2009 WAC Fearless Predictions
Week 1 ... Sept. 6 Games
Boise State |
Fresno State |
Hawaii
|
Idaho
|
Louisiana Tech
Nevada |
New Mexico St |
San Jose
State |
Utah State
WAC Fearless Predictions
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Week 1, Part 2
Game of the Week
Oregon (0-0) at Boise State (0-0), Thursday, Sept. 3, 10:15 pm ET, ESPN
Why To Watch: There are only a handful of games all year that’ll decide whether a so-called mid-major earns a BCS bowl bid for a third straight season. This one in Idaho gets top billing. In one of the four match ups between ranked teams on the opening weekend, Boise State hosts Oregon in a primetime, national TV event that should wind up being as entertaining as advertised. If the Broncos can hold serve here, they’ll be favored to win out and might even generate some Utah-esque chatter to play for a national championship. In an age when just winning the WAC is no longer enough, the direction of their season hinges on this one game. Oregon arrives flush with headlines of its own. One of the hottest teams down the stretch in 2008, it begins 2009 as one of the primary threats to USC’s Pac-10 throne. The Ducks have a budding rock star at quarterback in Jeremiah Masoli and new head coach Chip Kelly, who takes over for the retired Mike Bellotti. This is an unmistakable launching pad game for whichever team survives.
Why Oregon Might Win: Did you watch last year’s Poinsettia Bowl, in which TCU pummeled Boise State with a power running game? The Ducks have throughout August. They plan to unleash their prolific ground game on a Bronco D that lacks size and is looking to replace all but one starter on the front seven. Oregon has rebuilding to do up front as well, but that won’t prevent Masoli and backs LeGarrette Blount and LaMichael James from getting outside the tackles and into the secondary. While Boise State has a knack for getting it done on defense, it’s not facing your typical WAC opponent. The Ducks’ quick-strike, high-scoring offense will spread the field, allowing their superior athletes to make plays.
Why Boise State Might Win: Although the Broncos won’t frighten teams with their next-level speed, they are fundamentally sound and rarely make mistakes under head coach Chris Petersen. It all begins with the precision passing of Kellen Moore, a sophomore who plays with the poise and leadership of a senior. His efficient reads and play-action passes to Austin Pettis and Titus Young will test an Oregon secondary that’s vulnerable, especially in the red zone. Boise State can also pound the ball, using the running of Jeremy Avery and D.J. Harper, and the blocking of FB Richie Brockel to dent an already soft interior of the Duck line. Don’t underestimate the little things, like special teams and the crowd, which clearly tilt in the Broncos’ favor.
Players To Watch: Whether he’s a covering a receiver or returning a punt, Boise State senior Kyle Wilson is going to do something to electrify the locals. History says so. One of the best athletes in this game and a serious pro prospect, he’s one of the nation’s most dangerous return men and bolsters an air-tight Bronco secondary. If he and his mates can shut down passing lanes, stopping the Oregon offense gets a bit easier.
What Will Happen: On a neutral field in December, Oregon probably takes this game without much of a problem. On the blue turf in the opener, however, the Broncos are going to be very tough to beat and will play at a whole other level. Sure, things are a very different on both sides, but don’t forget that Boise State dominated this game last September...in Eugene. In a back-and-forth affair that’ll have no shortage of offensive fireworks, the Oregon running game will do just enough to control the game and win a thriller.
CFN Prediction: Oregon 33 ... Boise State 30
Line: Boise State -5
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) .... 5 ...
Free Expert Football Predictions
Utah State (0-0) at Utah (0-0),9:00 EST, Thursday, September 3
Why to watch: On a 14-game winning streak, Utah gets back on the field taking the first step to showing the world that the program really does belong in the discussion among the top teams. While beating Utah State would hardly do that, this is a chance to set the tone and show that it’s business as usual despite the major personnel turnover on both sides of the ball. Utah State is trying to finally show some signs of life after former head coach Brent Guy struggled to generate any success winning just nine of his 47 games. New head man Gary Andersen was a big part of Utah’s rise to stardom, but knowing his former team might not be nearly enough to make this close. The Aggies lost to the Utes 58-10 last season and has lost 11 straight in the series. The last Utah State victory over the big state school came in 1997.
Why Utah State might win: Andersen knows his former team backwards and forwards, while Utah is coming in cold with no idea what it’s in for. Andersen and his staff changed everything up on offense going to more of a Utah-like spread, while the defense that has been so bad over the last few years will at least be more aggressive. Considering Utah is trying to figure out its quarterback situation and is trying to reload on its own, this could be a shake, uneven game.
Why Utah might win: Utah State needs a ton of work, even with all the key returners on offense, and the defense is going to be a mess for a while. Forget about the Aggies running the ball on a Utah run defense front that should be even stronger than last year when it gave up just 99 yards pre game. Utah State’s offensive front won’t do anything against the Ute defensive tackles.
Who to watch: Who’s going to replace Brian Johnson as Utah’s quarterback? Johnson and the Utah offense might not have been consistent, but he made every big play needed. Corbin Louks and his 4.4 wheels was expected to be the heir apparent, but he never took the job by the horns, was third on the depth chart, and then he transferred to Nevada. His loss should be the gain of Terrance Cain, the national JUCO Offensive Player of the Year with deadly accurate passing skills and good upside. Also getting work will be true freshman Jordan Wynn, a surprise throughout the offseason who looked ready to start right now. He’s a mobile playmaker who’s good enough to start now.
