2009 Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
Week 4 ... Sept. 26 Games
Arkansas State |
Florida Atlantic
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Florida International
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MTSU
North Texas
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Troy
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UL Lafayette
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UL Monroe |
Western Kentucky
Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
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Week 1 |
Week 2
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Week 3
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Week 4, Part 1
Game of the Week
Troy (1-2) at Arkansas State (1-1), 4:30 EST, Saturday, September 26, ESPN GamePlan
Why to watch: Middle Tennessee has looked fantastic, Florida Atlantic will get it together, and Louisiana-Lafayette will be a player in the Sun Belt title race. That’s why this showdown between Troy and Arkansas State could go a long way to determining who goes to the New Orleans Bowl. The loser won’t be out of the race, but it won’t be in good shape. Troy was disappointing in an opening day loss at Bowling Green, but it came up with a strong performance against UAB in a 27-14 win that might have turned things around. If the Trojans can get by this, they should go on a roll with three home games in the next four. For Arkansas State, this is a must win with a brutal slate ahead. The Red Wolves go on the road for three of the next four weeks and five in the next seven games, and they need to knock off the star of the conference to show that they’ve arrived.
Why Troy might win: Troy’s defense is far, far better than it showed over the first three games, and it had a tune-up for this game by playing UAB. If the Trojans could keep UAB QB Joe Webb under wraps, they should be able to hold down Corey Leonard and the ASU backfield thanks to its talented, veteran linebacking corps. If field position means anything, Troy has a huge advantage thanks to a punting game that’s averaging close to 42 yards per boot, while ASU is netting a mere 30.7 yards per try.
Why Arkansas State might win: ASU did a decent job against the Nebraska running game, holding it to 136 yards and a touchdown. The Huskers bombed away with a crisp passing game, but the Red Wolves should do a good job of getting to Troy QB Levi Brown and throwing off the timing, which they weren’t able to do in Lincoln. If Troy has to win with the running game, it’ll be in trouble. The offensive line hasn’t been up to snuff compared to past Trojan lines, and it’s going to have trouble with the attacking ASU defensive front.
Who to watch: Levi Brown had a strong run last year when he took over the Troy starting quarterback job, throwing 15 touchdown passes and three interceptions, and he started out with an interesting first three games. He has already thrown four picks, but he was awesome against UAB completing 24-of-32 passes for 413 yards and two scores. He threw three touchdown passes in last year’s easy win over ASU, and he’ll need to be sharp again.
What will happen: Troy’s defense will show up … finally. ASU will be looking to finally get over the Troy hump, and QB Corey Leonard will be looking to come up with a special performance, but the Trojans will get a great game out of Bear Woods, who’s back at linebacker to join Boris Lee, and Brown will be just efficient enough to pull off the win.
CFN Prediction: Troy 24 … Arkansas State 16 ... Line: Arkansas State -2
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 3
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Western Kentucky (0-3) at Navy (1-2),3:30 EST, Saturday, September 26
Why to watch: After playing physical games at Ohio State and Pittsburgh this month, a visit from lowly Western Kentucky will be a welcome sight for Navy. The Middies have played well, losing by just four to the Buckeyes and 13 to the Panthers, but like the last two seasons, will need to get off the deck and start amassing enough wins to become bowl-eligible. The Hilltoppers, too, have opened with a challenging schedule, facing Tennessee and South Florida, but the results have been much different. Not only were they not competitive in either game, losing by a combined score of 98-20, but they also lost to Central Arkansas at home a week ago. Dave Elson has a steep mountain to climb in the school’s first season in the Sun Belt Conference.
Why Western Kentucky might win: By its usual standards, this is not the typical Navy team that’ll run through opponents as if they’re a man short. Yeah, the triple-option is still the preferred method of travel in Annapolis, but the Middies haven’t been executing particularly, gaining just 129 yards on 46 carries against Pitt a week ago. Now, the Hilltoppers won’t be confused with the Panthers, but if Navy can’t establish the run for a second straight week, it’s not as if Ricky Dobbs and the 117th-ranked passing game will bail it out.
Why Navy might win: Even if the ground game hiccups occasionally, Dobbs, Marcus Curry, and Alexander Teich will make sure the Middies grind out at least 200 yards and keep Western Kentucky off the field for long stretches of time. The Hilltoppers are averaging just nine points a game, which won’t be nearly enough to be competitive in this game. The bend-don’t-break Navy D has played well in September, led by linebackers Ross Pospisil, Tony Haberer, and Tyler Simmons.
Who to watch: When the Hilltopper quarterbacks drop back to pass, they better keep an eye on DE Jabaree Tuani. Navy’s best pass rusher, he’s been neutralized in the early going, but could have his breakout game of 2009 on Saturday afternoon. The rare freshman to get significant reps a year ago, he flashed tremendous upside throughout his rookie season.
What will happen: Western Kentucky is an FBS member, but just barely. The Hilltoppers are a bad football team, which will incur the wrath of a Navy squad that’s itching to flex its muscles on a weaker opponent. The Midshipmen will get the running game cranking again, while holding the ball for almost two-thirds of the game.
CFN Prediction: Navy 42 … Western Kentucky 10 ... Line: Navy -29.5
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 1.5
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ULM (1-2) at Florida Atlantic (0-2), 3:30 EST, Saturday, September 26
Why to watch: It has been a rocky start for both teams that were hoping for a road upset over a big boy, but it didn’t happen. Florida Atlantic wasn’t close against Nebraska and South Carolina, while ULM beat Texas Southern but lost to Texas and Arizona State. The start of the Sun Belt season allows each team to wipe the slate clean, but FAU needs the win more. ULM is closing out the end of a run of three road games in the first four, and has four more road games to go, but a win at FAU would do wonders with FIU and Arkansas State up next at home. FAU goes on the road for three of the next four games and can’t afford to give away any home games in conference play.
Why ULM might win: The FAU offense has yet to get going. Nebraska and South Carolina can play a little defense, but the Owls haven’t been able to close out drives with points. The bigger problem is against the run where the Huskers and Gamecocks ran amok. The ULM defensive front hasn’t been able to get into the backfield and hasn’t been able to stop running plays before they get going. ULM has to take advantage of this and should be able to run wide whenever needed.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: The ULM secondary should have problems with Rusty Smith and the FAU passing game. Finally, Smith should see more open receivers and he should be able to get more of his short to midrange passes going against a ULM secondary that struggled against UT’s Colt McCoy and ASU’s Danny Sullivan. For all the problems FAU has had to start the year, the offensive line hasn’t been decent in pass protection. Smith should get all the time he needs.
Who to watch: How creative will the ULM coaches get with WR Darrell McNeal? He was supposed to be used at quarterback as a runner from time to time, to go along with his receiving duties, but it hasn’t happened yet. He has just four carries so far, with all of them coming in the opener against the Longhorns, while he caught 11 passes for 162 yards and two scores. He’ll be used more now to get the offense going, and he could be a do-it-all playmaker on offense to go along with his kick and punt return duties.
What will happen: ULM will get 250 yards rushing, but it won’t be enough to overcome a huge day from Smith in the Owl home opener. The Warhawks will play well, but the Owls will show why they’re among the favorites to win the Sun Belt title.
CFN Prediction: Florida Atlantic 31 … ULM 23 ... Line: Florida Atlantic -4
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 2
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