2009 M-West Fearless Predictions
Week 1 ... Sept. 6 Games
Air Force |
BYU
|
Colorado State
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New Mexico
San
Diego State |
TCU
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UNLV
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Utah
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Wyoming
Mountain West Fearless Predictions
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Week 1, Part 2
Game of the Week
BYU (0-0) vs. Oklahoma (0-0) in Arlington, TX,7:00 EST, ESPN, Saturday, September 5
Why to watch: It might not seem like it, but this could be a BCS bowl battle. BYU has the experience, the make-up, and the schedule to be the star team from outside of the big six BCS conferences, and while an appearance in a BCS game would be a huge step for head coach Bronco Mendenhall and the Cougars, they’ll have a chance to think bigger, much, much bigger, if they can pull off a win over a team that could be every bit as strong as the one that came so achingly close to winning the national championship last season.
Oklahoma is starting off the year as almost everyone’s No. 3 team, mainly because everyone feels bad that Texas got hosed last year, but that could quickly change. There are concerns in the receiving corps and the offensive line is undergoing a major personnel change, but the stars of the team that put up 60 point games with regularity are back, and the defense is expected to be even better. This is a nice opening day game for Sam Bradford and company with layups against Idaho State and Tulsa to follow, but it’s also a dangerous trap. BYU is more than good enough to win this game if the Sooners aren’t sharp, but on the flip side, OU is more than good enough to crank out a business-as-usual 65 points and make everyone’s jaws drop.
Why BYU might win: The plan is for BYU to try to generate pressure, and lots of it. This was a constant issue throughout last season as the supposedly great defensive front was underwhelming at best, non-existent at worst, and it proved costly in key moments. This offseason there was more of a focus on figuring out how to get into the backfield on a regular basis, and with a tremendous end in Jan Jorgensen leading the way, the line could end up bothering Bradford more than he’s used to. The OU O line will be good, but it might take a game or two to be great. BYU has to take advantage if it’s planning on having any shot at pulling off the upset.
Why Oklahoma might win: The BYU secondary simply isn’t good enough to stay with the OU receivers. Yes, there might be some key losses, most notably Juaquin Iglesias, but the Sooners are loaded with very big, very fast, very talented wideout prospects to work
with not that everyone’s All-America tight end, Jermaine Gresham,
is out with a knee injury. Adron Tennell and Brandon Caleb are just a few of the new stars who’ll flourish with Bradford throwing their way, and while BYU might have enough firepower to put up some nice numbers, it won’t have enough to keep up the pace if Bradford gets in a groove.
Who to watch: It’s a shame to think about what might have been. It’s not like Oklahoma RB DeMarco Murray’s career is over, far from it, but he had all the makings of a truly special back before he was hit with a variety of injuries, the latest being a hamstring that limited him this offseason. He’ll still combine with Chris Brown to form an NFL-caliber 1-2 rushing punch, but he won’t be returning kickoffs despite being one of the nation’s best. The coaching staff can’t risk getting him hurt. On the other side, BYU star RB Harvey Unga has a hamstring injury of his own, but he’s expected to play. However, he might end up getting a lighter workload if he’s not going 100% in the second half, which would put even more pressure on QB Max Hall and the Cougar passing game.
What will happen: Hall will throw for 350 yards, but Bradford will throw five touchdown passes as the Sooners open it up in the second half. BYU will make it interesting for at least 30 minutes, and then the OU defensive front seven will take over and will stop the running game, sit on Hall’s head, and the run will begin.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma 45 … BYU 20 ... Line: Oklahoma -21.5
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) … 3
Utah State (0-0) at Utah (0-0),9:00 EST, Thursday, September 3
Why to watch: On a 14-game winning streak, Utah gets back on the field taking the first step to showing the world that the program really does belong in the discussion among the top teams. While beating Utah State would hardly do that, this is a chance to set the tone and show that it’s business as usual despite the major personnel turnover on both sides of the ball. Utah State is trying to finally show some signs of life after former head coach Brent Guy struggled to generate any success winning just nine of his 47 games. New head man Gary Andersen was a big part of Utah’s rise to stardom, but knowing his former team might not be nearly enough to make this close. The Aggies lost to the Utes 58-10 last season and has lost 11 straight in the series. The last Utah State victory over the big state school came in 1997.
Why Utah State might win: Andersen knows his former team backwards and forwards, while Utah is coming in cold with no idea what it’s in for. Andersen and his staff changed everything up on offense going to more of a Utah-like spread, while the defense that has been so bad over the last few years will at least be more aggressive. Considering Utah is trying to figure out its quarterback situation and is trying to reload on its own, this could be a shake, uneven game.
Why Utah might win: Utah State needs a ton of work, even with all the key returners on offense, and the defense is going to be a mess for a while. Forget about the Aggies running the ball on a Utah run defense front that should be even stronger than last year when it gave up just 99 yards pre game. Utah State’s offensive front won’t do anything against the Ute defensive tackles.
