2009 Ind & ND Fearless Predictions - Week 2

Previews and Predictions for the Week 2 Independent & Notre Dame Games.

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2009 Independent Fearless Predictions

Week 2 ... Sept. 13 Games

Army | Navy | Notre Dame 

Independent Fearless Predictions
- Week 1

Game of the Week

Notre Dame (1-0) at Michigan (1-0), 3:30 EST, Saturday, September 12, 3:30 ABC

Why to watch: They might not be back to the national title-level status the two greatest programs in the history of college football might be used to, but after each blew out their respective opponents in week one, the once-mighty, stop-the-world showdown has become relevant again.

Yes, Notre Dame only beat Nevada and Michigan only came up with a win over Western Michigan, but with the way the two powerhouse programs have struggled in recent years, with the Wolverines losing to Appalachian State and to Utah in back-to-back home openers, and with the Irish almost getting tagged by an awful San Diego State team in last year’s opener, to win their games by a combined score of 66 to 7 is big. Really big. And it’s not like the wins came over the Little Sisters of the Poor. Nevada is expected to be a legitimate player in the WAC title chase, while Western Michigan should be one of the three best teams in the MAC. But the wins went beyond just getting a nice blowout to kick things off; they were statements. They were victories that said that the two teams were tired of getting kicked around, and they’re not going to take it anymore. Now comes the next step in the progression.

Each of the storied programs needed to be torn down to be built back up, even if neither team’s coaching staff tempered expectations. There needed to be a new wave of talent brought in, it had to be developed, and there needed to be time to let the coaches, Notre Dame’s Charlie Weis and Michigan’s Rich Rodriguez, do their thing. Michigan is starting to get the right players in place to run Rodriguez’s system, but it’s going to take all year for everything to start to kick in, mainly because the stars, QBs Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson, are true freshmen. Notre Dame’s growing pains of the last few years appear to be paying off with all the stars, most notably, QB Jimmy Clausen, now hardened veterans.

Notre Dame has more to play for then Michigan, with the expectations set at BCS or Bust, and with a nasty game against Michigan State up next week and with USC lurking in mid-October. Michigan is still trying to fight its way through off-the-field issues, and no one is throwing out any hope of a Big Ten title season. But if RichRod and his team can pull off a big win at home this week, the chance will be there for a huge start with Eastern Michigan and Indiana up next.

Why Notre Dame might win: What’s the best way to stop Michigan’s offense? Stuff it before it gets started. Irish defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta likes to blitz, likes to be aggressive, and likes to make things happen in the backfield, and while the Irish didn’t come up with too many big plays last week against Nevada, registering two sacks and four tackles for loss, the results were sensational. Nevada was third in the nation in rushing last season averaging 278 yards per game, and it’s going to end up finishing in the top ten this year with a loaded backfield and a superior talent leading the way in QB Colin Kaepernick. Notre Dame didn’t just attack in the opener, it was disciplined in holding the Wolf Pack attack to a mere 153 rushing yards. Forcier and Robinson might be excellent, shifty runners for the Wolverine backfield, but Notre Dame has already faced a veteran spread attack and shut it down. It has the ability to do the same this week. However …

Why Michigan might win: … the Woverines have already faced a high-powered passing attack with a sensational quarterback, and they dominated. Western Michigan’s Tim Hiller will be a mid-to-late round NFL draft pick next year, and he has the weapons at his disposal from a passing attack that finished 11th in the nation, averaging 295 yards per game, to come up with a huge season. But last week, the Michigan defensive front was able to provide steady pressure, was able to force mistakes, and ended up holding Hiller and the Bronco attack to a mere 301 yards of total offense. While 263 of those yards came through the air, they came in comeback, trying-to-keep up mode being amassed in fizzled drives. Depth is an issue in the Michigan secondary, but for now, the defensive backfield is in good shape.
Who to watch: Is Jimmy Clausen for real or is this all a mirage. In his last two games, the Irish junior has completed 37-of-45 passes (82%) for 816 yards and nine touchdowns with no interceptions. However, Nevada had the nation’s worst pass defense last year, and it wasn’t expected to improve much coming into this season, and the other game was against a Hawaii secondary that got ripped to shreds by any passer with a pulse. This will be when Clausen shows what he’s really made of. He’s the two-year starter, and he’s the veteran who has been through the wars and the lean times. He has to be the steady playmaker who can carry the team through the first really big game the Irish has had an honest chance of winning since he arrived two seasons ago.

