2009 WAC Fearless Predictions
Week 3 ... Sept. 19 Games
Boise State |
Fresno State |
Hawaii
|
Idaho
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Louisiana Tech
Nevada |
New Mexico St |
San Jose
State |
Utah State
WAC Fearless Predictions
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Week 1 |
Week 2
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Week 3, Part 2
Game of the Week
Boise State (2-0) at Fresno State (1-1), 9:00 EST, Friday, September 18, ESPN
Why to watch: Fresno State can actually win this game. Pat Hill’s club has been a punching bag for Boise State over the years, and he has yet to pull off an outright WAC title while the Broncos have made winning the championship a yearly habit. But this year, the Bulldogs have the speed, athleticism, and talent to ruin the Boise State dream season before it gets started … but they’ve had the speed, athleticism, and talent before. Boise State is back to being its regular old self with an aggressive defense that doesn’t make a ton of mistakes, an ultra-efficient offense that always comes through when needed, and peerless special teams. The win over Oregon was overshadowed by the LeGarrette Blount punch, but Boise came up with a flawless performance in a 48-0 win over Miami University to show that everything is working in midseason order. Meanwhile, Fresno State had Wisconsin in deep trouble before QB Ryan Colburn threw a bad interception in the second overtime in a 34-31 loss. While Nevada should turn things around after getting wiped out by Notre Dame, and Louisiana Tech should be better than it looked over the first two weeks, this showdown is for the WAC title. These are the two best teams in the league by far, and they should put on a magnificent show.
Why Boise State might win: Fresno State will turn the ball over, and Boise State won’t. Colburn has been fantastic so far for the Bulldog passing game, but he has thrown four interceptions in the first two games and will make one bad, inexperienced throw that he won’t make six games from now, and Boise State will pick it off. On the other side, Boise State should be stingy with the ball and isn’t likely to screw itself up on the road. The defense has the ability to get to Colburn and force him off his game a little bit, while the corners should be able to hang with the Bulldog receivers better than the Wisconsin secondary did.
Why Fresno State might win: The Boise State running game hasn’t really been working. While QB Kellen Moore has WAC Player of the Year potential, and he was excellent last week against MU throwing for 307 yards and four touchdowns with an interception, but the ground game was inexplicably mediocre rushing for just 127 yards and three scores. The Fresno State defensive line is a bit banged up, but it should be fantastic against the run and should keep the Broncos under 150 yards. While the run D allowed a game-changing 71-yard dash to Wisconsin’s John Clay last week, the Bulldogs were able to keep the Badgers under wraps allowing just 107 yards on the ground the rest of the way. If Moore isn’t playing well, Boise State isn’t going to win.
Who to watch: Fresno State always has speed and talent at receiver, and it has a special one in senior Seyi Ajirotutu. Big, strong, and fast, he’s a matchup nightmare for most college corners, but Boise State’s Kyle Wilson isn’t most college corners. Arguably the best defensive player in the WAC, Wilson should have a few fantastic one-on-one battles with Ajirotutu that will get scrutinized and analyzed over and over by the pro scouts over the next several months.
What will happen: Fresno State will have several chances to take control of the game and pull away, but it won’t do it. Boise State will come up with a solid, effective performance on both sides of the ball and will withstand two big Bulldog home runs to come out with a tough, hard-fought win. Fresno will have the ball late with a chance to win, but will turn the ball over leading to a late Bronco score to put it away.
CFN Prediction: Boise State 26 … Fresno State 17 ... Line: Boise State -7.5
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 5
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Nevada (0-1) at Colorado State (2-0), 5:00 EST, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: Nevada has had two weeks to lick its wounds after an awful 35-0 loss to Notre Dame, and now it needs to show why so many thought before the season, and still believe, that this is a sleeper for the WAC title race. The running game didn’t work against the Irish and the secondary got torched, and now the Wolf Pack must come up with a win or the start to the season could be awful with Missouri coming into Reno next week. On the other side, Colorado State will be trying to prove that the season-opening win over the Buffs wasn’t a fluke. Colorado got blasted by Toledo last week, devaluing the Rams’ opening week win, but the bigger problem was their battle to get by Weber State in a 24-23 win. The Mountain West season kicks in full-force next week with a trip to BYU.
Why Nevada might win: The Colorado State offense has hardly been consistent. After running with power and authority on Colorado, cranking out 168 yards, the Rams struggled to get the ground game going against Weber State being held to just 63 yards. The passing game put up big numbers on WSU, gaining 243 yards, but QB Grant Stucker only completed 11-of-24 passes. Nevada will try to control the game on the ground and will try to keep CSU off the field, while the Rams have to get a ground attack of its own going and can’t struggle on third downs.
Why Colorado State might win: The Ram run defense has been fantastic, holding Colorado to just 29 yards and Weber State to 58, and since running is all Nevada is expected to do well, the Wolf Pack offense could be sputtering. Also helping the CSU matchup is the Nevada secondary that was among the worst in America last year and got torched by Notre Dame to start the season. If Stucker can get hot early and hit a few big home runs, the tone of the game could be set and Nevada will have to try to play catchup.
