2009 Ind & ND Fearless Predictions - Week 3

Previews and Predictions for the Week 3 Conference USA Games

2009 Independent Fearless Predictions

Week 3 ... Sept. 19 Games

Army | Navy | Notre Dame 

Independent Fearless Predictions
- Week 1 | Week 2

Game of the Week

Michigan State (1-1) at Notre Dame (1-1), 3:30 PM EST, Saturday, September 19, NBC

Why to watch: Each team was a few seconds away from being 2-0 and making this, arguably, college football’s biggest game of the weekend. Notre Dame did everything it could to ruin a great performance against Michigan with penalties, mental mistakes, and coaching blunders that ended up allowing Tate Forcier and the Michigan offense to pull off the stunning rally. Michigan State needed a miracle to lose to Central Michigan, and it happened with a perfect onside kick going the Chippewas way and a penalty that nullified a missed field goal and allowed Andrew Aguila to hit the game winner. Neither team is getting much in the way of national respect, especially in the rankings, but the winner should see its season kickstarted again while the loser will have an uphill climb to overcome the 1-2 start.

Notre Dame needs this game more than Michigan State does. The Spartans go to Wisconsin next week and have Michigan coming into East Lansing later; those are much more important than this week’s battle. Since the Irish don’t have a conference schedule to rely on, they have to take advantage of all the games they have against decent teams. With Purdue and Washington up next, a win this week would likely mean a 4-1 start before the epic showdown against USC. The Spartans have won three of the last four in the series, but this is a far better Notre Dame team. Now it has to prove it. Why Michigan State might win: Pressure. Nevada has the talent up front to come up with a fearsome pass rush that should be among the nation’s leaders in sacks and tackles for loss. It couldn’t get to Jimmy Clausen. Michigan has a strong line that hasn’t shown up yet, and it didn’t spend much time in the Notre Dame backfield. Michigan State will get after Clausen, and while it’s not going to do anything crazy to disrupt the timing of the Irish offense, the front four should be able to dictate the tempo and the action better than the Wolf Pack or Wolverines could. Offensively, the passing game has been crisp. It has been explosive at times, and overall it’s done enough to keep the chains moving. Notre Dame’s secondary can be beaten as long as the Spartan coaches keep taking what the Jon Tenuta defense gives them. The Irish will attack, but MSU can block and can get the ball into the hands of the playmakers in a hurry.
Why Notre Dame might winCan the Spartan corners handle the Notre Dame receivers? Central Michigan’s Dan LeFevour put the pressure on the MSU secondary with 328 yards and three touchdowns, and while most of the production came late in comeback mode, the passing game worked. No one is playing better than Clausen, who has been unstoppable over the last three games now that he’s being given time. Even if the Spartans get into the backfield, the Irish have the balance when needed thanks to Armando Allen, who ran for 139 yards and a score against Michigan averaging 6.6 yards per carry. In other words, this is a fully-functional offensive machine that MSU won’t be able to slow down without help from a slew of Irish penalties and a few turnovers. MSU has decent offensive talent, but it doesn’t have enough stars to keep up in a 60-minute shootout.
Who to watch: While Notre Dame is set at quarterback, Michigan State is still trying to figure out if Kirk Cousins or Keith Nichol is the answer. The two continue to be listed as co-starters, but Cousins has been the far better and the far more consistent of the two completing 66% of his passes for 347 yards and four touchdowns, while Nichol has competed 46% of his throws for 186 yards and three scores. The one key number is zero. Without a great running game to rely on and needing to help the defense out as much as possible, the two quarterbacks have yet to throw an interception. They have to be nearly-flawless if MSU is going to have a shot.
What will happen: It’s Michigan State vs. Notre Dame, so it’s going to be a fun, tight battle with a wild fourth quarter. The Notre Dame passing game will slow down a little bit, but not enough for the Spartans to take advantage. The Irish defense will attack the MSU quarterbacks early on and try to rattle them more than they were able to do against Tate Forcier, and they should have a little more success.
CFN Prediction: Notre Dame 34 … Michigan State 30... Line: Notre Dame -11
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 4.5

