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2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 2 ... Sept. 12 Games
Cincinnati
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Connecticut
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Louisville
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Pittsburgh
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Rutgers
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South
Florida |
Syracuse
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West
Virginia
Big East Fearless Predictions
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Week 1
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Week 2, Part 2
Game of the Week
East Carolina (1-0) at West Virginia (1-0),3:30 EST, ESPN360, Saturday, September 12
Why to watch: Revenge will be on the minds of West Virginia when East Carolina visits this Saturday, the product of a humbling 24-3 loss in Greenville last September. The Mountaineers failed to impress in their opener with Liberty, winning 33-20, yet exiting the weekend with as many question marks as answers. No one is exactly sure how to size up the program these days, but a visit from a veteran Pirate team could start providing some clues. East Carolina had issues of its own last Saturday, barely escaping Armanti Edwards-less Appalachian State, 29-24. After building a 22-point lead, the Pirates gave up the final 17 points, yet avoided being the hunted. A road win over one of the higher-profile Big East members would be another building block for Skip Holtz and the defending Conference USA champs.
Why East Carolina might win: The Pirates didn’t lose very much from the squad that opened last year by shocking Virginia Tech and West Virginia and closed it by winning a league title. It’s an experienced, well-coached team that won’t wilt in the face of a raucous road crowd. East Carolina presents a major challenge to a Mountaineer offensive line in transition. Yeah, it didn’t allow Jarrett Brown to get sacked, but Liberty isn’t home to anyone resembling DE C.J. Wilson or massive tackles Linval Joseph and Jay Ross. These stingy Pirates silenced Pat White a year ago, so a reprisal of that effort is certainly possible.
Why West Virginia might win: Sure, there were some breakdowns on Saturday, especially when Flame WR Mike Brown touched the ball, but this remains a solid Mountaineer D that’ll keep East Carolina in check. The Pirate offense went AWOL in the second half of its opener and lacks the zip to beat an attacking West Virginia unit. Linemen Scooter Berry and Julian Miller, and linebackers Reed Williams and J.T. Thomas held form a rugged front seven that’ll clamp down on the ECU ground game. If the Pirates have problems running the ball, it’s asking too much of QB Patrick Pinkney to win the game with his arm.
Who to watch: While the numbers may not have been otherworldly, Brown was crisp in his debut as the heir apparent to White at quarterback. He went 19-of-26 for 243 yards, adding 69 yards and a score on the ground. Van Eskridge and the rest of the East Carolina secondary provide a new challenge that the senior must navigate. Jock Sanders will be his preferred target, but he has to do a better job of spreading the ball around to move the chains on this defense.
What will happen: This is going to be a four-quarter battle for West Virginia. There’s just no way to escape it. The talent gap between the schools isn’t as wide as many would assume, and the visitors arrive battle-tested and fundamentally sound. The Mountaineer defense will keep the Pirates in check long enough for RB Noel Devine to provide the go-ahead burst in a game that should be competitive for 60 minutes.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 24 … East Carolina 17 ... Line:
West Virginia -6
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The
Fresh Beat Band 1) … 3.5
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Free Expert Football Predictions
Syracuse (0-1) at Penn State (1-0),12:00 EST, Big Ten Network, Saturday, September 12
Why to watch: Penn State and Syracuse, a pair of former Eastern rivals headed in opposite directions, renew acquaintances in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions were as sharp as they needed to be in the opener versus Akron, jumping out to a 31-0 halftime lead before coasting and emptying the bench in the final 30 minutes. No. 9 Penn State has two more weekends to address concerns, mainly on the offensive line and in the secondary, before the conference schedule kicks off in earnest. The Orange darn near bagged a Big Ten upset last weekend before bowing to Minnesota, 23-20, in overtime. Still, with Greg Paulus at quarterback and Doug Marrone on the sidelines for the first time, the program showed more fight and determination than in recent years. If Syracuse wants to energize a sleepy base, hanging with Penn State on the road would be a nice place to start.
Why Syracuse might win: Unlike a year ago, when the Orange got throttled 55-13, this edition is not going to crumble at the sight of Beaver Stadium. Remember, Paulus played in a ton of big games as the Duke point guard, and many holdovers return from the team that went on the road to shock Notre Dame last November. The rebuilt Penn State offensive line will have more problems than a week ago, trying to contain NT Arthur Jones and LB Ryan Gillum.
Why Penn State might win: The Lion offense will roll at will in the face of a really bad Syracuse defense. Darryl Clark was sharp a week ago, throwing for 353 yards and three scores, and has started to build some chemistry with his new receivers. Derek Moye, Graham Zug, and Chaz Powell all made plays in the passing game, which bodes well for the entire offense. Toss in the running of Evan Royster and Stephon Green, and the Orange will be defenseless. On defense, Jared Odrick and the rest of the Penn State front seven will be no match for an average Syracuse front wall.
Who to watch: So far, so good on the return of Penn State LB Sean Lee from last year’s devastating knee injury. The senior had seven tackles and a couple of tackles for loss, struggling to dial down his excitement for being back in action. He got unexpected help on Saturday from sophomore Nate Stupar, who stepped in for an injured Navorro Bowman and collected a team-high 12 tackles.
What will happen: Penn State took it easy on Akron last weekend. Don’t expect similar generosity when Syracuse makes its way to State College. The Lions will begin to slowly build to a boil as the competition ratchets up, smoking the Orange for three quarters before calling on the reserves. Jeremy Boone punted twice last week. Clark and his mates on offense will make sure he doesn’t exceed that number this Saturday.
