2009 Ind & ND Fearless Predictions - Week 4

Previews and Predictions for the Week 4 Conference USA Games

2009 Independent Fearless Predictions

Week 4 ... Sept. 25 Games

Army | Navy | Notre Dame 

Independent Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week

Western Kentucky (0-3) at Navy (1-2),3:30 EST, Saturday, September 26

Why to watch: After playing physical games at Ohio State and Pittsburgh this month, a visit from lowly Western Kentucky will be a welcome sight for Navy. The Middies have played well, losing by just four to the Buckeyes and 13 to the Panthers, but like the last two seasons, will need to get off the deck and start amassing enough wins to become bowl-eligible. The Hilltoppers, too, have opened with a challenging schedule, facing Tennessee and South Florida, but the results have been much different. Not only were they not competitive in either game, losing by a combined score of 98-20, but they also lost to Central Arkansas at home a week ago. Dave Elson has a steep mountain to climb in the school’s first season in the Sun Belt Conference.
Why Western Kentucky might win: By its usual standards, this is not the typical Navy team that’ll run through opponents as if they’re a man short. Yeah, the triple-option is still the preferred method of travel in Annapolis, but the Middies haven’t been executing particularly, gaining just 129 yards on 46 carries against Pitt a week ago. Now, the Hilltoppers won’t be confused with the Panthers, but if Navy can’t establish the run for a second straight week, it’s not as if Ricky Dobbs and the 117th-ranked passing game will bail it out.
Why Navy might win: Even if the ground game hiccups occasionally, Dobbs, Marcus Curry, and Alexander Teich will make sure the Middies grind out at least 200 yards and keep Western Kentucky off the field for long stretches of time. The Hilltoppers are averaging just nine points a game, which won’t be nearly enough to be competitive in this game. The bend-don’t-break Navy D has played well in September, led by linebackers Ross Pospisil, Tony Haberer, and Tyler Simmons.
Who to watch: When the Hilltopper quarterbacks drop back to pass, they better keep an eye on DE Jabaree Tuani. Navy’s best pass rusher, he’s been neutralized in the early going, but could have his breakout game of 2009 on Saturday afternoon. The rare freshman to get significant reps a year ago, he flashed tremendous upside throughout his rookie season.
What will happen: Western Kentucky is an FBS member, but just barely. The Hilltoppers are a bad football team, which will incur the wrath of a Navy squad that’s itching to flex its muscles on a weaker opponent. The Midshipmen will get the running game cranking again, while holding the ball for almost two-thirds of the game.
CFN Prediction: Navy 42 … Western Kentucky 10 ... Line: Navy -29.5
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 1.5
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Army (2-1) at Iowa State (2-1), 7:00 EST, Saturday, September 26

