepower in the passing game to keep up if Tim Hiller and the Bronco passing game gets hot. If the Michigan secondary isn’t sharp, and if there isn’t enough of a pass rush on Hiller, WMU was 11th in the nation last year in sacks allowed, it could be a long day against a talent of Hiller’s caliber. He has pulled off big wins before, and he’s more than good enough to be the steady leader the Wolverine offense is desperately missing.
Why Michigan might win: It’s not like Western Michigan is going to play any defense. The secondary is going to be a year-long problem and will give up way too many big plays and won’t come up with nearly enough interceptions, but can Michigan’s offense take advantage? The defensive front seven is smallish and could get pounded on if the Wolverines go to the power running game, but they weren’t able to do that until late last year. With the quarterback situation so suspect, Michigan will likely try to take the pressure off by running Minor, or Carlos Brown and Kevin Grady if Minor can’t go, but all eyes will be on …
Who to watch: Tate Forcier. And Denard Robinson. And Nick Sheridan. Rodriguez has said he’ll rotate three quarterbacks to try to find which one can run the offense the best. Sheridan is the veteran, but he has one major weakness: playing football. The faster true freshmen Robinson and Forcier are ready, the better, and in a perfect world with a more patient fan base, Rodriguez would throw Forcier to the wolves and let him work out his issues. There isn’t that luxury, but the chances will be there for all the quarterbacks to show what they can do and get the job.
What will happen: All that extra work will pay off for Michigan. Hiller will throw for plenty of yards, but he’ll have a tough time in key situations with Wolverine star end Brandon Graham sitting on his head. The Michigan offense won’t be tight, but it’ll get just enough out of the running game, and one huge run by either Robinson or Forcier that’ll excite the base, to escape with a tough win.
CFN Prediction: Michigan 23 … Western Michigan 20 ... Line: Michigan -11
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 3.5 … Free Expert Football Predictions

Troy (0-0) at Bowling Green (0-0),7:00 EST, Thursday, September 3

Why to watch: This game might get lost among the bigger name battles on the opening night, but it could turn out to be the best of the bunch. It’s like a mid-level bowl game with both teams likely to be among the best in their respective conferences. Troy should be the star of the Sun Belt, or will at least battle Florida Atlantic for the honor, while Bowling Green has the talent to get to the MAC title game. The expectations are high for the Falcons, just being an above-average MAC team isn’t good enough, evidenced by the canning of head coach Gregg Brandon after a decent 6-6 season. In comes Dave Clawson who’ll be looking to make the offense more consistent, and with a trip to Missouri coming next week, opening up strong is a must.
Why Troy might win: The Bowling Green defensive front seven is suspect. It came up with a big season last year, but the front four needs to find playmakers right away. That could be a problem against a Troy offensive line that should be tremendous in the middle and strong at tackle in time. The Trojan spread offense is the last thing a new, young defensive front will want to deal with, and there are enough good skill players to make this a shootout.
Why Bowling Green might win: The Troy defense is always going to be strong, but it has to do some retooling in the secondary. Bowling Green’s passing attack should be excellent right away with QB Tyler Sheehan and top target Freddie Barnes likely to have huge days against a green group of defensive backs. There’s enough talent in the Falcon backfield to keep the Troy defense honest with the running game, but there should be several big plays through the air.
Who to watch: How well will the Bowling Green coaching staff know the tendencies of Troy QB Levi Brown? Brown played at Richmond for two years under Clawson before going to Troy, and while there will be a familiarity factor, the Bowling Green staff will have to spend more time preparing for Jerrel Jernigan. The star Trojan wideout will get the ball on handoffs, quick screens, and deep plays. He’ll be option one for the Falcons to stop .
What will happen: This will be a entertaining game with plenty of momentum swings. Sheehan and Brown will put on a show, and so will Barnes and Jernigan. In the end, the Falcons will come up with just enough balance offensively to give Clawson his first win.
CFN Prediction: Bowling Green 27 … Troy 23 ... Line: Bowling Green -6.5
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) … 2  ... Free Expert Football Predictions

