2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 4 ... Sept. 26 Games
Cincinnati
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Connecticut
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Louisville
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Pittsburgh
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Rutgers
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South
Florida |
Syracuse
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West
Virginia
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Game of the Week
South Florida (3-0) at Florida State (2-1),12:00 EST, Saturday, ESPNU, September 26
Why to watch: How ironic? When South Florida arrives in Tallahassee to face Florida State for the first time, it’ll be without QB Matt Grothe, one of the seminal figures in the school’s rise to national notoriety. Grothe tore his ACL in last week’s 59-0 rout of Charleston Southern, prematurely ending his college career about 10 games too soon. The B.J. Daniels era was going to start eventually, but Jim Leavitt never imagined it would be in 2009. Good luck reading the tea leaves on Florida State going forward. The same Seminole team that needed to rally to beat Jacksonville State at home a week earlier went up to Provo and absolutely strip-searched No. 7 BYU in a 54-28 shocker. Will the real ‘Noles kindly stand up? If last weekend’s performance was the genuine article, an ACC title remains there for the taking.
Why South Florida might win: Until the offense locates its sea legs, the defense will have to carry the Bulls. It’s more than capable of delivering. Sure, the competition has been mealy, but 20 points allowed in three games is still impressive. South Florida has all-conference types at every level. DE George Selvie and DT Terrill McClain are disruptive types capable of getting penetration and making stops behind the line. LB Kion Wilson already has 20 tackles resting early in the blowouts. And CB Jerome Murphy and S Nate Allen have next-level potential.
Why Florida State might win: Daniels is a dangerous dual-threat, with a tremendous future in Tampa, but this is going to be a very tough spot for a redshirt freshman starting his first game. The ‘Noles have done a solid job against the run, South Florida’s strength, which will force the young quarterback to the air more often than he’d like. The Florida State offense may have turned a corner in Utah last week. QB Christian Ponder had one of the best games of his career, going 21-of-26 for 195 yards and two touchdowns, adding 77 yards and another score on the ground. He’s also starting to get more help from a pair of sophomores, RB Ty Jones and 6-3, 223-pound WR Jarmon Fortson.
Who to watch: Turnovers play a big part in every game. Advantage ‘Noles. Florida State leads the ACC in turnover margin, thanks in part to dynamite true freshman CB Greg Reid, who has two picks and will be a nuisance to Daniels. One of those interceptions occurred last Saturday, a 63-yarder for a touchdown that broke the back of BYU.
What will happen: Even with Grothe, this figured to be a difficult test for South Florida. Without him, the Bulls lose too much leadership and playmaking ability to wipe the smile off Florida State’s face. Plus, while USF hasn’t even been challenged past halftime, FSU has already played in three competitive games. That’s a big difference in terms of preparation. Ponder will stay hot with three more touchdowns, getting handed a couple of short-field chances from the defense.
CFN Prediction: Florida State 30 … South Florida 16 ... Line: Florida State -14.5
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Fresno State (1-2) at Cincinnati (3-0),12:00 EST, ESPN Gameplan, Saturday, September 26
Why to watch: With two of its toughest road games now in the win column, Cincinnati is beginning to emerge as the favorite to win the Big East for a second straight season. Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and South Florida will still have something to say about that, but the 14th-ranked Bearcats just picked up the league’s best win of the season, beating Oregon State in Corvallis. Clearing that hurdle in a hostile environment removes the cap on just how far this program might be able to reach in 2009. Fresno State arrives, as usual, without any concerns about taking a step up in weight class. Over the last two weeks, Pat Hill’s kids took Wisconsin into overtime in Madison and went blow-for-blow with Boise State before fading in the final quarter. The Bulldogs would love to turn one of these near-misses into an upset before WAC play dominates the schedule.
Why Fresno State might win: Despite the thorny September schedule, the Bulldogs are among the most potent offenses in the country after three games, combining an explosive ground game with the low-risk passing of Ryan Colburn. RB Ryan Mathews has been sublime between the tackles, leading the country in rushing after piercing a good Boise State defense for 238 yards and three scoring runs of at least 60 yards. He’s good enough to take a game over, especially the way Andrew Jackson and the rest of the offensive line has been blocking.
Why Cincinnati might win: The main reason Fresno State is 1-2 instead of 2-1 is that the defense has had too many breakdowns, particularly in run defense. Brian Kelly and his seasoned offense will have few problems exploiting this group. QB Tony Pike has been performing like a fringe Heisman contender, throwing eight touchdown passes to just two picks and developing quite a rhythm with receivers Mardy Gilyard, DJ Woods, and Armon Binns. Considering Fresno State’s troubles stopping the run, this might be the kind of game where the Bearcats flex their depth at running back by giving more touches to Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey.
Who to watch: Without much attention, first-year Cincinnati defensive coordinator has done a brilliant job with the difficult situation he inherited. Despite beginning the season with 10 new starters, the Bearcats have yet to allow more than 18 points in a game and are No. 5 nationally in turnover margin. Sans any star power, Diaco has gotten help from all over the depth chart. Witness redshirt freshman LB Walter Stewart, for instance. In his first game replacing the injured Curtis Young, he went out and made four tackles and 2.5 sacks in the Oregon State win.
