2009 Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
Week 2 ... Sept. 13 Games
Arkansas State |
Florida Atlantic
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Florida International
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MTSU
North Texas
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Troy
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UL Lafayette
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UL Monroe |
Western Kentucky
Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
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Week 1
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Week 2, Part 2
Game of the Week
Troy (0-1) at Florida (1-0), 12:20 EST, Saturday, September 12, ESPN GamePlan
Why to watch: It’s not Charleston Southern, but it’s not exactly supposed to be a big test for the No. 1 team in the country after Troy got blown away by Bowling Green last week. The Trojans, considered by most to be the preseason favorites to win the Sun Belt title, couldn’t handle the Falcon passing game and got inconsistent play from the offense. Even so, the team is used to playing in hostile conditions and isn’t bad at playing the big boys tough from time to time. The last time they were in an SEC stadium was last season, when they had LSU on the ropes before getting their doors blown off in a wild fourth quarter. Florida did what it was supposed to do last week to Charleston Southern in a nice exhibition, and while it’ll try to do the one-game-at-a-time thing, Tennessee comes to town next weekend.
Why Troy might win: While it didn’t show it last week, the Troy offense has the type of experience and talent to potentially give the Gators a bit of a scare. The Trojan offensive line should be the best in the Sun Belt, while the defensive front, led by Brandon Lang, has enough speed and quickness to potentially be disruptive in the backfield. Troy is used to seeing the spread every day in practice and it’s not going to see Florida do anything different. If the Trojan offense can find a little balance and keep the chains moving, something it couldn’t do against the Falcons, this might be a little bit of a battle.
Why Florida might win: Bowling Green’s passing game ripped through the Trojan secondary. The Troy defensive front seven has the potential to be fantastic, but the secondary is the weak link, and it showed with Freddie Barnes catching 15 passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns, and Tyler Sheehan throwing for 339 yards and two scores. Florida won’t just win using the passing game; it’ll be able to turn decent plays into big ones once the speedy backs get past the second level.
Who to watch: Florida’s Brandon Spikes is the favorite to win the Butkus Award as the nation’s best linebacker, but Troy’s Boris Lee isn’t far off. Having to do more over the first two games with his all-star running mate, Bear Woods, suspended, Lee has to be all over the field and he has to be the one who keeps Tebow and his backfield in check. Last week, Florida ran for 369 yards and five touchdowns helped by several big plays. Lee, who made ten stops in last week’s loss, has to change that and be the first line of defense.
What will happen: Troy will make this interesting for just over a half, and then the woes on offense will be too much to overcome. Florida will go on a nice run in the third quarter and allow everyone to start focusing on how to properly yell at Lane Kiffin.
CFN Prediction: Florida 45 … Troy 10 ... Line: Florida -36.5
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) … 2
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Free Expert Football Predictions
Arkansas State (1-0) at Nebraska (1-0), 2:00 EST, Saturday, September 12
Why to watch: Nebraska already had its way with one of the favorites for the Sun Belt title, Florida Atlantic in a 49-3 pasting, and now it’ll try to do the same to one of the others. Arkansas State is loaded on offense and has a dangerous, disruptive defense, at least among Sun Belt teams, but can it step up and give the Huskers a push? QB Corey Leonard is one of the nation’s best dual-threat playmakers, while Reggie Arnold might be the best running back you’ve never seen and DE Alex Carrington could be the best defensive end in this game. The Red Wolves got their scrimmage game out of the way with a 61-0 destruction of Mississippi Valley State that could’ve been a whole bunch worse after getting up 40-0 at halftime. ASU’s game of the year might be next week when it hosts Troy, while Nebraska will be using this as a tune-up to try to get ready for another dangerous, mobile quarterback, Tyrod Taylor and his Virginia Tech team next week.
Why Arkansas State might win: Is Nebraska ready to handle an extremely pesky, extremely effective ASU ground game? The Huskers allowed 122 rushing yards last week to an FAU attack that’s not exactly a juggernaut on the ground, while the combination of Leonard and Arnold provide a dangerous 1-2 punch that can work inside and out. ASU ran for 358 yards and eight touchdowns last week, with Arnold accounting for four of them, but …
Why Nebraska might win: Nebraska isn’t Mississippi Valley State. The Husker defense wasn’t a total brick wall against FAU, but it only gave up three points and it didn’t unleash the hounds into the backfield. That could change this week as the defensive front will need to do more to get into the backfield and will need to get consistent pressure on Leonard whether he’s running or passing. ASU’s offensive line will be good in time, but it’s one of the team’s areas of rebuilding early in the season. Defensively, the ASU secondary can move, but it’s not all that big and could have problems if the Nebraska receivers start to get physical both in the passing game and when they’re blocking downfield.
Who to watch: Nebraska fans can appreciate special runners, and they’ll get to see a great one in Arnold. The senior has been consistent and effective for the last three seasons, running for more than 1,000 yards in each with quickness, toughness, and a good nose for taking a short play and making it a gamebreaker. He might not get 100 yards on the Nebraska defense, but if he’s able to get around 70, he got 72 against Alabama last season, and if he’s able to take the focus off of Leonard, the Huskers could be in for a fight. Nebraska has a nice runner of its own in Roy Helu, Jr., one of the nation’s hottest backs at the end of the 2008 regular season with 157 yards against Oklahoma and 166 yards against Colorado as part of an impressive four-game stretch. He started off this season with a 152-yard, three touchdown day on just 16 carries against FAU, and he’ll be the focal point of the offense against the Red Wolves.