Villanova (0-0) at Temple (0-0),7:00 EST, Thursday, September 3

Why to watch: If you’re looking for a possible opening day FCS upset over an FBS team, this might be it. Villanova is coming off an extremely successful 10-3 season that ended with a loss to national champion James Madison in a 31-27 thriller. This year’s Wildcat team is loaded with good veterans and dangerous playmakers, but Temple needs to come up with the win. There are two weeks off before the trip to Penn State and three weeks until the MAC East showdown against Buffalo, but getting by Villanova will be hard enough. The crosstown Philadelphia battle should be entertaining, and it needs to be a statement for Temple. It might not make any noise on a national scale, but a win would be impressive.
Why Villanova might win: All of a sudden, with Temple giving the boot to All-MAC end Junior Galette, the D line is extremely thin. That could be a huge problem against a veteran Villanova offensive front that welcomes back four starters and should be great for the ground game. The Wildcats were 12th in the nation in rushing, helped by mobile QB Chris Whitney, a strong playmaker who finds ways to pull off wins. On the other side of the ball, Temple has had a rough time scoring over the last, well, decade, and it could have issues with its consistency against an active group of Wildcat linebackers.
Why Temple might win: This is a veteran Temple offense that should be a bit stronger. It’ll be hard to be worse than last year, and it won’t be with nine starters coming back. This isn’t just an experienced group, but it’s very fast and very athletic. On the other side, the Wildcat running game should have a tough time breaking off big runs against Alex Joseph and a group of linebackers that should be among the strongest in the MAC. This is a strong team up the middle, so if Villanova isn’t making things happen wide, the offense might be sputtering.
Who to watch: After a long battle for the starting quarterback job, junior Vaughn Charlton will get the nod for the Owls. He has a veteran offense to run, but he has to show he can provide the same leadership and moxie that his predecessor, Adam DiMichele, gave the offense throughout the last two seasons. The coaching staff, particularly head coach Al Golden has gone out of his way to say this is Charlton’s offense and he won’t have to look over his shoulder at sophomore Chester Stewart if the offense sputters, but that’s not a lock. Charlton has to produce, and he has to produce right away.
What will happen: It’s not going to be an upset. Villanova lost three games last year. One was against West Virginia, and two were to James Madison. This is a veteran team returning with as much talent as Temple has, and considering the problems the Owls have scoring, this could be a nice win for the FCS to get to start out the year.
CFN Prediction: Villanova 31 … Temple 23 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) … 1.5  ... Free Expert Football Predictions

Coastal Carolina (0-0) at Kent State (0-0),7:00 EST, Thursday, September 3

Why to watch: With all the turnover among MAC coaching staffs, it was a bit of a shocker that Doug Martin was brought in for a sixth season after going 19-39. With a team that’s not expected to make a whole bunch of noise in the MAC East, Martin and his Golden Flashes have to come up with a win over a not-that-bad Coastal Carolina team that should be in the hunt for the Big South title all season long. The Chanticleers were a mega-disappointment over the last few years, but they have a good enough team to come up with a bounce-back season after going 6-6.
Why Coastal Carolina might win: Kent State will try to come up with more of a passing game after doing nothing over the last few years, but the offense will revolve around the running game. With a good secondary, arguably the best in the Big South, CCU should make Kent State far more one-dimensional than it’ll want to be.
Why Kent State might win: The Golden Flash defense is being overlooked by most of the preseason prognosticators. A disaster last season, there should be a big-time turnaround with seven starters returning and the potential for a big season from Kevin Hogan and the defensive line, even with star tackle Sam Frist hurting and likely out. CCU is looking to run with more authority this season and try to control games by powering it, and that could be tough.
Who to watch: The Kent State offense will revolve around the running of Eugene Jarvis, who could be a threat to run for 2,000 yards if he can stay healthy, but the offense has the best pure passer it has had under center in years in Giorgio Morgan. He has a live arm, good mobility, and the potential to make the average receivers around him better, but he’ll be tested, CCU will throw everything and the kitchen sink at Jarvis, and Morgan has to make the defense pay.
What will happen: This is a rock-solid CCU team that’ll be a nice test for the Golden Flashes. This will be the game the Kent State defense was trying to come up with all throughout last season by getting into the backfield and being disruptive enough to pull off the win.
CFN Prediction: Kent State 31 … Coastal Carolina 17 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 1  .. Free Expert Football Predictions

