2009 M-West Fearless Predictions
Week 3 ... Sept. 19 Games
Air Force |
BYU
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Colorado State
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New Mexico
San
Diego State |
TCU
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UNLV
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Utah
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Wyoming
Mountain West Fearless Predictions
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Week 1 |
Week 2
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Week 3, Part 2 (Air Force
at New Mexico & More)
Game of the Week
Florida State (1-1) at BYU (2-0),7:00 EST, Versus, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: Now that BYU has moved into the top 10 of every major poll, a visit from Florida State qualifies as one of the most important games in the school’s storied history. The entire nation is watching, which means another high-profile Cougar victory is going to spark more than just BCS bowl game chatter. Opening with wins over Oklahoma and Florida State means you’re an instant contender for a national championship. Yup, this is a big one in Provo. BYU flashed its poise and maturity last Saturday, avoiding a post-Sooner hangover and crushing Tulane, 54-3, in New Orleans. The Seminoles, on the other hand, are in a different place, to put it delicately. In the span of five days, Florida State dropped a heartbreaker to Miami and needed a touchdown in the final minute to avoid an upset loss to Jacksonville State. Jacksonville State? Maybe leaving the state for the first time this year isn’t such a bad thing. Seminole pride is going to be at stake in this one.
Why Florida State might win: This is still Florida State, which means the athletes are as good as anyone in the country, including BYU. Two games should not completely dismiss the fact that the Cougar offensive line has a bunch of new starters and the defense is short on star power. Removed from last week’s awful weather, the Seminoles will get back to pounding it on the ground with a combination of QB Christian Ponder and backs Ty Jones and Jermaine Thomas. On defense, their ability to stop the run with linebackers Dekoda Watson, Nigel Bradham, and Kendall Smith will alter thoughts of a balanced attack.
Why BYU might win: The Seminoles’ first two games are not the product of a slow start. They’re an indication of a vulnerable program. Florida State is fortunate to be 1-1. Getting over .500 won’t happen in front of an electrified crowd at LaVell Edwards Stadium. BYU has begun to open up the playbook, and will use more hurry-up, two-minute offense to gas the visitors from sea-level. With Max Hall at the controls and RB Harvey Unga improving physically, the attack is about to peak at the Seminoles’ expense. Remember the opener? Florida State was bombarded by Jacory Harris for 386 yards. Expect more of the same from Hall, who has Mackey Award candidate Dennis Pitta and underrated WR McKay Jacobson at his disposal.
Who to watch: After eight quarters of solid play, it’s starting to look as if the BYU defense is no fluke. Even during garbage time, a decent Tulane offense couldn’t move the ball and wound up with just nine first downs. Everyone is contributing, but the linebackers have been particularly effective in run and pass defense. Terrance Hooks, Coleby Clawson, and Matt Bauman are three of the senior leaders, who’s primary goal will be to make Ponder as uncomfortable as possible.
What will happen: While anything’s possible with Florida State, this is too tall of an order, on the road and at a stadium that’s welcoming BYU back home, like conquering heroes. The veteran Cougars won’t be distracted by the circus-like atmosphere, jumping all over the ‘Noles from the outset and not letting up. While Hall enhances his Heisman resume with a couple more touchdown passes, Ponder will try to rally his team in vain, absorbing two games worth of punishment in the process.
CFN Prediction: BYU 34 … Florida State 20 ... Line:
BYU -7
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 4.5
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Free Expert Football Predictions
Utah (2-0) at Oregon (1-1), 3:30 EST, ESPN, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: While not quite as sexy as it looked three weeks ago, a Utah trip to Eugene still has plenty of appeal and storylines. The Utes haven’t exactly turned heads in their first two wins over Utah State and San Jose State, handing most of its BCS buster equity over to BYU, Boise State, and even Houston. A road win over a quality Pac-10 team, however, changes everything. Used to getting more national attention, especially after last year’s perfect season, the program feels it has something to prove Saturday afternoon. Oregon used a visit from Purdue to get past its disastrous opener with the Broncos. Hardly a breeze, the Ducks were a failed two-point conversion in the final minute from being dragged into overtime. They realize a win over a ranked team could propel them right back into the Top 25 and on track to achieve their 2009 goals.
Why Utah might win: Oregon needs to run the football to be successful. The Utes won’t allow it. Bolstered by an outstanding front seven, ends Koa Misi and Derrick Shelby, and LB Stevenson Sylvester will hold the upper hand on a Duck offensive line that’s struggling. Oregon has had uncharacteristic problems moving it on the ground, a trend that’ll continue this weekend. If forced to throw, especially on third-and-long, the nation’s 106th-ranked passing attack is unlikely to provide a solution. There’s running room on that Duck D, which 220-pound Matt Asiata will look to exploit.
Why Oregon might win: Now that Jeremiah Masoli has started to recapture his 2008 form, the Ducks have a chance to catch fire, much like they did late last year. He’s that incendiary. In the win over Purdue, he threw for 163 yards and ran for another 84 and a score. If he can help elevate the play of RB LaMichael James and receivers Jamere Holland and Jeff Maehl, there’s serious doubt whether Utah will keep pace offensively. The Utes have moved the ball, but struggled to punch finish drives, scoring just seven points in the first three quarters last Saturday.
Who to watch: Masoli isn’t the only former JUCO quarterback, who can make things happen with his arm and his feet. Utah’s Terrance Cain continues to adjust as Brian Johnson’s successor, completing almost two-thirds of his passes and rushing for 91 yards. While he has a long way to go, two games have helped flatten the learning the curve and bring him closer to where the Utes need him to be.
