2009 WAC Fearless Predictions
Week 2 ... Sept. 13 Games
Boise State |
Fresno State |
Hawaii
|
Idaho
|
Louisiana Tech
Nevada |
New Mexico St |
San Jose
State |
Utah State
WAC Fearless Predictions
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Week 1
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Week 2, Part 2
Game of the Week
Fresno State (1-0) at Wisconsin (1-0),
12:00 EST, Saturday, September 12, ESPN
Why to watch: When these two lined up early last year, it was expected to be one of the special under-the-radar games of first part of the season. Fresno State was supposed to be loaded and ready to live up to all the Pat Hill bluster, while Wisconsin had been just on the outside of the BCS and was looking for a big road win to kick off a run to a possible Big Ten title. While the Badgers won a very hard-fought, very entertaining 13-10 game, it was the beginning of the end as the collapse against Michigan came the following week and the wheels fell off from there. Fresno State was equally disappointing in a 7-5 season, but now the two teams appear to have found their mojo. Wisconsin beat Northern Illinois 28-20, and had to hang on late after taking the foot off the gas, but was fantastic for 50 minutes, playing better than it had at any time in the 2008 season. Fresno State played UC Davis, which was supposed to be an easy win, and it was nearly perfect on both sides of the ball showing off the speed and depth that could make this the season that Bulldog fans have been waiting for. Like last year, this will be a better test for Wisconsin than it might seem on a national scale, while Fresno State always likes to make big things happen in BCS team’s houses.
Why Fresno State might win: Wisconsin only gave up 100 rushing yards last week, but struggled late once the super-quick Meco Brown took over. Brown ran 11 times for 64 yards and sparked the comeback attempt, and Chad Spann closed out the drives with two short scores. The Fresno State running game is better. Far, far better, and it should be able to control the game for stretches against a Badger defense that vows to be better than it was last year, but still has to show it can play a full sixty minutes. Ryan Mathews could have a tremendous game and could have a few big runs that could change the game.
Why Wisconsin might win: Is the Fresno State run defense any better? It was abysmal throughout last season getting destroyed for 210 yards per game, and that includes games against New Mexico State (-9 yards) and San Jose State (-5 yards). The Bulldogs only gave up 43 yards to UC Davis, but Wisconsin isn’t UC Davis. The Badger ground game was held to just 154 yards in last year’s win over the Bulldogs, but it should be able to pound away without much of a problem against a feisty, but mediocre Fresno State defensive front, and unlike past years …
Who to watch: … the Badgers have a passing game. It’s impossible to understate just how terrific Scott Tolzien was against NIU compared to what the team had to deal with in 2008. The new UW starting quarterback threw two interceptions, but he completed 15-of-20 passes for 257 yards and a score while showing decisive zip on his passes and the willingness to step into his throws in the face of a rush. Also getting work was freshman Curt Phillips, who’s considered the star of the future, completing 3-of-5 passes for 24 yards while adding a rushing element with 34 yards on four carries. Last year would’ve been far different if the Badgers had either one of them under center.
What will happen: Fresno State will bring a big bag of knuckles and a bad attitude, but Wisconsin appears to be back to being Wisconsin again. Even so, this should be a tight battle with the Badgers hanging on late with a soul-crushing drive to eat up the clock.
CFN Prediction: Wisconsin 23 … Fresno State 20...
Line: Wisconsin -8
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) …
3.5
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Free Expert Football Predictions
Idaho (1-0) at Washington (0-1),3:30 EST, Saturday, September 12
Why to watch: Even in a 31-23 loss to LSU, Washington dispatched a message that it was no longer going to roll over and play dead in the face of elite opponents. With Steve Sarkisian on the sidelines and Nick Holt as his first defensive coordinator, the Huskies played with a refreshing level of energy and better execution, outgaining the Tigers 478-321. It wasn’t the ah-ha moment the program desperately craves, but it was something to build on over the next three months. Idaho debuted surprisingly strong as well, handling New Mexico State, 21-6, to open with a win for the first time in a decade. It was the Vandals’ first victory outside Moscow in almost three years, giving a much-needed boost to a school that won just three games in 2007 and 2008 combined.
Why Idaho might win: The offense shows a fair amount of balance, veteran leadership, and potential. Junior Nathan Enderle is back for his third season as the starting quarterback, where he’s developed a nice rhythm with receivers Max Komar and Preston Davis. On the ground, Idaho has two viable options, Princeton McCarty and Deonte Jackson, who combined for 144 yards on just 21 carries and will be running behind NFL certainty Mike Iupati. Washington has a long way to go on defense, and can be particularly vulnerable when the ball is in the air.
Why Washington might win: The opener didn’t expose just how feeble Idaho is on defense. The Huskies will. This is a different offense with the return of QB Jake Locker, who missed most of 2008 with an injury. He gives U-Dub the run-pass option, and his once-green supporting cast is beginning to grow up. Redshirt freshman RB Chris Polk had 90 yards rushing and 34 yards receiving against a tough LSU defense, and receivers Devin Aguilar, James Johnson, and Kavario Middleton are just beginning to get comfortable in this offense. Racking up almost 500 yards versus a quality SEC D is a promising sign for this up-and-coming unit.
Who to watch: Numbers hardly do justice to how well Washington DT Alameda Ta'amu played to start his second season in Seattle. The unusually quick 348-pounder routinely shot the gap and required double-teams, disrupting the LSU ground game. He’s one the Huskies’ best answers to their defensive woes and a rising young star in the Pac-10.
