2009 Big East Fearless Picks - Week 3, Part 2

Previews and Predictions for the Week 3 Big East Games, Part 2

2009 Big East Fearless Predictions

Week 3 ... Sept. 19 Games, Part 2

Cincinnati | Connecticut | Louisville | Pittsburgh | Rutgers | South Florida | Syracuse | West Virginia

Big East Fearless Predictions
- Week 1 | Week 2

- Week 3, Part 1

Navy (1-1) at Pittsburgh (2-0),6:00 EST, ESPN360, Saturday, September 19

Why to watch: One-time rivals as eastern independents, Navy and Pittsburgh hook up for the 38th time, the third meeting in a four-year scheduling agreement between the programs. Having easily discarded of Youngstown State and Buffalo, the Panthers are eyeing their first 3-0 start since 2000. The 54-27 rout of the Bulls last weekend was significant because it marked an improbable explosion from an offense viewed as the program’s weak link. Among the non-automatic qualifiers, only Utah has beaten as many BCS schools as Navy since 2003. The Middies almost had another victim in the opener, losing at Ohio State, 31-27. They bounced back from the close call last weekend, digging out of a 14-0 hole to beat Louisiana Tech, 32-14.
Why Navy might win: The Pitt defense has plenty of speed and athleticism, but does it have the discipline to slow down the Middies’ triple-option? Few do. Navy, as has been the case throughout this decade, is averaging well over 200 yards on the ground. QB Ricky Dobbs is a dangerous pitchman, helping bring out the best in thunder and lightning backs, Alexander Teich and Marcus Curry, respectively. If the Panthers over pursue or blow their assignments, the Midshipmen will make them pay with seven-minute drives and 300 yards on the ground.
Why Pittsburgh might win: While no one should get too giddy about the Panther offense, it’s obviously begun to click beyond expectations. The spark has come from true freshman RB Dion Lewis, who has already accounted for 375 total yards and five scores, making life easier for sporadic QB Bill Stull. The senior has been on target in an efficient sort of way, tossing five touchdown passes to just one pick. As long as these two are making plays and protecting the ball, Pittsburgh is going to be a tough opponent every single weekend.
Who to watch: Through two games, one of the feel-good stories of the Big East, if not the entire country, has been Pitt LB Adam Gunn. Somewhat fortunate to be walking after breaking a bone in his neck last year, he’s making the most of his sixth year of eligibility. He already has 19 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and five sacks, flashing the speed and range that attracted the program to him in high school. While the sack total isn’t likely to increase versus Navy, he’ll still have plenty of chances to make plays from his spot in the middle of the defense.
What will happen: It’s never easy taking down Navy. This week will be no different for Pittsburgh. The Middies just wear you down with their relentless ground game and solid fundamentals. It’ll take a few quarters, but the Panthers will break through in the second half on a Stull flip to TE Dorin Dickerson, an emerging target on the intermediate routes.
CFN Prediction: Pittsburgh 28 … Navy 20 ... Line: Pitt -7
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions

Cincinnati (2-0) at Oregon State (2-0),6:45 EST, Fox Sports Net, Saturday, September 19

Why to watch: If you can appreciate staffs that perennially do a fantastic job of coaching up kids and exceeding expectations, pay special attention to this sneaky good match up. Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly and Oregon State’s Mike Riley are two of the very best in the business. The Bearcats have wasted no time quelling talk of this being a rebuilding year, destroying Rutgers and Southeast Missouri State by a combined score of 117-18. Another big road win would jolt this program right back into the Big East driver’s seat. The Beavers’ road to a 2-0 start has been littered with a few more landmines, needing a Justin Kahut field with seven seconds left to fend off a challenge from UNLV in Las Vegas. Considering the school’s recent issues in early-season games, avoiding the upset caused a gigantic sigh of relief to come out of Corvallis.
Why Cincinnati might win: Kelly’s offense has been in top gear for eight straight quarters, producing 14 touchdowns and 1,142 yards. While Tony Pike to Mardy Gilyard has been as electric as advertised, that combination has gotten ample support. Jacob Ramsey and Isaiah Pead have been weapons as runners and receivers, and D.J. Woods and Armon Binns are stepping up as compliments in the passing game. With Kelly’s offensive ingenuity, Oregon State has to be wondering if this is the weekend that the rebuilt defense and lackluster pass rush cost the team a game.
Why Oregon State might win: The Beavers won’t be the only team at Reser Stadium adjusting to plenty of new faces on the defensive side of the ball. While the Cincinnati D has looked fine breaking in a slew of first-time starters, Rutgers and Southeast Missouri State are hardly adequate sparring partners for what’s to come. Neither the Knights nor the Redhawks have anyone resembling Jacquizz or James Rodgers. The most exciting thing in siblings since the Selmons were in Norman, the pair has been dynamite on the ground and through the air. Game-changers whenever they touch the ball, both are going to frustrate a defense that has yet to be truly tested.
Who to watch: Like so many games, this one will come down to who blocks better at the line of scrimmage. So far, Cincinnati has done a great job of protecting Pike. Oregon State? Not so much. The opposition has gotten to Sean Canfield five times and pressured him plenty, which could create opportunities for LB Curtis Young and DE Ricardo Mathews. Plus, the Beavers have just one sack in games with Portland State and UNLV, a bad omen heading into this week.
What will happen: When two relatively equal squads meet, you give the nod to the home team, right? Nope. It’s never easy winning in Corvallis, but Cincinnati has just enough talent on offense and momentum to pull it off. Oregon State’s early problems on both lines should be cause for concern as it prepares for its toughest test of the first half. If the Beavers can’t get a hand on Pike, he’ll take another big step toward national notoriety. Ditto Kelly, who’s making it hard to doubt what he can accomplish with the Bearcats.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 34 … Oregon State 28 ... Line: Oregon State -1.5
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 3.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions

