2009 Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
Week 3 ... Sept. 19 Games
Arkansas State |
Florida Atlantic
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Florida International
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MTSU
North Texas
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Troy
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UL Lafayette
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UL Monroe |
Western Kentucky
Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
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Week 1 |
Week 2
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Week 3, Part 2
Game of the Week
North Texas (1-1) at Alabama (2-0), 12:20 EST, Saturday, September 19, ESPN360
Why to watch: All of a sudden, this doesn’t look like the complete and utter blasting it was originally supposed to be. Well, it probably will be, but at least North Texas isn’t totally awful like it has been the last few years. The Mean Green ran well in the first two games in a win at Ball State and a tough overtime loss against Ohio looking like a team that could challenge for a top three spot in the Sun Belt. But there will be a bump in the road, a well compensated bump, with a lamb-to-the-slaughter date at Alabama. The Tide has been fantastic so far, and now it gets to finish up its tour of the Sun Belt after rolling past FIU last week 40-14. The SEC season kicks in next week against Arkansas, and with several banged up players, Bama would love to get this over with quickly. It shouldn’t have a problem doing that.
Why North Texas might win: The Bama win over FIU wasn’t quite the walk in the park the final score makes it out to be. FIU had several chances to turn the game around, but it couldn’t convert on key third downs. The Golden Panther passing game did a nice job of keeping things moving, but the running game was shut down. UNT has thrived on the ground so far, but now it has to revert back to two years ago when the air attack was rolling. With a near-perfect balance this year, 206 rushing yards and 201 through the air, the Mean Green could make the Tide work a little bit.
Why Alabama might win: North Texas can forget about running the ball. Cam Montgomery has stepped up his game and has grown into a key piece to the team’s resurgence. His running has eased the inexperienced quarterbacks into the season, but against a Tide run defense that has given up just 65 rushing yards so far, and has come up with ten sacks and 20 tackles for loss in two games, Montgomery might as well be sitting on the bench. Throwing the ball could be a problem, too, because ...
Who to watch: … Riley Dodge is out with a shoulder injury. He could’ve gone to Texas, or just about anywhere, but he chose to go to UNT to play for his dad, head coach Todd Dodge. The knock on him was that he couldn’t stay healthy, and after starting the season hot, he got knocked out with a shoulder injury and will miss the Bama game, at least. It’s not serious and he should be back in three weeks at the latest, but there’s a big drop-off from Dodge to junior Nathan Tune, who’s not nearly the same runner and completed 9-of-15 passes for 69 yards and a key interception when thrown into the fire against Ohio. He’ll have to be phenomenal for the Mean Green to have a chance, but he’ll have to survive against a killer Tide pass rush.
What will happen: The Mean Green played well over the first few weeks, but after spotty performance against FIU, Alabama will show up and come up with a rock of a defensive effort in an easy win.
CFN Prediction: Alabama 41 … North Texas 9 ... Line: Alabama -27
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 1.5
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Middle Tennessee (1-1) at Maryland (1-1),12:00 EST, ESPN360, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: Maryland is a wounded turtle in dire need of a quick turnaround. A week after getting blasted by Cal, the Terrapins needed a late rally and a field goal in overtime to beat back James Madison. It is not a pretty site in College Park these days, which has begun to chip away at head coach Ralph Friedgen’s patience. The team is young in key areas, which, in theory, could mean it improves as the season progresses. Middle Tennessee arrives with few concerns about facing an ACC program—it defeated Maryland in Murfreesboro just last year. The Blue Raiders are coming off a one-sided, pivotal win over Memphis, which looked like a toss-up before kickoff. An upset here could be just the jolt they need to make a serious run in the Sun Belt Conference.
Why Middle Tennessee State might win: The Blue Raiders sport the sort of spread offense that’s given Maryland problems in the past. And as if things can’t get worse for the dilapidated Terrapin D, top cornerback Nolan Carroll is done for the year with a broken leg. Gulp. Maryland is in no position to be facing dual-threat QB Dwight Dasher or five-wide sets, especially after being carved up for 87 points and six touchdown passes in the first two games. Plus, Middle Tennessee State is more than just Patrick Honeycutt and Malcolm Beyah at receiver, spreading the ball to 10 different players a week ago.
Why Maryland might win: The Terps will have no choice but to go old school on the Blue Raiders. Line up, run straight at the defense, and leverage their size advantage in the trenches. While Maryland doesn’t have a great O-line, it does have plenty of girth, which should help create space in the ground game for Da’Rel Scott and Davin Meggett. Scott will arguably be the best player in the stadium, and needs to be treated as such. If the Terps can establish the run, QB Chris Turner’s ability to find Torrey Smith and Adrian Cannon downfield improves dramatically.
Who to watch: In James Madison’s Drew Dudzik, Maryland faced a similar athlete to Dasher. After allowing him to rush for 112 yards, throw for 141, and account for three scores, are the Terps better prepared for this challenge or in deep trouble? Dasher is coming off one of the best games of his career, going 18-of-26 for 231 yards and two touchdowns, adding 89 yards on the ground. It’ll be up to the Maryland linebackers, mainly Alex Wujciak and Adrian Moten, to prevent him from taking the game over.