For Michigan, it’s all about Forcier. Robinson will get his carries here and there, he’ll have to run the ball to help make up for an injured RB Brandon Minor, who’s trying to get past an ankle injury, but this will soon be Forcier’s offense. The exact type of quarterback Rodriguez needed, the true freshman from California completed 13-of-20 passes for 179 yards and three touchdowns, and he ran for 37 yards, in last week’s win. Most importantly, at least for now, he didn’t make any big mistakes. He and Robinson have added a spark to Michigan’s step and the team’s energy level, and this might be a case of these two being so young that they don’t quite realize how big this game is.
What will happen: Michigan is going to be good enough to challenge for a spot in the top four in the final Big Ten standings, but it still needs some seasoning. Notre Dame is already there, with a mature team that should keep the big Michigan big runs to a minimum and with a steady passing attack that will hit two big home runs to take control of the game.
CFN Prediction: Notre Dame 28 … Michigan 16 ... Line: Notre Dame -3.5
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) … 5
- Free Expert Football Predictions 

Duke (0-1) at Army (1-0),12:00 EST, CBS College Sports Network, Saturday, September 12

Why to watch: So much for Duke gradually turning the corner and taking a step closer to the postseason. The Blue Devils opened with a half-hearted home loss to Richmond, which doesn’t bode well for a program that can’t afford to drop its few winnable games. David Cutcliffe better fix his team’s problems fast, or else progress might be delayed for yet another year. On the opposite spectrum is Army, which knocked off Eastern Michigan, snapping a 12-game losing streak on opening days. It also marked the dawn of a new era on the Hudson, with Rich Ellerson making his debut as the coach and Trent Steelman becoming the first freshman in academy history to start an opener at quarterback.
Why Duke might win: Amid all the concerns in Durham, the passing game isn’t one of them. Veteran QB Thaddeus Lewis was one of the few bright spots in Week 1, throwing for 350 yards and two scores without a turnover. Austin Kelly and Johnny Williams lead a young and athletic set of receivers that’ll give fits to an average Black Knight secondary.
Why Army might win: How will the Blue Devils hold up against an offense that’s determined to run the ball right at it and fresh off a 300-yard effort? Army will show Duke different looks on the ground, mixing in a wave of different runners, like Kingsley Ehie, Patrick Mealy, Jameson Carter, and CeDarius Williams. This offense has a knack for wearing defenses down, especially early in the year. If the Devils don’t correct their egregious special teams problems, the hole they’ll dig will again be neck-deep.
Who to watch: DE Josh McNary and DT Victor Ugenyi are two of the Black Knights most likely to flourish in a double-eagle flex defense predicated on speed and disruption. In the opener with Eastern Michigan, the pair combined for 14 tackles and five sacks, flushing Andy Schmitt from the pocket regularly. A sub par Duke offensive line will have problems keeping these guys out of Lewis’ face.
What will happen: Regardless of the opponent, don’t underestimate the value of an early win for Army. This is suddenly a more confident team, looking to get to 2-0 for the first time since 1996. In a close, low-scoring affair, the Black Knights will play keep-away on offense, while confusing the Duke attack with multiple looks and an attacking, ball-hawking style. Turnovers and time of possession will be the difference in a toss-up game. .
CFN Prediction: Army 24 ... Duke 19 ... Line: Army -2
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) … 3.5
- Free Expert Football Predictions 

Louisiana Tech (0-1) at Navy (0-1), 3:30 EST, Saturday, September 12

Why to watch: The two teams are better than 0-1. Navy played its heart out and came within a heartbeat, and a misfire on a two-point conversion, from being tied with Ohio State in the final few minutes. The Midshipmen showed stunning offensive balance, even though it only threw the ball 13 times, while the defense hung tough with a team that thinks it has a shot at playing for the national title. While Navy’s loss was a heart-wrencher, Louisiana Tech’s loss to Auburn was a bit of a stunner. All of a sudden, the Auburn team that couldn’t do anything right offensively last season turned into a juggernaut, and the Louisiana Tech team that was supposed to be matured and ready to roll out of the gate was ineffective and downright awful. With Nicholls State up next, followed up by a home game against a bad Hawaii team, Tech can go on a nice run if it beats Navy, while the Midshipmen have to deal with Pitt next week. They might need this game to not have to worry down the road about a possible bowl bid.
Why Louisiana Tech might win: It might not have shown it last week, but the Bulldog defensive front really is supposed to be solid. The line has talent and experience, and the linebacking corps is very quick and very athletic. Able to move well enough to be able to act and react against the Navy option, the Bulldog linebackers should be disciplined and should be able to win its share of battles. It’ll also help to have the game film from the Ohio State loss; the Navy passing game might not be the surprise it was for the Buckeyes.
Why Navy might win: Yeah, the Louisiana Tech defense is supposed to be good, but it was flat-out awful against the Auburn running game that rolled for 301 yards. Losing to the Tigers is one thing, but to get no production whatsoever against an attack that’s supposed to need a few weeks to find itself is a whole other issue. If Tech couldn’t handle the Auburn ground game, then it won’t have a prayer against what Navy wants to do.
Who to watch: Navy … pass-ing, game? What’s that? Not only did Ricky Dobbs run for 83 yards and two touchdowns as the strong, decisive playmaker who did everything right against the Buckeyes outside of a bad two-point conversion attempt; he completed 9-of-13 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. He doesn’t have a huge arm, but he has an effective one that’s able to take advantage of single coverage and make secondaries pay. The Tech defensive backs are going to be a problem early on, and Dobbs could take advantage.
What will happen: Navy won’t be stopped. The anemic Tech offense will finally start to produce, but it won’t be able to keep up with a Midshipman running game that will control the clock and the game. It’ll be close for three quarters before the game is blown wide open in the fourth. A late Tech touchdown will make the final score deceptive.
CFN Prediction: Navy 34 … Louisiana Tech 27 ... Line: Navy -7.5
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) … 1.5