2009 M-West Fearless Predictions
Week 2 ... Sept. 13 Games
Air Force |
BYU
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Colorado State
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New Mexico
San
Diego State |
TCU
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UNLV
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Utah
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Wyoming
Mountain West Fearless Predictions
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Week 1
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Week 2, Part 2
Game of the Week
TCU (0-0) at Virginia (0-1), 3:30 EST, ESPNU, Saturday, September 12
Why to watch: After Utah shocked Alabama in last year’s Sugar Bowl and BYU edged No. 3 Oklahoma in Week 1, the Mountain West is a sizzling commodity these days. TCU gets a chance to carry the league banner into Charlottesville this Saturday, while trying to back up its No. 16 ranking against an ACC opponent. The Horned Frogs inched up in the rankings, despite being one of the nation’s few idle teams last weekend. Life doesn’t get any easier for Virginia, which suffered a humiliating loss to William & Mary in the opener, a 26-14 implosion in front of the home crowd. If the Cavaliers can’t turn things around in a hurry, they’ll spend the next few months attempting to tune out incessant distractions regarding head coach Al Groh’s job security.
Why TCU might win: Even with a handful of starters being broken in, the defense will be among the most air-tight in the country. Head coach Gary Patterson will personally make sure of it. You simply can’t run the ball on the Horned Frogs, and attempting passes means having to contend with All-American DE Jerry Hughes, a blur off the edge. Virginia’s three-quarterback system produced seven turnovers and just 268 yards against William & Mary, sobering numbers as this ferocious TCU defense makes its way to the East coast.
Why Virginia might win: A glimmer of hope for the Cavaliers can be found in a defense that has quality on the front and back end. With Matt Conrath providing pressure up front and Ras-I Dowling and Chris Cook blanketing Frog receivers, it could be a long day for QB Andy Dalton. Virginia has typically been stout under Groh, and TCU isn’t exactly an explosive bunch. More methodical than prolific, the visitors will have to earn every first down against this disciplined D.
Who to watch: TCU likes to keep it relatively buttoned-down on offense, meaning RB Joseph Turner has a chance to rush for 1,000 yards in his final year. After sharing time for most of his career, the job is all his, provided a leg injury in the spring doesn’t cause any setbacks. When the Frogs wants some flash to offset Turner’s power, they’ll turn to redshirt freshman Ed Wesley, a 5-9, 185-pound cutback runner.
What will happen: The TCU offense is going to sputter in its first game of the year. In the end, it won’t matter. The defense will carry the Frogs to a comfortable road win, holding Virginia to under 250 yards, creating a handful of turnovers, and scoring a touchdown of its own. Dalton will play mistake-free behind center, while dynamite WR Jimmy Young will shake free from Dowling a couple of times to stretch out the Cavalier defense.
CFN Prediction: TCU 27 ... Virginia
9 ... Line:
TCU -11
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) …
2
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Free Expert Football Predictions
Texas (1-0) at Wyoming (1-0), 3:30 EST, Saturday, September 12
Why to watch: What is Texas doing going to Wyoming? This counts as the most difficult non-conference game on the Longhorn slate, with ULM, UTEP, and UCF coming to Austin, and it could be a trap with the revenge battle against Texas Tech coming up next week. Texas had no problem with ULM in a 59-20 win that showed off the speed and skill in the receiving corps, and the talent in the running back corps that should be able to take the pressure off Colt McCoy a bit. Wyoming is hardly special, but it has more than held its own against the big names. The Cowboys were able to beat Virginia at home in 2007, Ole Miss in 2004, and went to Tennessee last year and came away with a win last season. Texas is at a whole other level from any team UW has faced in years, but new head coach Dave Christensen can make a big splash if his team is merely competitive against the nation’s No. 2 team before going to Colorado next week.
Why Texas might win: The Wyoming secondary is awful. Even with a great pass rush provided by John Fletcher and the Cowboy defensive front, the secondary allowed 322 yards to Weber State last week in a way-too-close 29-22 win. Texas is making a point to take the rushing strain off of McCoy and allow him to bomb away a bit more, and he looked in midseason form last week completing 21-of-29 passes for 317 yards and two touchdowns, with an interception, against ULM. The Longhorn receiving corps should turn several short-to-midrange passes into home runs.
Why Wyoming might win: John Fletcher. Outside of some of the future NFL millionaires on the Oklahoma defensive front, Fletcher could be the most talented defensive lineman the Longhorns face all season long. A 3-4 defense tweener, the 275-pound senior is finally healthy and he showed that he’s all back full with two sacks, five tackles, a forced fumble, and a blocked kick last week as the leader of a defensive front that should provide more than a gentle breeze against McCoy. The only way Wyoming has any prayer of keeping this from being ugly is if Fletcher has the game of his life.
Who to watch: The Wyoming quarterback situation came down to four options throughout the offseason. And then the new coaching staff decided to throw a curve ball into the equation by choosing a fifth option, true freshman Austyn Carta-Samuels, a 6-2, 210-pound runner who gained 22 yards last week and completed 8-of-17 passes for 101 yards. That was against Weber State, and now he’ll have to deal with a Texas defense that will look like it’s going three steps faster. If he can’t handle it, there are several backups waiting to give it a try.
What will happen: It will take about a quarter, and then the floodgates will open thanks to a few ugly turnovers. Texas will shut down the UW running game and will make Carta-Samuels, or one of the other quarterbacks, try to produce by pushing the ball down the field, and the results won’t be pretty.