Northwestern (2-0) at Syracuse (0-2),7:00 EST, Saturday, September 19

Why to watch: Syracuse has one final leg on its three-week tour through the Big Ten, a visit from Northwestern. The first two games have brought mixed results for the Orange in Doug Marrone’s debut on the sidelines. In the opener, it took Minnesota into overtime before faltering, 23-20. Last weekend, the school was barely competitive in Happy Valley, losing to Penn State, 28-7. While the Wildcats have gotten to 2-0, they’ve failed to chalk up many style points along the way. After ditching Towson without much effort, Northwestern struggled at home to beat Eastern Michigan, one of the MAC’s weakest programs. The Big Ten schedule starts next weekend, so any margin for error is dwindling.
Why Northwestern might win: While QB Greg Paulus has helped Syracuse get some national pub, he hasn’t been able to provide much of a spark to the offense. The Orange is already at the bottom of the Big East in total and scoring offense, a familiar resting place for the program. With the way Syracuse is laboring to extend drives and reach the end zone, the Wildcats might be out of reach if QB Mike Kafka and RB Stephen Simmons can help them over the 20-point threshold.
Why Syracuse might win: Considering it’s faced Adam Weber and Darryl Clark in the first two weeks, the Orange defense has held up rather well, yielding just 51 points and limiting big plays. LB Derrell Smith and FS Mike Holmes have been especially active, helping limit Penn State to just 78 yards on the ground on Saturday. Northwestern has sprung leaks in run defense, which could be just what Delone Carter needs to keep Paulus from having to do too much.
Who to watch: Almost nine months since breaking his leg, Northwestern DE Corey Wootton still has a way to go before he’s 100%. That was obvious from watching him play against Eastern Michigan last week. It’s going to take time, but the coaching staff is hopeful he can recapture the form that made him a hot topic among NFL scouts prior to the injury.
What will happen: Although the Syracuse D looks capable of keeping this game tight throughout, the offense’s inability to finish consistently will result in a repeat of the opener—close but no W. Northwestern has its own issues, but a date with the Orange has a way of providing a temporary band aid. Simmons will reach the end zone and Kafka will toss his first touchdown of the year, helping the ‘Cats to a 3-0 start.
CFN Prediction: Northwestern 23 … Syracuse 17 ... Line: Northwestern -4
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions

Charleston Southern (0-2) at South Florida (2-0),7:00 EST, Saturday, September 19

Why to watch: Relatively easy wins over Wofford and Western Kentucky have shed precious little light on what to expect from South Florida in 2009. Expect to be in the dark until next weekend, when the program makes a highly-anticipated trip to Tallahassee. The Bulls appeared to have a hard time getting up for the Hilltoppers, needing a pair of fourth quarter scores to put the game out of reach. It’s improbable that Charleston Southern is going to inspire much energy from the players or the fans. The Buccaneers are a sub par Big South program that’s already been walloped by Florida and the same Wofford team that got smoked by South Florida in the opener, 40-7.
Why Charleston Southern might win: Realistically, the Buccaneers’ best chance of narrowing the talent gap is to hope South Florida’s head is in Doak Campbell rather than Raymond James. The Bulls could easily be looking ahead to next week’s trip to Tallahassee, creating an opportunity for a four-quarter struggle. While the early results say otherwise, Charleston Southern has talent on defense, like LB Andrew McKain and DL Dorein Perkins, which might be more obvious if it didn’t open with the nation’s top-ranked team. South Florida has been misfiring on offense and was held in check by Western Kentucky for the first 50 minutes last weekend.
Why South Florida might win: Charleston Southern’s problems on offense are going to be exacerbated by a trip to Tampa. The Bucs, who’ve managed just 17 points in two games, don’t have the playmakers to challenge the speed and veteran depth of the Bull defense. From George Selvie and Kion Wilson on the front seven to Nate Allen and Jerome Murphy on the last line of defense, there’s way too much talent on the South Florida D for QB A.J. Toscano to have much success. The Bulls will live in the opposing backfield, gobbling up at least three turnovers.
Who to watch: Senior Moise Plancher and true freshman Lindsey Lamar have filled in nicely as projected feature back Mike Ford sat out his suspension. The pair combined for 175 yards and two touchdowns on only 26 carries last week, keeping QB Matt Grothe from having to do too much for the offense. While Ford is expected to be available, Plancher and Lamar won’t disappear, meaning more backfield depth than the program has ever enjoyed.
What will happen: Even if South Florida is lethargic, a distinct possibility, it won’t cost the team in the won-loss column. Charleston Southern just isn’t built to capitalize on the opening. The Bulls will control the tempo of the game on the ground, while getting ample support from an aggressive and opportunistic defense.
CFN Prediction: South Florida 41 … Charleston Southern 10 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions

- Week 3, Part 1