What will happen: Strange game. Neither school has started especially crisp, but both are capable of using this weekend as a launching point. Even after stopping the bleeding, something just isn’t right with Oregon. The Ducks lack the physicality to put away Utah, which will win the battles up front and ride Asiata for more than 100 yards and a couple of scores. It’ll come with a few tense moments, but the Utes will extend their winning streak to 17 games, holding off a late charge from Masoli.
CFN Prediction: Utah 34 … Oregon 31 ... Line: Oregon -4.5
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 3
Free Expert Football Predictions
Wyoming (1-1) at Colorado (0-2), 3:30 EST, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: It’s one thing to lose a tough battle against a fired up rival like Colorado State, but it’s a whole other issue to get destroyed by Toledo 54-38. Colorado was supposed to turn things around this year under head coach Dan Hawkins, but the defense has been a complete and utter disaster, the offense has been shockingly bad, and the message boards are buzzing with possible candidates to take over the job. The big problem for the Buffs is that this is supposed to be the easy part of the schedule. This is the lone home oasis in a span of four games, with trips to West Virginia and Texas coming up next, and with three more road games to deal with over the second half of the season. Wyoming doesn’t have the firepower of Toledo or the power of Colorado State, but Dave Christensen’s team is playing better and it wasn’t completely awful in last week’s 41-10 loss to Texas. The Mountain West season starts up next week against UNLV, but nothing would do more for the new coaching staff and the struggling program than to go on the road and come up with a win over a BCS team.
Why Wyoming might win: The Cowboys have been good at forcing takeaways with six in the first two games, the offense hasn’t made a slew of huge mistakes, and the running game has been surprisingly solid. On the other side, Colorado has had problems with turnovers with four interceptions and two fumbles, while the run defense has been gouged. The Buff offensive line has been abysmal with no push for the running game and no pass protection for Cody Hawkins, and it should have problems against a Wyoming defensive front that held up reasonably well against Texas.
Why Colorado might win: The Cowboy offensive line has struggled, too. It’s been decent for the ground game, helped by the mobility of QB Robert Benjamin, but it allowed seven sacks in the first two games. For the Buffs, the one thing that has worked reasonably well for a few stretches has been the passing game. It has been inconsistent at times and disastrous in key moments, but in comeback mode last week and when the running game wasn’t working against CSU, Cody Hawkins was able to put up some big yards. He should hit the 300-yard mark this week if the running game doesn’t show up.
Who to watch: With no help from the offensive line, Darrell Scott and the Colorado runners have had nowhere to go. However, there’s some help on the way in the backfield with last year’s breakout runner, Rodney Stewart, back from a hamstring problem. He and Scott have to take the offense on their backs, because Hawkins isn’t getting the job done. Erratic, mistake-prone, and generally ineffective for far too long, Hawkins has to use his experience and be a steadier factor for the Buff attack. He’s back after suffering a concussion, but he’ll be watched closely. If Tyler Hansen comes in, the passing game will struggle but the ground game should get a boost.
What will happen: Colorado will finally get its win and everyone can breathe easily for a few moments. Wyoming will get into the backfield and will knock Hawkins around, but the CU defense should get a break against a Cowboy attack that won’t be able to keep the chains moving. It’s not going to be pretty, but it will be a victory.
CFN Prediction: Colorado 31 … Wyoming 16 ... Line: Colorado -7
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 2
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Nevada (0-1) at Colorado State (2-0), 5:00 EST, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: Nevada has had two weeks to lick its wounds after an awful 35-0 loss to Notre Dame, and now it needs to show why so many thought before the season, and still believe, that this is a sleeper for the WAC title race. The running game didn’t work against the Irish and the secondary got torched, and now the Wolf Pack must come up with a win or the start to the season could be awful with Missouri coming into Reno next week. On the other side, Colorado State will be trying to prove that the season-opening win over the Buffs wasn’t a fluke. Colorado got blasted by Toledo last week, devaluing the Rams’ opening week win, but the bigger problem was their battle to get by Weber State in a 24-23 win. The Mountain West season kicks in full-force next week with a trip to BYU.
Why Nevada might win: The Colorado State offense has hardly been consistent. After running with power and authority on Colorado, cranking out 168 yards, the Rams struggled to get the ground game going against Weber State being held to just 63 yards. The passing game put up big numbers on WSU, gaining 243 yards, but QB Grant Stucker only completed 11-of-24 passes. Nevada will try to control the game on the ground and will try to keep CSU off the field, while the Rams have to get a ground attack of its own going and can’t struggle on third downs.
Why Colorado State might win: The Ram run defense has been fantastic, holding Colorado to just 29 yards and Weber State to 58, and since running is all Nevada is expected to do well, the Wolf Pack offense could be sputtering. Also helping the CSU matchup is the Nevada secondary that was among the worst in America last year and got torched by Notre Dame to start the season. If Stucker can get hot early and hit a few big home runs, the tone of the game could be set and Nevada will have to try to play catchup.
Who to watch: Colorado State senior Rashaun Greer hasn’t scored yet, but he has been an explosive playmaker who was a game-changer in the two wins. He caught two passes for 50 yards against Colorado, and he ripped up Weber State for 162 yards on six catches. Even if he’s not making the grab, he’ll be a threat the Wolf Pack secondary will have to keep an eye on for the entire game. That will open things up for Leonard Mason and a running game that has good potential.
What will happen: Nevada’s running game will work far better than it did against Notre Dame, but it won’t be enough. Stucker will throw for 275 yards and the Pack will be trying to play catch-up all game long.
CFN Prediction: Colorado State 27 … Nevada 24 ... Line: Nevada -3.5
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 2.5
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