Ball State (0-2) at Army (1-1), 12:00 EST, Saturday, September 19

Why to watch: Two new coaching staffs, two completely different directions. Ball State was 12-0 going into the MAC title game last season and has lost four games since. Worse yet, the team has gone completely into the tank this year with a home loss to North Texas followed up with another home loss to an FCS team, New Hampshire. Things don’t get any better with a date at Auburn next week, but a win this week could start to turn the program around before opening up MAC play against Toledo on October 3rd. For Army, head coach Rich Ellerson is starting to put together a dangerous team, but he’ll need time. After an impressive opening day performance in a 27-14 win over Eastern Michigan, the Knights struggled against Duke in a 35-19 loss even though they dominated on the stat-sheet. With a bowl game a possibility if the team keeps improving, this is a game Ellerson’s team must have.
Why Ball State might win: How did Army lose to Duke despite winning the rushing battle 266 yards to 70 and holding the Blue Devil passing attack to 166 yards? Turnovers. Ellerson’s offense relies on precision, but this is a team still learning what it needs to do. Army gave the ball away with two interceptions and two fumbles, and Duke took advantage. Ball State needs as much help as possible, and while the D hasn’t been able to do much to make big plays, the front seven has been able to get into the backfield and be disruptive with 17 tackles for loss and four sacks.
Why Army might win: Ball State’s linebackers have struggled in a huge way to come up with stops at the point of attack. The run defense gave up 296 rushing yards to North Texas, who doesn’t exactly have a top-shelf running game, while giving up 110 yards and two scores to New Hampshire. Army’s ground game should be unstoppable for stretches with the option attack able to put up huge numbers both inside and out. However, the quarterback situation has to be settled since …
Who to watch: … starter Trent Steelman has banged up ribs. The freshman wasn’t able to go the whole way against Duke, and it showed as Reggie Williams completed just 8-of-18 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions. Steelman is the runner, gaining 75 yards with a touchdown against the Blue Devils, but if it’s Williams, or junior Chip Bowden, or veteran Carson Williams, the offense will take on a different look.
What will happen: Army will rumble for over 300 rushing yards while Ball State won’t get nearly enough consistent offense to keep up the pace. This could get ugly if the Cardinals have to throw the ball in comeback mode.
CFN Prediction: Army 34 … Ball State 20 ... Line: Army -8
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 2
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Navy (1-1) at Pittsburgh (2-0),6:00 EST, ESPN360, Saturday, September 19

Why to watch: One-time rivals as eastern independents, Navy and Pittsburgh hook up for the 38th time, the third meeting in a four-year scheduling agreement between the programs. Having easily discarded of Youngstown State and Buffalo, the Panthers are eyeing their first 3-0 start since 2000. The 54-27 rout of the Bulls last weekend was significant because it marked an improbable explosion from an offense viewed as the program’s weak link. Among the non-automatic qualifiers, only Utah has beaten as many BCS schools as Navy since 2003. The Middies almost had another victim in the opener, losing at Ohio State, 31-27. They bounced back from the close call last weekend, digging out of a 14-0 hole to beat Louisiana Tech, 32-14.
Why Navy might win: The Pitt defense has plenty of speed and athleticism, but does it have the discipline to slow down the Middies’ triple-option? Few do. Navy, as has been the case throughout this decade, is averaging well over 200 yards on the ground. QB Ricky Dobbs is a dangerous pitchman, helping bring out the best in thunder and lightning backs, Alexander Teich and Marcus Curry, respectively. If the Panthers over pursue or blow their assignments, the Midshipmen will make them pay with seven-minute drives and 300 yards on the ground.
Why Pittsburgh might win: While no one should get too giddy about the Panther offense, it’s obviously begun to click beyond expectations. The spark has come from true freshman RB Dion Lewis, who has already accounted for 375 total yards and five scores, making life easier for sporadic QB Bill Stull. The senior has been on target in an efficient sort of way, tossing five touchdown passes to just one pick. As long as these two are making plays and protecting the ball, Pittsburgh is going to be a tough opponent every single weekend.
Who to watch: Through two games, one of the feel-good stories of the Big East, if not the entire country, has been Pitt LB Adam Gunn. Somewhat fortunate to be walking after breaking a bone in his neck last year, he’s making the most of his sixth year of eligibility. He already has 19 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and five sacks, flashing the speed and range that attracted the program to him in high school. While the sack total isn’t likely to increase versus Navy, he’ll still have plenty of chances to make plays from his spot in the middle of the defense.
What will happen: It’s never easy taking down Navy. This week will be no different for Pittsburgh. The Middies just wear you down with their relentless ground game and solid fundamentals. It’ll take a few quarters, but the Panthers will break through in the second half on a Stull flip to TE Dorin Dickerson, an emerging target on the intermediate routes.
CFN Prediction: Pittsburgh 28 … Navy 20 ... Line: Pitt -7
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 2
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