What will happen: Forget the conference they call home. Maryland and Middle Tennessee State are near equals, and it’ll show throughout the afternoon. In a see-saw battle dominated by the offenses, Scott will outduel Dasher, wearing down the Blue Raider D with 25 carries for 125 yards and a pair of scores.
CFN Prediction: Maryland 31 … Middle Tennessee 21 ... Line:
Maryland -6
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) …
2
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Free Expert Football Predictions
UAB (1-1) at Troy (0-2),3:30 EST, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: After a two-year break, UAB and Troy are set to renew a rivalry that has pockets of interest within the state of Alabama. Even after losing back-to-back road games to Bowling Green and Florida, the Trojans are still the favorite to win another Sun Belt Conference title. However, starting off the season 0-3 would be no way to head into next week’s league opener at Arkansas State. It looks as if it’ll be hard to get a good read on UAB all season. That tends to happen with programs that aren’t accustomed to extended periods of prosperity. A week after opening the year with an impressive 44-24 win over Rice, the Blazers were unable to sustain against SMU despite a frantic second-half rally.
Why UAB might win: Until someone else steps up in Birmingham, the Blazers will only go as far as QB Joe Webb can take them. A one-man gang behind center, he has the dual-threat ability to take a game over and bring the opposition to its knees. In two games, he’s already rushed for 291 yards, thrown for 447 yards, and accounted for seven touchdowns. Troy doesn’t have anyone remotely capable of dictating the tempo of a game in a similar fashion.
Why Troy might win: A visit from UAB should be the perfect antidote for the sagging Trojan offense. The Blazers have allowed 30 points and more than 400 yards a game, collecting just two sacks against pass-happy opponents. With time, QB Levi Brown is about to reclaim his status as a borderline NFL prospect, taking advantage of top receivers Jerrel Jernigan and TeBiarus Gill. Troy presents a much stiffer defensive challenge than UAB is accustomed to, boasting a slew of potential next-level players, like ends Brandon Lang and Cam Sheffield, and LB Boris Lee.
Who to watch: If Troy is going to get on a roll, a lot depends on the play of Brown, who has yet to approach his production of a year ago. Now, the Florida defense has a way of doing that to quarterbacks, but the senior wasn’t all that sharp against Bowling Green either. If he can shake off the slow start, it’ll also help spring top rusher DuJuan Harris, who has been repeatedly hemmed in.
What will happen: After getting bumped around on the road the last two weeks, Troy is ready to flex its muscles and showed why it’s favored to be playing a game in December. With far less resistance from the defense than the last two weeks, Brown and Harris will spearhead the offensive attack, peppering an overmatched UAB defense with a mix of the pass and the run.
CFN Prediction: Troy 34 … UAB 24 ... Line:
Troy -7
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 ... Toddlers & Tiaras 1) …
2
Florida International (0-1) at Rutgers (1-1),5:00 EST, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: It took a visit from Howard for Rutgers to ditch the memory of its opening day flop to Cincinnati. It worked. The Scarlet Knights won easily, 45-7, while officially kicking off the Tom Savage era at quarterback. They’ll try to continue the healing process with this week’s visit from Florida International. The Panthers opened the season in Tuscaloosa Saturday, remaining within shouting distance of ‘Bama for almost three quarters before fading in the final 15 minutes. The progress being shown under third-year head coach Mario Cristobal will go into overdrive with a road win against a Big East team.
Why Florida International might win: Hope for an upset can be found in a passing game that features steady veteran QB Paul McCall and his top receivers, 6-3, 200-pound Greg Ellingson and electrifying T.Y. Hilton. Both had five grabs against the Tide, Ellingson going for 92 yards and a score and Hilton adding a kickoff return for a touchdown. In Rutgers’ lone bout with a quality passing team, it was burned for 396 yards and three touchdowns by Tony Pike and the Cincy quarterbacks. It’s a good thing for Florida International that it’s traveling to the Northeast in September, long before nasty weather can impact the offense.
Why Rutgers might win: When faced with a power running game and bigger linemen, Florida International was unable to hold up defensively last weekend. The Panthers will face a similar fate in Piscataway. Rutgers has the big backs, namely 215-pound Joe Martinek and 230-pound Jourdan Brooks, and the veteran line to mash its smaller opponent for 60 minutes. The bulldozing Brooks is coming off one of the best days of his career, running for 124 yards and three scores. With Savage getting more comfortable in his role at quarterback, the Knights will inch closer to the balanced attack they desire.
Who to watch: Savage has begun to develop a rhythm with fellow rookie Mohamed Sanu, a big and physical receiver, who has already caught a dozen passes for 123 yards. It’s a hook-up that’ll have a familiar ring to it over the next four years. Sanu and jackrabbit Tim Brown are going to be challenged all night by all-league CB Anthony Gaitor and an athletic Panther secondary.
What will happen: By Sun Belt standards, Florida International is a team on the rise. Winning five games and playing with Alabama for 45 minutes qualifies as evidence. However, the Panthers still lack the big bodies up front to actually knock off more talented opponents. Rutgers will grind out a second straight win, using its considerable edge in the running game to control the clock and wear out the visitor’s defense.
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 35 … Florida International 19 ... Line:
Rutgers -15
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 1.5
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