What will happen: As good as the Arkansas State offense is, and as good as the numbers are going to be at the end of the year, it can bog down from time to time against the stronger defenses. The Red Wolves will put up more of a battle than Florida Atlantic did, but Nebraska will methodically work its way up and down the field for 60 minutes with a balanced attack that will be too much for ASU’s back seven to handle.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 34 … Arkansas State 16 ... Line: Nebraska -23.5
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) … 2
FIU (0-0) at Alabama (1-0), 7:00 EST, Saturday, September 12, ESPN GamePlan
Why to watch: Alabama came out and rocked Virginia Tech in a more one-sided game than the 34-24 final score might appear. The Tide running game steamrolled over the Hokies, while the run defense kept Tyrod Taylor and the Tech ground game under wraps. This begins the Sun Belt portion of Alabama’s schedule with North Texas next week after the expected scrimmage against FIU, but the Golden Panthers are rested and have a Tide team that could be on letdown alert after starting out with such an impressive win. Mario Cristobal’s team starts the season with four road games in the first five, and it has to adopt a road-warrior mentality now before going to Rutgers next week.
Why FIU might win: Unlike Virginia Tech, FIU might have a real live passing game to deal with. Veteran QB Paul McCall has just enough talent and experience to hold up against the Bama pass rush, and he has the weapons on the outside, led by T.Y. Hilton, to potentially hit on a few big plays against a secondary that didn’t have to worry much about Tyrod Taylor getting the ball deep.
Why Alabama might win: FIU’s biggest question coming into the season? The rebuilt defensive line. Uh-oh. Alabama gouged the Hokie defensive front, one of the best in the nation, for 268 rushing yards and spent the better part of the evening beating it up. FIU will have to get extremely creative to generate any sort of a pass rush, and there might be little to no hope of keeping the Tide under 300 rushing yards unless ...
Who to watch: … Mark Ingram isn’t 100%. The bruising sophomore was the star of the opening day game with 150 yards and a touchdown, and three catches for 35 yards and a score, but he hurt his knee. From all indications, it’s not going to be a problem, but the coaching staff would like to limit his workload. Making matters worse is his overall healthy after getting socked by the flu this week. In a perfect world for Bama, this becomes a blowout right away and super-recruit Trent Richardson can get his feet wet after running three times for ten yards against Tech. Roy Upchurch will also likely play a bigger rushing role.
What will happen: FIU will get a few scores just to make the Tide defense grouchy, but they won’t be nearly enough to overcome the struggles on the lines. Alabama will run all over the Golden Panther defensive front, while the Tide offensive line should pave the way for a second straight big game.
CFN Prediction: Alabama 41 … FIU 10 ... Line: Alabama -33.5
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) … 1.5
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Free Expert Football Predictions
Ohio (0-1) at North Texas (1-0), 7:00 EST, Saturday, September 12
Why to watch: Florida Atlantic got whacked by Nebraska on opening day, Troy got blown out by Ball State, and ULM got destroyed by Texas. Considering the Sun Belt wins came over FCS teams, that makes the Week One winner for the Sun Belt’s best victory … North Texas?! Ball State is supposed to be rebuilding after losing head coach Brady Hoke to San Diego State and QB Nate Davis to the NFL, but still, for as woeful a program as UNT has been over the past few years, to go into Muncie and come out with a 20-10 win is huge for head coach Todd Dodge and the long-suffering Mean Green fans. Now it’s on to another MAC team, Ohio, who should be in the MAC title race throughout the year and is coming off a tough home loss to Connecticut. The Bobcats get Cal Poly next week, while any fun UNT is currently having will end against Alabama, but each one will need to focus on the task at hand. A Mean Green win might prove the program is for real, while an Ohio victory is a must to have any real hope of a bowl appearance.
Why Ohio might win: Ohio just dealt with a strong running game and it still almost won. North Texas is supposed to be a high-octane passing team, but it was able to beat Ball State on the ground with Cam Montgomery and the scrambling of QB Riley Dodge. UConn’s ground attack is better and more physical, and even thought the Huskies cranked out 259 yards, Ohio stayed in the game. The Bobcat defensive front should be able to get into the backfield and provide more pressure than Dodge saw against Ball State, while a mobile Boo Jackson should give the mediocre UNT defensive front fits.
Why North Texas might win: Does Ohio know how to win? There’s enough talent and experience in place to be a lot better, but the Bobcats went 4-8 last year and was only able to win on the road against woeful Kent State and Miami teams in the MAC. North Texas should be able to throw the ball when it needs to, and while it’s not going to run as effectively this week as it did against the Cardinals, there should be enough of a balance to cross up the Bobcat D. That balance mostly needs to come from …
Who to watch: Dodge. The star recruit of a few years ago, who came to UNT to play for his dad, Dodge showed why he might turn out to be the Sun Belt’s best player after completing 23-of-33 passes for 216 yards and a touchdown while running for 73 yards on 12 carries. He should start to open it up a big more through the air, but he’ll take what the Ohio defense gives him. Only a redshirt freshman, he still needs time and he still needs to learn the ropes, and before the Sun Belt opener against Middle Tennessee in a few weeks, he needs to maintain the high level of play he showed against the Cardinals.
What will happen: Dodge and Montgomery will combine for 200 rushing yards, and while Ohio will get at least 250 rushing yards of its own, it’ll also turn the ball over in a few key moments to swing the tide the other way. The winner of the turnover battle will win in what should be an entertaining, even game.
CFN Prediction: North Texas 26 … Ohio 23 ... Line: ?????
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) … 1.5