2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 3 ... Sept. 19 Games
Cincinnati
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Connecticut
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Louisville
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Pittsburgh
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Rutgers
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South
Florida |
Syracuse
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West
Virginia
Big East Fearless Predictions
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Week 3, Part 2 (Cin. at
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Game of the Week
West Virginia (2-0) at Auburn (2-0),7:45 EST, Saturday, ESPN2, September 19
Why to watch: West Virginia has won both of its games by double-digits. Auburn has won both of its games by double-digits. Is either program the real deal? We’ll have a much better idea after they meet Saturday night. The Mountaineers have started fast in the post-Pat White era, handling Liberty and East Carolina in Morgantown. A trip to the Plains of Alabama, however, will shed some light on the upside potential of this team, while answering some questions about the Big East as well. While no one wants to get too excited this early, Gene Chizik’s tenure with the Tigers couldn’t have started much better. Auburn has already scored 86 points, fueled by Gus Malzahn’s high-energy, unpredictable offense, a stark contrast to a year ago. Last week, for instance, the Tigers routed Mississippi State, 49-24, a year after managing just a field goal in a 3-2 victory. The winner has a real good shot to crack the Top 25 for the first time this season.
Why West Virginia might win: The silver lining of White’s graduation is that it’s allowed Jarrett Brown to finally get on the field. The senior has been worth the wait. Tebow-like at 6-4 and 225 pounds, he can run through tacklers, but is also a skilled passer, blending a great arm with an ability to read coverages. He threw four touchdown passes last week and added 73 yards on the ground, while misfiring just seven times. Surrounded by a speedy supporting cast that includes RB Noel Devine and receivers Jock Sanders and Alric Arnett, he’ll keep the Mountaineers in the hunt, even if it turns into a track meet.
Why Auburn might win: While it’s only two games and the competition is about to get tougher, there’s not much to dislike about the new Tiger attack. It’s explosive, tough to defend, and capable of wearing teams out on the ground. The offensive line is playing light years better than 2008, opening huge holes for Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb, who’ve both gone over 100 yards twice. With the running game purring and opposing pass rushes neutralized, Chris Todd has become a more efficient and less mistake-prone quarterback. This is one of the worst possible times for DT Scooter Berry and LB Reed Williams, two of West Virginia’s best players, to be banged up.
Who to watch: West Virginia and Auburn have yet to allow a sack in 2009. That ought to change this weekend. DE Antonio Coleman is determined to make sure the retooled Mountaineer line gets its toughest test of the season. The All-America candidate has gotten to the quarterback just once, but with the lights on and a national TV audience in attendance, you know he’s going to be a menace coming off the edge.
What will happen: Although moving the ball gets a little harder for Auburn, that misdirection running game is still going to get its yards and produce a handful of big plays. Provided the young Tigers don’t overheat with emotion, that Jordan-Hare crowd, especially when the sun goes down, is like having a man advantage all night. Tate and McCalebb will snap off key runs, while Kodi Burns, the quarterback turned receiver, continues to play closer in Wildcat formations near the end zone.
CFN Prediction: Auburn 31 … West Virginia 20 ... Line: Auburn -6.5
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 4
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Louisville (1-0) at Kentucky (1-0),12:00 EST, ESPNU, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: Louisville and Kentucky meet for the 22nd time for the Governor’s Cup, a budding rivalry that always creates a stir around the Commonwealth. The Wildcats have recovered nicely from a four-game losing streak in the series, taking the last two for a measure of redemption. Despite having question marks on both sides of the ball, they impressed before the bye week, hammering Miami (OH), 42-0, the school’s first shutout in 13 years. Although no one wants to get carried away this early, it was an uplifting performance, especially for the maligned offense. The Cards have also won their only game of the season, but the vibe is not quite as intense in this part of the state. Louisville played inconsistently in its 30-10 defeat of Indiana State, fueling concerns about the direction of the program under Steve Kragthorpe.
Why Louisville might win: You can beat the Kentucky defense on the ground, which is exactly what the Cardinals will be aiming to do. Two of their best offensive weapons, Victor Anderson and Bilal Powell, happen to be seasoned backs, who combined for 169 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1. They form a nice complement, motoring behind a veteran line that does its best work when run blocking. The ‘Cats will need more time to adapt to a defensive line breaking in three new starters.
Why Kentucky might win: What happens if the Wildcats stack the line with linebackers Micah Johnson and Sam Maxwell? It’s not as if there’ll be much risk. Louisville’s Justin Burke was awful in his first start at quarterback, throwing no touchdowns and two picks against a feeble Indiana State D. You can pretty much predict what’s going to happen in his first road game versus a Trevard Lindley-led secondary that was brilliant in the opener. The always-key turnover battle will favor Kentucky on this afternoon.
Who to watch: Is it too early to get on the Mike Hartline bandwagon? The Kentucky quarterback was sharp two weeks ago, throwing for two scores and no picks, while getting on the same page with junior college transfer Chris Matthews and converted quarterback Randall Cobb. Although it was against the RedHawks, it remains to be seen whether this week’s visiting birds are any tougher in pass defense.