What will happen: The long wait is over. Washington is about to snap its 15-game losing streak, the longest in the nation. After going stride-for-stride with much better athletes a week ago, the Huskies will have few problems getting the offense going, turning loose Locker and his young weapons. They’ll revel in a rare chance to be the bully, rolling up 500 yards and putting the game out of reach shortly after halftime.
CFN Prediction: Washington 35 … Idaho 16 ... Line:
Washington -21
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The
Fresh Beat Band 1) … 1.5
...
Free Expert Football Predictions
Louisiana Tech (0-1) at Navy (0-1), 3:30 EST, Saturday, September 12
Why to watch: The two teams are better than 0-1. Navy played its heart out and came within a heartbeat, and a misfire on a two-point conversion, from being tied with Ohio State in the final few minutes. The Midshipmen showed stunning offensive balance, even though it only threw the ball 13 times, while the defense hung tough with a team that thinks it has a shot at playing for the national title. While Navy’s loss was a heart-wrencher, Louisiana Tech’s loss to Auburn was a bit of a stunner. All of a sudden, the Auburn team that couldn’t do anything right offensively last season turned into a juggernaut, and the Louisiana Tech team that was supposed to be matured and ready to roll out of the gate was ineffective and downright awful. With Nicholls State up next, followed up by a home game against a bad Hawaii team, Tech can go on a nice run if it beats Navy, while the Midshipmen have to deal with Pitt next week. They might need this game to not have to worry down the road about a possible bowl bid.
Why Louisiana Tech might win: It might not have shown it last week, but the Bulldog defensive front really is supposed to be solid. The line has talent and experience, and the linebacking corps is very quick and very athletic. Able to move well enough to be able to act and react against the Navy option, the Bulldog linebackers should be disciplined and should be able to win its share of battles. It’ll also help to have the game film from the Ohio State loss; the Navy passing game might not be the surprise it was for the Buckeyes.
Why Navy might win: Yeah, the Louisiana Tech defense is supposed to be good, but it was flat-out awful against the Auburn running game that rolled for 301 yards. Losing to the Tigers is one thing, but to get no production whatsoever against an attack that’s supposed to need a few weeks to find itself is a whole other issue. If Tech couldn’t handle the Auburn ground game, then it won’t have a prayer against what Navy wants to do.
Who to watch: Navy … pass-ing, game? What’s that? Not only did Ricky Dobbs run for 83 yards and two touchdowns as the strong, decisive playmaker who did everything right against the Buckeyes outside of a bad two-point conversion attempt; he completed 9-of-13 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. He doesn’t have a huge arm, but he has an effective one that’s able to take advantage of single coverage and make secondaries pay. The Tech defensive backs are going to be a problem early on, and Dobbs could take advantage.
What will happen: Navy won’t be stopped. The anemic Tech offense will finally start to produce, but it won’t be able to keep up with a Midshipman running game that will control the clock and the game. It’ll be close for three quarters before the game is blown wide open in the fourth. A late Tech touchdown will make the final score deceptive.
CFN Prediction: Navy 34 … Louisiana Tech 27 ... Line: Navy -7.5
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) … 1.5
Hawaii (1-0) at Washington State (0-1),7:00 EST, Saturday, September 12
Why to watch: Major upsets aside, Washington State has two legitimate chances to win games in 2009. This is one of them. The Cougars and head coach Paul Wulff are mired in a nasty rebuilding project, with a timetable that’ll be measured in multiple years. While there were hints of progress in the opener compared to last season’s abomination, Wazzu still got hammered by Stanford, 39-13. Hawaii cracked the seal on its second season under Greg McMackin by defeating Central Arkansas, but it certainly easy. The Warriors needed a touchdown pass in the final minute and a late stand just to survive, 25-20.
Why Hawaii might win: June Jones and Colt Brennan have been around for over a year, but the Warriors can still put up. The key will be to protect the ball, which happen infrequently last weekend. Hawaii turned it over four times, minimizing a 380-yard, three-touchdown effort from QB Greg Alexander. He has a live arm, playmaking WR Greg Salas, and a veteran line anchored by Rimington Award candidate John Estes. Whether it’s by land or air, Washington State is bankrupt on defense, lacking any true stoppers.
Why Washington State might win: The Cougars showed a glimmer of hope on offense in Week 1, getting a crisp effort from QB Kevin Lopina and 97 yards on the ground from the combination of Dwight Tardy and Cal-transfer James Montgomery. The positive trend will continue against a Hawaii defense that lost nine starters from a unit that was already flimsy. The Warriors had just two sacks on Central Arkansas, so Lopina should have enough time to find 6-4 Jared Karstetter and track star Jeshua Anderson.
Who to watch: Hey, if you’re compelled by fundamentally-sound play at the pivot, get to Seattle by Saturday evening. Not only does this game feature Estes, but also Kenny Alfred, the glue of the Washington State offensive line and a fellow member of the Rimington watch list. If this game gets sloppy at least the snaps should be crisp and mistake-free.
What will happen: Washington State knows it needs to seize the opportunity in front of it because it won’t come often this fall. Even in losing, the Cougars played with better execution in the opener, especially on offense. Lopina has earned a longer leash with his play and the line helped pave the way for five plays of at least 20 yards. Wazzu will get just enough from this unit to pick up a shot-in-the-arm victory.
CFN Prediction: Washington State 26 … Hawaii 22 ... Line:
Washington State -2
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The
Fresh Beat Band 1) … 2
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Free Expert Football Predictions