CFN Prediction: Texas 45 … Wyoming 6 ... Line: Texas -33
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) …
1.5
BYU (1-0) at Tulane (0-1), 3:30 EST, ESPN2, Saturday, September 12
Why to watch: Fresh off a monumental upset of No. 3 Oklahoma and looking forward to a high-profile visit from Florida State, BYU needs to keep its eye on the ball in New Orleans. Good luck with that one, Coach Mendenhall. The Cougars were the story of the opening weekend, shocking the world with a 14-13 win over the Sooners and rising all the way to No. 9 in the AP Poll. The staff and the players realize the celebration will be short-lived if they can’t get out of the Superdome with a victory. As expected, Tulane’s season got off to a rocky start. The Green Wave failed to measure up against one of the Conference USA elite, losing to Tulsa, 37-13. Bob Toledo has been looking for a turning point since arriving two years ago. A visit from a top 10 team could provide that opportunity.
Why BYU might win: Tulane’s inability to shut down a quality offense was on display Friday night, stiffening at times, but eventually giving way to more than 200 yards on the ground and through the air. The Cougars will be able to pick apart the Green Wave with similar balance, putting the ball in the hands of veteran QB Max Hall and allowing him to play catch with TE Dennis Pitta and receivers O'Neill Chambers and McKay Jacobson. Even if Harvey Unga is unable to go for a second straight week, BYU will look to work between the tackles with 214-pound Bryan Kariya.
Why Tulane might win: Can the BYU defense be air-tight for a second week in-a-row? The Green Wave is determined to dictate the answer to that question. Sophomore Joe Kemp is surrounded by a nice collection of playmakers, and should be more comfortable in his second start behind center. In RB Andre Anderson and WR Jeremy Williams, he has access to a couple of all-star-caliber talents, and WR Casey Robottom is a sure-handed security blanket on third down.
Who to watch: Tulsa rattled Kemp with non-stop pressure and a variety of different blitzes. BYU, which knocked out Sam Bradford Saturday evening, will follow the same blueprint. When DE Jan Jorgensen isn’t applying heat the traditional way, the Cougars will unleash LB Coleby Clawson in an effort to force the young hurler into turnovers and misguided throws.
What will happen: Fortunately for Mendenhall, he’s surrounded by a mature, even-keeled group of kids, who are less prone to wild swings of emotion. With what’s swirling around them, the Cougars will need to remain focused. A predictably slow start by BYU will be replaced by a couple of scoring strikes from Hall, a calming influence, who’ll once again top the 300-yard mark in passing.
CFN Prediction: BYU 45 … Tulane 17 ... Line:
BYU -18
Must See Rating: (Curb
Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat
Band 1) … 1.5
Air Force (1-0) at Minnesota (1-0), 7:00 EST, Saturday, September 12, Big 10 Network
Why to watch: If it’s possible, a building might be the reason to tune in, or at least give the game a passing glance before USC and Ohio State kicks off. The brand new TCF Bank Stadium on the University of Minnesota campus is one of college football’s new cathedrals, combining an intimate, old-school set up to go along with all the modern amenities. It’s an outdoor stadium, but it should be loud, Really loud. Now it’ll be up to Minnesota give the fans something to yell about after pulling out a thrilling season-opening overtime win at Syracuse. Air Force isn’t just going to lie down and die because the Gophers want to christen their new stadium with a bang. After opening up the year with a 72-0 nailbiter against Nicholls State, and with the Mountain West layups against New Mexico and San Diego State to follow, the Falcons can start out the season hot with a win in Minneapolis. The Gophers need to get the first win in their new park this week or they might have to wait a while. Cal rolls into town next week, and then the next home game is against Wisconsin in October.
Why Air Force might win: While Syracuse QB Greg Paulus didn’t run much, he showed enough mobility to bother the Minnesota defensive front. Able to make things happen on the move, he kept plays alive time and again, before eventually throwing a brain-cramping interception in overtime. If his athleticism gave Minnesota fits, then Air Force QB Tim Jefferson should be able to do whatever he wants. The Falcon offense was in high gear last week rushing for 474 yards, and while that might have been against poor Nicholls State, it was the tune-up needed to get the timing down. 72 points later, yeah, the offense is in sync.
Why Minnesota might win: The Air Force secondary might be the best the program has had in several years, but there isn’t expected to be much of a pass rush to help the cause even after generating two sacks and six tackles for loss last week. Minnesota QB Adam Weber is a veteran who’s able to handle himself well under pressure, he came through when needed late against the Orange, and he should be able to make the quick decisions needed to get the ball out of his hands to Eric Decker early and often. The two hooked up nine times against the Orange, and they should be able to torch the Air Force defensive backfield this week.
Who to watch: 14 different players got carries against Nicholls State and Jefferson completed 5-of-7 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown, but the key to the Falcon attack is going to be Jared Tew, a 6-0, 210-pound tweener who isn’t big enough to be a bruising fullback and isn’t fast enough to be a dangerous tailback. He ran just nine times last week, but he rumbled for 57 yards and three touchdowns. He needs to work effectively inside so Jefferson and the speedsters can fly on the outside.
What will happen: This is a dead-even game with the Air Force offense dangerous enough to put up a big number on the board, but Minnesota will come out roaring in the opening day of the new stadium, it’ll be able to run the ball more effectively on the Falcon defensive front than it was able to against Syracuse, and the Weber-to-Decker combination will end up coming through when needed. It’ll be a very entertaining, very tight game that comes down to the final moments.
CFN Prediction: Minnesota 27 … Air Force 21 ... Line: Minnesota -4
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) … 3
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Free Expert Football Predictions