CFN Prediction: Penn State 44 … Syracuse 10 ... Line:
Penn State -29
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) …
2
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Free Expert Football Predictions
North Carolina (1-0) at Connecticut (1-0),12:00 EST, ESPNU, Saturday, September 12
Why to watch: North Carolina and Connecticut meet for a second straight year, both looking to gain a head of steam long before conference play begins. Unlike last season’s opener, when the Tar Heels nearly gagged against McNeese State, they made quick work of The Citadel on Saturday, coasting to a 40-6 rout after a slow start. With a challenging three-week sprint ahead of it, Carolina needs to hit its stride on offense, beginning with this week’s trip to Hartford. The Huskies return home after withstanding a valiant effort from Ohio on the road. Perennially overlooked in the Big East hierarchy, an upset of the nation’s 19th-ranked team would serve national notice that another program needs to be added to the list of BCS bowl contenders.
Why North Carolina might win: To beat the athletic Tar Heel defense, you’ve got to have some semblance of a passing attack. Connecticut just isn’t there yet. New starter Zach Frazer was miserable in his debut, going 11-of-24 for 127 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Huskies boast a terrific running tandem of Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon, but its space will be limited if Carolina can press linebackers Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter closer to the line of scrimmage. Plus, the line, headed by Marvin Austin, Robert Quinn, and Cam Thomas, is liable to maul an average Connecticut front wall.
Why Connecticut might win: Hey, it’s a no-name group, but the Husky defense has a habit of doing more with less, year after year. North Carolina has issues of its own on offense, namely an average line, a green set of receivers, and the inconsistency of QB T.J. Yates, who’ll be introduced to DE Lindsey Witten and an athletic trio of linebackers. Save for a 23-point outburst in the second quarter, the Heels looked like the same team that’s had problems converting in the red zone and on third downs. Moving the chains won’t get any easier against the disciplined, sure-tackling Connecticut D.
Who to watch: Saturday’s game-within-the-game pits Carolina RB Shaun Draughn, the team’s best offensive weapon, against an underrated set of Connecticut linebackers. Scott Lutrus, Greg Lloyd, and Lawrence Wilson do an excellent job of stringing out plays and defending the run. If they force Yates into third-and-long situations, the Tar Heel offense is in serious trouble.
What will happen: Much like a year ago, defense and special teams will dictate the outcome of this game. Advantage Carolina. It won’t be easy—or pretty—but the Heels will escape Connecticut with a hard-fought victory, winning the turnover battle and getting 75 tough yards and a score from Draughn. Until the Huskies can get their passing game right, they’ll struggle to beat the nation’s quality teams.
CFN Prediction: North Carolina 23 … Connecticut 16 ... Line:
North Carolina -5
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) …
3
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Free Expert Football Predictions
Pittsburgh (1-0) at Buffalo (1-0),12:00 EST, Saturday, September 12
Why to watch: Pittsburgh took care of business in a ho-hum opener with Youngstown State, coasting to a 38-3 victory. Beginning with this week’s first road game, the competition is about to get steadily tougher heading into the Big East portion of the schedule in October. Resting on the lip of the Top 25 cup, the Panthers can move a step closer to becoming ranked with a win in Buffalo. Despite breaking in a new quarterback and losing top rusher James Starks to injury, the Bulls quietly delivered a quality upset of UTEP in El Paso, 23-17. Winners of seven of his last nine games and the 2008 MAC title, head coach Turner Gill continues to bolster his resume and make a strong case for a promotion.
Why Pittsburgh might win: While the makeshift Buffalo offense survived a week ago versus UTEP, it’s going to get a sudden dose of reality on Saturday afternoon. This is the best defense untested sophomore QB Zach Maynard is going to see all year. The Panthers don’t budge in run defense and are especially tough along the defensive line. With Greg Romeus, Jabaal Sheard, and Mick Williams controlling the line of scrimmage, the Bulls won’t spend much time on the other side of the 50.
Why Buffalo might win: A rare visit from a Big East team should create a mild stir in Buffalo, so home field advantage will matter more than usual. Is anyone convinced that Pittsburgh has turned a corner on offense? QB Bill Stull was getting booed at home last weekend, and the offensive line is still a little shaky in pass protection. The Bulls are capable of turning this game into a low-scoring brawl, especially after doing such a nice job of containing Trevor Vittatoe and the typically potent UTEP offense. The back seven, led by LB Justin Winters and safeties Mike Newton and Davonte Shannon, is tough enough to prevent the big play.
Who to watch: Pittsburgh has officially found its successor to LeSean McCoy in the backfield. Diminutive true freshman Dion Lewis, who took part in spring ball, was the Panthers’ most consistent offensive weapon last week, rolling for 129 yards and two scores, adding a third touchdown through the air. He’ll get a heavy dose of touches again this week, as Pitt tries to take advantage of its edge in size up front.
What will happen: Pittsburgh better be very careful this weekend. While it enjoys a considerable gap in talent, Buffalo is home, well-coached, and itching for a program-defining win. This is the week that Starks’ injury will really haunt the Bulls, however, as the offense will stall in the red zone and attempt field goals when six points are needed. The Panthers will squeeze out a victory, but concerns about the offense are going to linger.
CFN Prediction: Pittsburgh 24 … Buffalo 16 ... Line:
Pitt -11
Must See Rating: (Curb Your Enthusiasm Season Premiere 5 … The Fresh Beat Band 1) … 1.5
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Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 2, Part 2