North Texas (0-0) at Ball State (0-0),7:30 EST, ESPNU, Thursday, September 3

Why to watch: Is there life after Brady Hoke and Nate Davis? The Cardinals lost their head coach to San Diego State and their star quarterback to an attempt at becoming a pro, but there’s even more work to be done to rebuild across the board. The team that was unbeaten and got to the MAC title game before the wheels came flying off has to show right away that the success could still continue and that this could be close to the same team that dominated the conference throughout last year. North Texas hasn’t done much of anything since Todd Dodge took over as the head coach, and he could use a hot start to cool off his hot seat. His offense hasn’t taken flight, his defense hasn’t shown up over the last few years, and the wins have been hard to come by going 3-21 in two seasons. This is the first of two games against the MAC with a game against Ohio next week.
Why North Texas might win: What does Ball State have left in the bag? The Cardinals aren’t anywhere near the same team that started last year with only one starter back on the offensive line and just 11 returning starters overall. The biggest issue on defense should be the secondary, and it could be lit up if the North Texas passing game finally finds some semblance of consistency and explosiveness.
Why Ball State might win: If the Ball State passing game can find a way to get into a groove early, it could be in for a huge day. North Texas isn’t expected to have any sort of a pass rush without going through extraordinary lengths, and making a bad situation a disaster could be the cornerback situation with star Antoine Bush out with a knee injury and starter Adryan Adams likely out with a bad back. That means the opportunity is there to get a huge day from ...
Who to watch: Ball State QB Kelly Page. It’ll be the redshirt freshman’s job to fill the new shoes of Davis, and by all accounts he has the potential to be even better than his predecessor … eventually. He has excellent size, a live arm, and he’s a better runner than Davis. Now he has to show he can be a solid decision maker and that he can make a horrible UNT secondary pay.
What will happen: The Ball State offense will be fine with MiQuale Lewis and the running game easing Page into the job, but it’ll be the play of Brandon Crawford and the defensive front that’ll be the difference. UNT QB Riley Dodge will be under pressure all game long, and he’ll make just enough mistakes to allow Ball State to come up with the first win for Parrish.
CFN Prediction: Ball State 44 … North Texas 23 ... Line: Ball State -17
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 2  ... Free Expert Football Predictions 

Akron (0-0) at Penn State (0-0),12:00 EST, Big Ten Network, Saturday, September 5

Why to watch: The Penn State death march of non-conference games begins here. The Akron game should prepare the Nittany Lions for the showdown against Syracuse, which all leads up to the epic battle ahead against Temple and the mid-season slugfest with Eastern Illinois. No, JoePa’s program isn’t exactly extending itself before dealing with the Big Ten, and while Paterno would never think about putting up big scores or try to blow teams out for cosmetic purposes, that’s what Penn State needs to do. If this isn’t a four-touchdown blowout, there will be whispers that the rebuilding and reloading job might take a while. Akron isn’t bad, the offense is just good enough to provide a nice scrimmage, but all the attention and most of the focus will be on next week when it gets to open up its shiny new stadium against Morgan State.
Why Akron might win: Name one of the Penn State starting wide receivers. It doesn’t matter much since the Nittany Lions will win by running the ball, but until new prospects like Derek Moye, Brett Brackett, and Graham Zug, among others, can show they can produce on a consistent basis, the Zips will load up to try to stop the run. The secondary might be the strength of the entire Akron team.
Why Penn State might win: The Nittany Lion offensive line might bury the Akron defensive front. Almondo Sewell is a star who’s good enough to start for Penn State, or for an NFL team in the near future, but the Zips need a butt-kicking defensive tackle and Ryan Bain was supposed to be it. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and while he’ll give it a go, he’s got a back issue to deal with and could be limited if he plays. Penn State RB Evan Royster could have a breakout game that gets him on top of the national rushing rankings after one week.
Who to watch: Penn State All-America LB Sean Lee will be jumping out of his skin. The star who was supposed to be the leader of last year’s defense is coming off a knee injury but is 100% and raring to go. He has said it’ll take everything in him to dial it down a few notches and not try to go 100 miles per hour on every play, but for a playmaker of his caliber to be sitting on the sidelines for a full year, he’ll be unleashed now that he’s back on the field.
What will happen: It’s Penn State against an inferior non-conference opponents. Make plans to do something else in the second half.
CFN Prediction: Penn State 48 … Akron 10 ... Line: Penn State -27.5
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 2… Free Expert Football Predictions