Why to watch: It’s not a stretch to call this a bowl elimination game. The winner will still have a lot of work to do and some upsets to get through to get an extra game, but this is one that each team has to have. Army has been solid under new head coach Rich Ellerson, and if nothing else, it has shown it can play in the MAC with wins over Eastern Michigan and Ball State. With a winnable game against Tulane coming up next week, the Knights can go on a nice run to start the first half of the season, while being able to look forward to a potentially decent second half with game against Temple and VMI still to play. Iowa State needs this game more with the Big 12 slate kicking in against Kansas State next week. The Cyclones won the two games they were supposed to win, beating North Dakota State and Kent State with ease, but they didn’t show up against Iowa. Each team can run the ball, so don’t blink. The game might be over in less than three hours.
Why Army might win: The Iowa State run defense isn’t good enough at the second level to prevent the big play. The line has been fine, but the linebackers should have a nightmare of a time figuring out the angles and the assignments to stop the Army ground attack. On defense, the Knights can get into the backfield with an ultra-aggressive style that keeps the heat on the quarterback. Iowa State’s Austen Arnaud can move, but he needs time to make the mediocre passing game work.
Why Iowa State might win: The Cyclone defensive front can get into the backfield, too. The Army offensive line has been fine, but it hasn’t been anything special and it can be pushed around a little bit for stretches. The aggressive Iowa State front four should make several plays behind the line and it should stop the Army option several times before it can get started. Army is dead-last in the nation in passing, and it doesn’t even offer the threat of a big play through the air.
Who to watch: An interesting offseason oddity has turned into a major part of the Army offense. 6-10, 285-pound Ali Villanueva is a former offensive tackle who was moved to wide receiver this offseason. While he’s used mostly as a good blocker for the running game, he’s also tied for the team lead in receptions. While he has only caught six passes, they came in the last two weeks for 114 yards and two scores. He’s not going to fly past anyone, but he’s a matchup nightmare who plays like a really, really big tight end.
What will happen: It should be an interesting, entertaining game. The Army offense will control the clock and will control the tempo of the game, and Iowa State won’t be able to find a rhythm. The Cyclones don’t have enough of a passing game to be a threat, and they won’t be able to come back late.
CFN Prediction: Army 23 … Iowa State 20 ... Line: Iowa State -9.5
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 2.5
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at Notre Dame (2-1) at Purdue (1-2) , 8:00 EST, Saturday, September 26, ESPN

Why to watch: There will be a whole bunch of passing and chunks of yards given up in this week’s version of the Must Win Or Else game for Charlie Weis. The Irish will complete the Big Ten portion of the program after being saved by a wide-open miss by Michigan State at the end of last week’s win and with Michigan pulling off a late shocker two weeks ago. Purdue is back to being the wide-open team it was known for a decade ago, but it hasn’t translated into wins. The Boilermakers have lost two straight following up a heartbreaker against Oregon with a home clunker against Northern Illinois, and now they get to find out how good they really are before diving into Big Ten play against Northwestern. This is game two of a run of five home dates in six for the Boilermakers, but with a tough slate ahead, and after the loss to NIU this might be a must-win to have any real hope of going bowing.
Why Purdue might win: The Irish secondary has been terrible. The defensive front is providing a little bit of pressure, but not enough, while the defensive backs have given up way too many yards in key moments. Michigan’s Tate Forcier threw well when he had to, and Michigan State’s passers combined to bomb away for 354 yards and two touchdowns. The Irish were saved by a bad throw by MSU QB Kirk Cousins, who missed a wide open receiver for what would’ve been the game-winning touchdown, and it was followed up by a second bad throw leading to a Notre Dame game-sealing interception. Before that he bombed away at will, and Purdue’s Joey Elliott, should do the same. However …
Why Notre Dame might win:… he has had problems with interceptions, throwing five in the first two games. Kept under wraps a little bit last week as he tried to be stingier with the ball, he was mistake-free but the offense fell flat against NIU. Offensively, Notre Dame should be able to do whatever it wants to through the air. QB Jimmy Clausen has a bum toe, but he should add on to his suddenly-amazing passing stats against a secondary that gave up 423 yards to Toledo in the opener and was saved the last two weeks only because the run defense was getting gouged. The Purdue secondary really isn’t that bad, but you won’t know it this week.
Who to watch: Who’ll replace Michael Floyd? Before breaking his collarbone against Michigan State, the Irish star was on his way to an All-American season was one of college football’s most dangerous deep threats. Now it’ll be up to Golden Tate to do even more as the No. 1 target. He stepped up last week catching seven passes for 127 yards and a score, but he can’t do it alone meaning the opportunities will be there for Kyle Rudolph, Duval Kamara, and Robby Parris to become bigger parts of the offense.
What will happen: Clausen will throw for 350 in a fun shootout. Purdue will keep up the pace, but four turnovers will prove too costly to overcome as the Irish go to Armando Allen and the ground game late to capitalize on the key mistakes.
CFN Prediction: Notre Dame 38 … Purdue 27 … ... Line: Notre Dame -7
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 3
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