Who to watch: Colorado State senior Rashaun Greer hasn’t scored yet, but he has been an explosive playmaker who was a game-changer in the two wins. He caught two passes for 50 yards against Colorado, and he ripped up Weber State for 162 yards on six catches. Even if he’s not making the grab, he’ll be a threat the Wolf Pack secondary will have to keep an eye on for the entire game. That will open things up for Leonard Mason and a running game that has good potential.
What will happen: Nevada’s running game will work far better than it did against Notre Dame, but it won’t be enough. Stucker will throw for 275 yards and the Pack will be trying to play catch-up all game long.
CFN Prediction: Colorado State 27 … Nevada 24 ... Line: Nevada -3.5
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 2.5
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Utah State (0-1) at Texas A&M (1-0), 7:00 EST, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: If nothing else, the two teams are rested after playing well in Week One. Utah State, in the first game under new head coach Gary Andersen, did a decent job at Utah in a 35-17 loss. It wasn’t necessarily a close game on the stat sheet, but the Aggies hung around and showed a little explosion and pop. Texas A&M has had two weeks off after blowing away New Mexico 41-6, and while that doesn’t seem like that big a deal now after the Lobos got thumped by Tulsa, but after struggling throughout last year, Mike Sherman’s team will take it. The A&M version of the Aggies get UAB next week, so the potential is there for a big start before finishing up the non-conference slate at Arkansas to kick off a run of three games in four weeks away from home. This is an improving, young program that needs as many big performances as possible, and this should be a good chance to open up the offense a little more.
Why Utah State might win: Andersen has upgraded the defense in a big way by moving a slew of players around to get the best athletes on the field. This might not be a dominant Utah State defense, and there will be some growing pains as everyone figures out what they’re doing, but they should be far more disruptive and they should do a far better job of forcing turnovers. It’s not going to be easy to keep A&M’s attack under wraps, but USU should be able to come up with just enough of a pass rush and just enough turnovers to stay alive for more than the first few drives.
Why Texas A&M might win:Utah State got into the backfield against Utah, but it didn’t matter. The Utes threw for 286 yards without a problem, and A&M should have even more success with a decent running game to take the heat off. Jerrod Johnson should add a more vertical element to the passing attack than Utah State saw out of the Utes, and he should be able to hit the 300-yard mark easily if he gets a little bit of time. Defensively, if A&M can keep the USU ground game to under 200 yards, this will be a blowout.
Who to watch: Mike Sherman’s best chance of winning on a weekly basis will be with the passing game, but he wants to run the ball and he has a stud in true freshman Christine Michael. He has all the tools with size, power, and home-run hitting speed, and he showed them all off rushing for 93 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries against New Mexico. He’ll see more of a role this week, and it would make the coaching staff extremely happy if he ends up carrying the offense instead of Johnson.
What will happen: The Aggies will win, guaranteed.
CFN Prediction: Texas A&M 40 … Utah State 13 ... Line: Texas A&M -17.5
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 1.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Nicholls State (1-1) at Louisiana Tech (0-2), 7:00 EST, Saturday, September 19
Why to watch: It’s been a depressing start for a Louisiana Tech team that came into the season with sky-high hopes. There’s still time to turn the season around, WAC play starts next week against Hawaii, but the offense has to show up after struggling against Auburn and Navy in blowout losses. Nicholls State should provide just the cure with a mediocre offensive attack and a defense that gave up 72 points in the season opener against Air Force.
Why Nicholls State might win: The punting game has been terrific. That might not seem like that big a deal, but considering Louisiana Tech’s offense is averaging a pathetic 206 yards per game, field position could be a really big deal. For all of their problems, the Colonels can run well, while Tech has the third worst run defense in the young season giving up 592 yards so far.
Why Louisiana Tech might win:72-0. Air Force rolled up 474 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground in the season opening blowout, and while Louisiana Tech doesn’t have enough pop to the running game to get to that level, it could get half of that production. That would be enough. The Bulldogs don’t have to worry about a Colonel passing game; there isn’t any. This is a running team that has only gained 72 yards through the air in two games. Against Duquesne, NSU QB Jacob Witt completed 1-of-6 passes for ten yards with two interceptions. That was the Colonel passing attack.
Who to watch: Louisiana Tech needs better, more consistent quarterback play from junior Ross Jenkins. The team has been looking for a playmaker at the position for a few years, and Jenkins, whose job it is to keep the chains moving and to not screw up, hasn’t done much through the air so far with 305 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions in two games. He has a little bit of mobility, but for Tech to be a factor in the WAC, he has to prove he can make things happen down the field with his arm. This is the game to do that.
What will happen: The Bulldogs will be able to name their own score in an easy win. NSU will get 200 yards rushing, but it won’t matter.
CFN Prediction: Louisiana Tech 52 … Nicholls State 10 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Melrose Place 5 … Toddlers & Tiaras 1) … 1
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