Kentucky (0-0) at Miami University (0-0),12:00 EST, ESPNU, Saturday, September 5

Why to watch: Kentucky has just enough young talent returning to be a dangerous team in the SEC, and while it won’t win the East, or even come up with a sniff, this should grow into one of Rich Brooks’ most fun squads to watch. For Miami, this is technically a home game, even if it’s being played in Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, and it’s the beginning of the Mike Haywood era after several disappointing years under former head coach Shane Montgomery. MU has always had enough MAC talent to be a preseason favorite for the title, but bad offenses, injuries, and few breaks led the way to some utter disasters, like last year’s 2-10 campaign. With five road games in the next six, and the home date against Cincinnati, it’ll be a rough start for the RedHawks, but an upset over an SEC could jump-start the program.
Why Kentucky might win: The Kentucky offensive line should be able to shove around the Miami defensive front. The RedHawks were among the worst in the nation last season at generating pressure, and while new defensive coordinator Carl Reese has vowed that his defensive front will be more aggressive and more effective, that could be difficult against a UK front five that might be the strength of the offense.
Why Miami might win: The RedHawk defense gets everyone of note back in the secondary. The front seven might struggle in rebuilding phase for the linebacking corps and with so much work needed to be done on the line, but the defensive backs should be able to stay with the average UK receivers. MU might not have the best O line, but there are enough weapons to come up with a few big plays needed to stay in the game.
Who to watch: Two very key Kentucky playmakers need to be healthy. Do-it-all wide receiver Randall Cobb has suffered from back problems this offseason, and while he’s expected to play, he could be limited. The coaching staff would like to use him in a variety of ways, but if he’s not moving like he was able to last year, he just be a wideout. The bigger concern is on the defensive side where All-SEC linebacker Micah Johnson suffered a foot injury in practices. If he’s out, and he’s doubtful to play, it’ll be up to Ronnie Sneed or Mikhail Mabry to take over.
What will happen: The Miami offense will try to push the ball down the field a bit more and will try to open things up compared to last year, but it’s not going to matter. Kentucky will come up with a nice balance offensively, and a good performance, especially against the run, defensively to come up with the relatively easy win.
CFN Prediction: Kentucky 30 … Miami 14 ... Line: ?????
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 2 … Free Expert Football Predictions

Toledo (0-0) at Purdue (0-0),12:00 EST, Saturday, September 5

Why to watch: It’s the beginning of the Danny Hope era at Purdue and the Tim Beckman era at Toledo. Hope already knows what he’s doing having served as the right hand man and the hand-picked successor by Joe Tiller, while Beckman is being asked to revive a program that used to be one of the stars of the MAC. Which program will rebound faster? Toledo is loaded with dangerous offensive weapons, but it’s the defense that needs to come up big after struggling so much last year. Purdue needs to find playmakers after struggling with its consistency last year, and while this might be a Big Ten vs. MAC battle, it’s more dead-even than it might appear. Toledo is more than good enough to pull off the win, and it might need it with Colorado and Ohio State to follow. Purdue has to go to Oregon next week and will be a huge underdog. There can’t be a slip here.
Why Toledo might win: Purdue’s talent level offensively is suspect, at best. The line should be fine and Joey Elliott is a veteran who should step in and be fine at quarterback, but there’s a big hole at receiver and there might not be an efficient passing attack early on. Toledo, if everything works the way it’s supposed to, has far, far more firepower than it showed last year. Purdue might not be able to keep up if this gets into a shootout.
Why Purdue might win: Toledo’s biggest weakness might not be much better right away. Purdue’s skill players need time to work, and they should get it with a mediocre Toledo pass rush to deal with. The Rockets were next-to-last in America in sacks and didn’t do nearly enough to get into the backfield, and while Beckman is a defensive coach, having been Oklahoma State’s defensive coordinator last year, he’s not great at getting his lines to the quarterback. Elliott isn’t going to be Peyton Manning, but if he gets five days to throw, the problems at receiver might not be so glaring.
Who to watch: It’s Elliott’s time. After waiting in the wings for the last few years as the main backup behind Curtis Painter, Elliott is more than ready to step in and lead an offense that was hit-or-miss throughout last season. Will this be an attack that bogs down against any defense with a pulse, again, or will it be a more consistent offense with more pop. After finishing ninth in the Big Ten in passing efficiency, Purdue’s passing game, and Elliott, have to show early on that things have changed.
What will happen: This should be a fun shootout. Neither team has a solid enough defense to keep the other from moving the ball, but neither one has a consistent enough attack to take advantage of key opportunities. Purdue will be a little bit better with a running game that will take over in the fourth quarter and hang on to the ball for a majority of the final frame.
CFN Prediction: Purdue 34 … Toledo 30 ... Line: Purdue -11
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 2… Free Expert Football Predictions   

- Week 1, Part 2 (NIU at Wisconsin, & more)