Who to watch: Who’s going to replace Brian Johnson as Utah’s quarterback? Johnson and the Utah offense might not have been consistent, but he made every big play needed. Corbin Louks and his 4.4 wheels was expected to be the heir apparent, but he never took the job by the horns, was third on the depth chart, and then he transferred to Nevada. His loss should be the gain of Terrance Cain, the national JUCO Offensive Player of the Year with deadly accurate passing skills and good upside. Also getting work will be true freshman Jordan Wynn, a surprise throughout the offseason who looked ready to start right now. He’s a mobile playmaker who’s good enough to start now.
What will happen: Utah might need to make plenty of key changes and it’s not the same team as last year, but it should be able to handle Utah State without a problem. The Ute defense will keep Diondre Borel and the Aggie offense under wraps, while the Utah running game will control the game from the start.
CFN Prediction: Utah State 41 … Utah 6 ... Line: Utah -20.5
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 2
Nicholls State (0-0) at Air Force (0-0),2:00 EST, Saturday, September 5
Why to watch: If you like rushing games, this is for you. Air Force is Air Force, and while the plan, as always, will be to get more going through the air, the bread will be buttered with the ground game that finished sixth in the nation last season. Nicholls State also is all about the ground game with an attack that averaged 208 yards per game, 14th among FCS teams. Playing this early in the year is new for several Colonels after missing most of the first half of last season thanks to Hurricane Gustav.
Why Nicholls State might win: Air Force has been good defensively against the mediocre teams, but it struggled against the ones with a little bit of talent. Nicholls State isn’t anything special overall, and it’ll need several breaks to be a contender in Southland play, but its spread ground game should be able to crank out at least 250 yards of offense. The Colonel offense should be just effective enough to hold on to the ball for stretches.
Why Air Force might win: The NSU defense doesn’t have a prayer of holding the Falcon attack under check. This is a veteran attack that should be relatively sharp to start the season, and it’ll take advantage of every mistake and every problem the NSU defensive front will have. Last year’s run defense sputtered, the defense gave up 420 yards per game, and there were way too many problems with turnovers and takeaways. There should be more of the same to start the year.
Who to watch: There was plenty of talk about changing things up at quarterback for Air Force this offseason, but in the end, Tim Jefferson will stay at the position and dangerous playmaker Asher Clark, the team’s best running back, won’t make the switch. These two need to find their comfort zone right away with a trip to Minnesota coming up, and while they’re veterans and they each battled for the job under center, they need the tune-up.
What will happen: The Air Force machine will be humming. The Falcons will rip off over 300 yards of rushing offense and it should be effective with the passing game, at least for Air Force. Nicholls State can’t stop the pass, and it’ll show.
CFN Prediction: Air Force 45 … Nicholls State 17 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 1
Weber State (0-0) at Wyoming (0-0),3:00 EST, Saturday, September 5
Why to watch: Wyoming could be a victim of its schedule. The first year under Dave Christensen, the former offensive coordinator at Missouri, could be a rough one with Texas, at Colorado, and the tough Mountain West schedule to deal with, but the team might not be all that bad if he can generate more offense. However, the Cowboys need to start out with a win because they could be few and far between. Weber State won’t be a pushover after going 10-4 last season and coming into this year as a favorite, along with Montana, to win the Big Sky title. Former Utah head coach Ron McBride knows the MAC and he has a team good enough to make this a nearly dead-even battle.
Why Weber State might win: Will Wyoming’s offense be drastically better? Offense might be Christensen’s bag, but he’s starting from scratch after the Cowboys finished dead last in the nation in scoring and 108th in total offense. Making thing more difficult could be a defense that struggled to generate pressure last season. Weber State had the nation’s fifth best passing attack, and was fourth in passing efficiency, and now eight starters return.
Why Wyoming might win: While the Wildcats have a few very good players returning defensively, the D wasn’t anything special last year and has to do some major rebuilding. It’s early and it’s going to take a little while for Christensen’s teachings to kick in, but this is a plum chance for the Cowboy attack to put some points on the board. The no-huddle spread attack should keep the Wildcat defense on its heels.
Who to watch: Throughout the offseason, Wyoming veteran Karsten Sween was supposed to be the one who took to the new attack and would lead the way out of the doldrums. The coaching staff changed things up late this summer by naming JUCO transfer Robert Benjamin the starting quarterback to bring more athleticism to the position. While he’s a good runner, he’s more of a scrambler and he’ll be used in a variety of ways. Not only is Sween not the starter, he’ll be the No. 3 behind Austyn Carta-Samuels.
What will happen: This will be a battle down to the final moments, and Weber State has the type of team to pull off the upset. But the Cowboy defensive front will come up with a nice performance and Benjamin will be unearthed as the new face of the program.
CFN Prediction: Wyoming 34 … Weber State 31 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 2