What will happen: Even in a 30-10 victory, you can see something is wrong at Louisville. Unlike a bad FCS team, Kentucky will shine a spotlight on those shortcomings, blasting its in-state rival to the delight of the home fans. While the Cards stumble on third down, the ‘Cats will flourish, keeping drives alive behind Hartline and underrated backs Alfonso Smith and Derrick Locke. If given an opening, Kentucky won’t pass on a chance to make this game ugly in the second half.
CFN Prediction: Kentucky 37 … Louisville 14 ... Line: Kentucky -12.5
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) …
2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Connecticut (1-1) at Baylor (1-0),5:00 EST, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: After getting an early bye last week, Baylor resumes action, looking to skin a quality non-conference opponent for the second time in as many games. The Bears opened by upsetting Wake Forest on the road, the kind of win that could propel a young program not accustomed to hanging on in the close ones. With Northwestern State and Kent State up next, this is the fork in the road that could lead to a 4-0 start. Connecticut will be looking to bounce back from a gut-wrenching home loss to North Carolina, a lost opportunity to get to 2-0. The Huskies took a 10-point lead into the final quarter, but wound up losing, 12-10, on a safety after LT Dan Ryan was flagged for holding in the end zone.
Why Connecticut might win: The Huskies possess the defensive speed and fundamentals to string out an offense that’ll make plays on the perimeter. In two games, they’ve allowed just 26 points and have been especially stingy against the run. DE Lindsey Witten is tied for the nation’s lead with five sacks, a concern for the new Baylor tackles, and the linebackers cover plenty of ground, especially if Scott Lutrus can make it back from a stinger. Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon give Connecticut two quality backs capable of wearing down the Bear D.
Why Baylor might win: At the most important position on the field, this is going to be a mismatch. While the Bears have the dynamic Robert Griffin, who’ll remind Big Easters of a young Pat White, the Huskies are in full crisis mode. Injured Zach Frazer and Cody Endres have combined for two touchdown passes and four interceptions as the caretakers of the nation’s 116th-ranked passing game. Connecticut will get challenged by an improving Baylor defense that starts 10 upperclassmen and now has 6-4, 355-pound Penn State transfer Phil Taylor anchoring the middle of the D-line.
Who to watch: With Griffin commanding so much attention around Waco, it’s easy to forget that Joe Pawelek is one of the most underrated linebackers in the country. An instinctive leader, with excellent cover skills, he was instrumental in the opener, making seven stops, a sack, and an interception. When Connecticut runs the ball, No. 41 will never be too far from the ball.
What will happen: Connecticut specializes in low-scoring alley fights, which won’t cut it against an Art Briles-led team. Baylor and Griffin will force the Huskies out of their happy place with speed, unpredictably, and a bag of trick plays. When forced to play from behind, UConn will wilt, lacking the playmakers or the passing attack to mount a second half comeback.
CFN Prediction: Baylor 30 … Connecticut 16 ... Line:
Baylor -10
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) …
3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Florida International (0-1) at Rutgers (1-1),5:00 EST, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: It took a visit from Howard for Rutgers to ditch the memory of its opening day flop to Cincinnati. It worked. The Scarlet Knights won easily, 45-7, while officially kicking off the Tom Savage era at quarterback. They’ll try to continue the healing process with this week’s visit from Florida International. The Panthers opened the season in Tuscaloosa Saturday, remaining within shouting distance of ‘Bama for almost three quarters before fading in the final 15 minutes. The progress being shown under third-year head coach Mario Cristobal will go into overdrive with a road win against a Big East team.
Why Florida International might win: Hope for an upset can be found in a passing game that features steady veteran QB Paul McCall and his top receivers, 6-3, 200-pound Greg Ellingson and electrifying T.Y. Hilton. Both had five grabs against the Tide, Ellingson going for 92 yards and a score and Hilton adding a kickoff return for a touchdown. In Rutgers’ lone bout with a quality passing team, it was burned for 396 yards and three touchdowns by Tony Pike and the Cincy quarterbacks. It’s a good thing for Florida International that it’s traveling to the Northeast in September, long before nasty weather can impact the offense.
Why Rutgers might win: When faced with a power running game and bigger linemen, Florida International was unable to hold up defensively last weekend. The Panthers will face a similar fate in Piscataway. Rutgers has the big backs, namely 215-pound Joe Martinek and 230-pound Jourdan Brooks, and the veteran line to mash its smaller opponent for 60 minutes. The bulldozing Brooks is coming off one of the best days of his career, running for 124 yards and three scores. With Savage getting more comfortable in his role at quarterback, the Knights will inch closer to the balanced attack they desire.
Who to watch: Savage has begun to develop a rhythm with fellow rookie Mohamed Sanu, a big and physical receiver, who has already caught a dozen passes for 123 yards. It’s a hook-up that’ll have a familiar ring to it over the next four years. Sanu and jackrabbit Tim Brown are going to be challenged all night by all-league CB Anthony Gaitor and an athletic Panther secondary.
What will happen: By Sun Belt standards, Florida International is a team on the rise. Winning five games and playing with Alabama for 45 minutes qualifies as evidence. However, the Panthers still lack the big bodies up front to actually knock off more talented opponents. Rutgers will grind out a second straight win, using its considerable edge in the running game to control the clock and wear out the visitor’s defense.
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 35 … Florida International 19 ... Line:
Rutgers -15
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 1.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 3, Part 2 (Cin. at
Oregon St, & more)