What will happen: Utah might need to make plenty of key changes and it’s not the same team as last year, but it should be able to handle Utah State without a problem. The Ute defense will keep Diondre Borel and the Aggie offense under wraps, while the Utah running game will control the game from the start.
CFN Prediction: Utah 41 … Utah State 6 ... Line: Utah -20.5
Central Arkansas (0-0) at Hawaii (0-0),1:05 AM EST, Saturday, September 5
Why to watch: On the surface this seems like it should be a rollover game for Hawaii. Good FBS teams have problems making the big trip across the pond, much less an FCS team that doesn’t travel much. But Central Arkansas isn’t bad, going 10-2 last season and the clear favorite to win the Southland title. The defense struggled with its consistency last year, but it’s a veteran group and should give the Warriors a few problems. For Hawaii, this is the one chance to enjoy the home life for a while with three straight road games to follow. The next home game isn’t until October 10th against Fresno State.
Why Central Arkansas might win: This is a Bear team full of experience and with just enough talent to keep the Hawaii attack under wraps deep into the second half. 18 starters are back with the best playmakers on the defense. There should be decent pressure in the Warrior backfield while the offense should be balanced and it should be able to run enough to keep the Hawaii offense off the field for long stretches.
Why Hawaii might win: Central Arkansas might have a lot of veterans, but it’s missing star QB Nathan Brown, the fringe pro prospect who put up monster numbers throughout last season. Even though top receiver Malcolm Lane is out for the year with school issues, QB Greg Alexander is back and should be a steady leader for the passing game. This might not be the 400+ yard attack that Warrior fans are used to, but it will be for this game and it should be strong enough to keep the Bears on their heels and make this a shootout. Central Arkansas would like to be balanced, and it’s not going to get too much of a chance.
Who to watch: Who’s going to step up in place of Lane? It’s not just a case of plug and play for the Hawaii passing game, there is a need for talent. There’s a buzz, though, about Jovonte Taylor, one of the fastest players to ever play for the Warriors and he’s expected to be a breakout performer. Alexander will find him on several deep passes.
What will happen: This will be a major shootout with each team throwing haymakers, but the Hawaii offense will do a bit more to get the fun and exciting win.
CFN Prediction: Hawaii 45 … Central Arkansas 31 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 1.5
Nevada (0-0) at Notre Dame (0-0),3:30 EST, ABC, Saturday, September 5
Why to watch: Welcome to the first game of the rest of Charlie Weis’s life. The pressure is on in what’s supposed to be a BCS or bust season for Weis and Notre Dame, but they’re not going to have a layup to open up the season. Nevada is looking to make a major national statement for itself and the WAC thanks to one of the nation’s best offenses with a running game that should finish in the top five. QB Colin Kaepernick is the best quarterback America hasn’t seen, but the Irish defensive front has had several months to focus on keeping him and the Wolf Pack attack in check. Will it matter? Will the Irish talent finally come through, or is this just an average team full of veterans? When it comes to what Irish fans want, will a good, tough win be enough, or does this have to be a blowout? It’s one of the most intriguing games of the opening weekend and could go a long way to determining a possible BCS spot … for both teams. Nevada has big dreams that this is the year the program has been shooting for over the last few seasons, while Notre Dame needs this with a trip to Michigan and a date with Michigan State to follow.
Why Nevada might win: The pass rush will be in Jimmy Clausen’s face all game long. The Wolf Pack doesn’t use a whole slew of funky blitzes, but it’ll bring pressure from a variety of areas when needed. Notre Dame improved by leaps and bounds in pass protection last season, but it’ll have a challenge on its hands with pass rushing terrors Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped each extremely dangerous. Notre Dame will have to show a little bit of balance to keep the Pack defense guessing, but it’s going to be tempting to throw, throw, and throw some more to try to keep pace with the Kaepernick-led rushing game that should crank out over 250 yards.
Why Notre Dame might win: 119 out of 119. Even with a pass rush that was among the best in America, the Nevada pass defense still finished dead last in 2008 giving up 312 yards per game. With so many problems stopping the pass, the squishy-soft run defense was overlooked. Yes, the Pack finished sixth in the nation against the run, but that’s misleading. Every offense spent all of its time and energy throwing the ball, and when teams wanted to power it, they did. Notre Dame will want to exploit the mediocre secondary, but it’ll be able to control the clock and the game with its ground game, too.
Who to watch: Who’ll be better, the Notre Dame receivers or the Wolf Pack running backs? Along with Kaepernick, a 1,130-yard rushing quarterback last year, Vai Taua was a terror rushing for 1,521 yards with 15 scores. Adding to the attack is Luke Lippincott, the star rusher of 2007 who missed last year with a knee injury. He’ll be used as a tight end and at fullback to go along with an occasional tailback work. For Notre Dame, Golden Tate will try to build on the Hawaii Bowl performance when he cranked out 177 yards and three touchdowns against Hawaii. Irish fans know all about him, but this could be the game when he grows into All-America-level status.
What will happen: It’ll be an entertaining shootout with each team coming up with huge numbers. Notre Dame won’t look like a world-beater, and there will be some who’ll grumble that it took so much work to get by some team named Nevada, but it’ll be a strong, sound victory that’ll be a good first step to what will be a bounce-back season for the program. It’ll be a tough game and then the Irish will open it up late.
CFN Prediction: Notre Dame 44 … Nevada 27 ... Line: Notre Dame -14
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 4
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Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 1, Part 2