What will happen: Fresno State comes in battle-tested, and should have success running the ball with Mathews and that physical line. Stopping the Bearcats, however, won’t be in the cards for the Bulldogs. Pike is playing at a raised level, and provided DE Chris Carter is kept out of his space, that isn’t about to change. The senior will once again lead the way, fending off the challenge behind a balanced and effective offensive attack.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 38 … Fresno State 20 ... Line: Cincinnati -16.5
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Rhode Island (1-1) at Connecticut (2-1),12:00 EST, Saturday, September 26
Why to watch: While it certainly wasn’t going to register even a blip on the national radar, Connecticut’s road win at Baylor as a 10-point underdog was a huge development for the program. A week after losing a heartbreaker at home to North Carolina and starting QB Zach Frazer to a knee injury, the Huskies showed a ton of resiliency in Waco. With another win likely on the horizon, last weekend could prove to be a turning point in their season. Rhode Island is your garden variety Colonial Athletic Association program, which would love nothing more than to get some local bragging rights at the expense of Connecticut. The Rams have split their first two games, beating Fordham before getting whipped by Massachusetts last weekend.
Why Rhode Island might win: The Rams have enough balance on offense to keep up with a Connecticut attack that lacks a passing game and is averaging just 21 points a game. Chris Paul-Etienne is not your ordinary Rhode Island quarterback. A legitimate dual-threat from Miami, he began his college career at Rutgers. He gets plenty of support from north-south RB Anthony Ferrer, a veteran corps of receivers, and a line that’s yielded just a single sack.
Why Connecticut might win: The familiar blueprint of defense and the running game will be too much against an inferior opponent, like Rhode Island. The Huskies have multiple backs, who are capable of carrying the load. Both Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon are on pace for 1,000 yards after three games, and could reach 100 with enough carries in this one. Dixon, the backup, is coming off a monster game at Baylor, rushing 31 times for 149 yards and three scores. After bottling up Robert Griffin, that stingy Connecticut D will have few problems with Paul-Etienne and the Rams.
Who to watch: Connecticut DE Lindsey Witten is making quite a salary run in his final year in Storrs. A rangy situational guy for most of his career, he’s packed on some pounds and gotten off to a fast start as the heir apparent to Cody Brown on the outside. Through three games, he’s got 16 tackles, seven sacks, and a couple of forced fumbles.
What will happen: After using all 60 minutes to get past Baylor a week ago, Connecticut gets a much-needed breather for the first time this fall. The Huskies will roll behind the running of Todman and Dixon, and a defense that won’t allow more than 250 total yards. This also represents a great chance for Cody Endres, Frazer’s replacement, to get maximum snaps without feeling too much pressure.
CFN Prediction: Connecticut 45 … Rhode Island 3 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Rutgers (2-1) at Maryland (1-2),3:30 EST, Saturday, September 26
Why to watch: Neither Rutgers nor Maryland has started the season the way it had hoped, which means the loser of this game could dig a ditch that it never escapes. The only reason the Scarlet Knights are over .500 is soft scheduling. After getting swamped by Cincinnati in the opener, they may have gained a false sense of security at the expense of Howard and Florida International. A trip down to College Park will begin to answer just how far this team has evolved since the Labor Day lambasting. The Terps are flat-lining with no sign of a pulse in sight. Young and abundantly mistake-prone, they’ve sandwiched brutal losses to Cal and Middle Tennessee State around an overtime escape of James Madison. Not only might this be Ralph Friedgen’s worst Maryland team, but fewer and fewer fans are showing up at Byrd Stadium.
Why Rutgers might win: One date with Maryland might be all the Scarlet Knights need to fix its offensive woes. The Terrapins have been dreadful through three games, allowing an average of 39 points while getting ransacked on the ground. Look for Rutgers to get back to basics, especially considering its issues with pass protection. It’ll dish out a double-dose of Joe Martinek and Jourdan Brooks, wearing out the overmatched Terps and setting up QB Tom Savage to find receivers Tim Brown and Mohamed Sanu.
Why Maryland might win: The last time Rutgers faced an opponent from a major conference, it was gutted by Cincinnati for 47 points and well over 500 yards. Now, the Terps aren’t the Bearcats, but they have scored 69 points over the last two weeks, a cooperative effort from QB Chris Turner, RB Da’Rel Scott, and WR Torrey Smith. A Scarlet Knight defense that’s light on the inside and vulnerable through the air will out quickly that Maryland has better athletes than the ones at Howard and Florida International.
Who to watch: Maryland has moved the ball the last two weeks in spite of a very flimsy offensive line that misses injured Bruce Campbell. It may not be so fortunate this weekend. George Johnson and Jonathan Freeny bring outstanding speed off the edge for Rutgers, which is going to be a persistent problem for Turner. At 6-3 and 250 pounds, Freeny moves like an outside linebacker, collecting a pair of sacks in each of the last two games.
What will happen: Although this game won’t generate interest outside the region, it is a huge one for two schools seeking a turning point. About the only sure thing in this one is that sloppiness and poor execution will be an on-going theme. After allowing 324 yards passing to Middle Tennessee State’s Dwight Dasher, there’s no telling how far the Maryland D will plummet. Rutgers will try to find out, bludgeoning the Terps with its 230-pound backs and getting an efficient day out of Savage.
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 28 … Maryland 24 ... Line: Rutgers -2.5
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 4, Part 2 (Pitt at NC
State, & more)