2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 4 ... Sept. 26 Games, Part 2
Cincinnati
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Connecticut
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Louisville
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Pittsburgh
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Rutgers
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South
Florida |
Syracuse
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West
Virginia
Big East Fearless Predictions
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Week 3
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Week 4, Part 1
Pitt (3-0) at NC State (2-1),3:30 EST, ESPNU, Saturday, September 26
Why to watch: After three games, NC State remains a pack of mysteries. Is this the team that couldn’t score a touchdown in an opening night loss to South Carolina or the one that’s ripped through grossly overmatched FCS teams the last two weekends? If Tom O’Brien’s kids have truly evolved since the beginning of the month, they’ll need to prove it against stronger competition. Pittsburgh, for instance. The Panthers have reached 3-0 for the first time since 2000, beating Youngstown, Buffalo, and Navy by at least 13 points. This will also be a step up in weight class for Pitt, which has yet to play a school from a major conference. A win here could propel the program into the Top 25 and improve its profile as a Big East contender.
Why Pittsburgh might win: The last time NC State faced a quality defense, it managed three points and 133 total yards. The Panthers are capable of putting the Pack in a similar choke hold. The defense has been outstanding, racking up 15 sacks in three games and clamping down in run defense. Even Navy could only muster 129 yards and less than three yards a carry last Saturday. DE Greg Romeus, DT Mick Williams, and LB Adam Gunn head a fantastic and ferocious front seven that’s capable of flushing Russell Wilson from the pocket and making him pay when he heads downfield. And now true freshman LB Dan Mason has already been named Big East Defensive Player of the Week after replacing an injured Gunn for the Middie game.
Why NC State might win: Sure, a lot of the yards came against the prevent, but Buffalo may have exposed a weakness in the Pitt D, its secondary. The Panthers gave up 433 yards and four touchdowns on that day, picking off just one pass. Wilson doesn’t make mistakes, and both he and his teammates have gained confidence and valuable snaps in the last two blowouts. He’s thrown four touchdown passes each of the last two weekends, as RB Toney Baker has officially shaken off all of the rust from his nearly two years on the IR. He’s gone for 145 yards and four scores on 22 carries since the opener, flashing the power and speed that has the staff excited.
Who to watch: It’s no secret that QB Bill Stull is one of Pitt’s key figures for 2009, so when he starts fast, everyone becomes cautiously optimistic. While he doesn’t have a high ceiling, he’s been managing the game better, completing more than 70% of his passes, and not turning the ball over. If he can continue to be well-protected and occasionally get the ball downfield to Jonathan Baldwin, the Panthers’ hopes for a conference title increase exponentially.
What will happen: This is one of those show-me games for both programs, so plenty is at stake for Pitt and NC State. The single best unit at Carter-Finley Stadium will be the Panther D, which will prove to be the difference in a close, low-scoring affair. Pittsburgh will toy with a bad Wolfpack interior, keeping Wilson and Baker from making many plays, while RB Dion Lewis does just enough on the ground to get the team over the hump.
CFN Prediction: Pitt 20… NC State 17 ... Line: NC State -1
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 2.5
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Maine (2-1) at Syracuse (1-2),7:00 EST, Saturday, September 26
Why to watch: Not only did the first win in the Doug Marrone era come against a Big Ten opponent, but it came in exciting fashion as well. The Orange, which had come so close in the opener with Minnesota and played hard at Penn State, finally broke through, 37-34, on a 40-yard Ryan Lichtenstein field goal as time expired. Regardless of the opponent, just getting to 2-2 would be an enormous confidence for a program in need of a lift. Maine is traditionally a solid program out of the dangerous Colonial Athletic Conference. The Bears are 2-1, though last week’s lost to Albany (NY) of the Northeast Conference is not a good omen going forward.
Why Maine might win: The Bears can run the ball. The Bears always seem to be able to run the ball. Derek Session is one of the FCS’ leading rushers, having already gone for 314 yards and three scores on 63 carries. Maine will be facing a Syracuse defense that just made Northwestern QB Mike Kafka look like All-American timber, so running room could be there for Session and athletic QB Mike Brusko.
Why Syracuse might win: Was last week’s upset a turning point for the Orange offense? It sure looked that way for four quarters against a far tougher opponent than the one visiting this Saturday night. QB Greg Paulus was on target, going 24-of-35 for 346 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick. Mike Williams was on the receiving end of 11 of those passes for 209 yards and two scores, while Delone Carter continues providing balance in the running game.
Who to watch: As bad the Syracuse D has been, it’s hard to fault the run defense, which has actually been surprisingly stout. The Orange is No. 19 nationally at stopping the run, improving since the opener with Minnesota and allowing just 2.5 yards a carry. A lot of the credit belongs to NT Arthur Jones, who won’t always get the big numbers, but requires more than one blocker and has the quickness to blow up plays before they get started. He’s the one sure-fire Syracuse player with a future on Sundays.
What will happen: With a rare head of steam, Syracuse will blow past Maine without much resistance, reaching .500 for a symbolic milestone in Upstate New York. While Paulus will continue to further his relationship with Williams through the air, the improved Orange defense will have few problems with a one-dimensional Bear attack that won’t be able to exploit weaknesses in the secondary.
CFN Prediction: Syracuse 41 … Maine 10 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 1
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Louisville (1-1) at Utah (2-1),7:30 EST, Saturday, September 26
Why to watch: Its 16-game winning streak now history, Utah returns home determined to get another one started. While last week’s 31-24 loss at Oregon pretty much ended hopes for a return to a BCS bowl game, the Utes still have plenty of goals on the vine, like winning another Mountain West crown and finishing the season ranked. They’ll have to get their act together in a hurry because the league schedule gets going in a week. Louisville played better than expected at rival Kentucky, yet still lost a heartbreaker, 31-27, so its psyche might be a little bruised as well. The Cardinals began the season with modest expectations, making this underdog role another opportunity to vex the experts and take some heat off head coach Steve Kragthorpe.
Why Louisville might win: Utah’s problems stopping the run this month creates an opening for a Cardinal offense looking to bring along first-year QB Justin Burke slowly. Victor Anderson is one of the Big East’s top backs, rushing for 203 yards and three touchdowns through the first two weeks. If he and Bilal Powell can help avoid third-and-long situations for Burke, the junior will have an easier time hooking up with top receivers Scott Long and Doug Beaumont.
Why Utah might win: Physical RB Matt Asiata is getting closer to being healthy, which is exactly what the Utes need on offense. The 5-11, 220-pounder was limited in Eugene, which minimized the offensive gameplan and forced QB Terrance Cain to have to do too much. Since Louisville has a mediocre offensive line, Utah will look to attack whenever possible with LB Stevenson Sylvester and SS Joe Dale. If someone doesn’t consistently get a hat on Sylvester, he’s the type of player, who can take over a game with his speed and intensity.
Who to watch: Cain might like what he sees from the Louisville secondary, a group that’s short on genuine stoppers. The junior-college transfer will be looking to bounce back from a poor effort, going just 20-of-41 for 178 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Upperclassmen David Reed, Jereme Brooks, and John Peel form a veteran corps of receivers that’ll get chances to find the soft spots in this defense.
What will happen: Louisville really stepped up the level of its play from Week 1 to Week 2, but will have to do so again to deliver this upset in Salt Lake City. While Utah is clearly not the same team as last year, being back home and getting Asiata closer to full strength will get it back on track. Burke versus a quality Ute secondary is not a favorable match up if the Cards fall behind.
CFN Prediction: Utah 31 … Louisville 21 ... Line: Utah -14
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 2
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Week 4, Part 1