2009 WAC Fearless Predictions
Week 4 ... Sept. 26 Games
Boise State |
Fresno State |
Hawaii
|
Idaho
|
Louisiana Tech
Nevada |
New Mexico St |
San Jose
State |
Utah State
WAC Fearless Predictions
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Week 2 |
Week 3
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Week 4, Part 2, (NMSU at
New Mexico, and More)
Game of the Week
Missouri (3-0) at Nevada (0-2), 9:00 EST, Friday, September 25, ESPN
Why to watch: Among the nation’s biggest early disappointments is Nevada, a veteran-loaded team that got skunked by Notre Dame to open the season in an ugly 35-0 loss, and then got rumbled over by Colorado State in a 35-20 clunker after getting two weeks to prepare. But it’s early, and the momentum can quickly change around with a nationally televised game against a Missouri team coming off a 52-12 blasting of Furman. The Tigers beat Nevada 69-17 last season in Columbia, but this is a vastly different team with wholesale changes in the passing game. But the results have been the same with Blaine Gabbert growing into the starting quarterback role while the defense has stepped up its play after a disastrous 2008. With the Big 12 opener against Nebraska up next week, the Tigers have to be fully tuned up and have to show they can stuff a good running attack.
Why Missouri might win: Nevada had the worst pass defense in the country last year, and it hasn’t been much better this year allowing 522 yards and seven touchdowns in the first two games. Making matters worse is a defense that’s not forcing turnovers, failing to come up with a takeaway over the first two games while the offense has given away four fumbles and four interceptions leading the way to the nation’s worst turnover margin. Missouri should be able to fire away for 300 yards and several big home runs, and Nevada likely won’t be able to keep up.
Why Nevada might win: The running game is eventually going to work. It’s too good not to. Bowling Green had a little bit of success against Mizzou on the ground, and while the Tiger defensive front has been solid at getting into the backfield with linebacking corps that can keep Colin Kaepernick in place, the Pack should be able to control the clock a little bit if the Pistol offense is finally sharp. Along with the running game, the pass rush hasn’t played up to its potential yet this year. There’s too much talent to not start to blow up at some point, and being home might make all the difference.
Who to watch: What has happened to Kapernick? The junior was supposed to grow into a national presence this season after running for 1,130 yards and 17 touchdowns and throwing for 22 touchdowns last season. He threw seven interceptions as a sophomore, but he has given away four in the first two games so far and has been held to 63 yards rushing without a score so far. The defense played well enough to beat Colorado State last week, but the offense didn’t come through. This week, Kaepernick has to be fantastic and he has to be the best player on the field if the Wolf Pack is going to have a chance.
What will happen: Nevada will play better and will start running the ball like Nevada again, but it won’t be enough to keep up with the monster game from Gabbert. He’ll throw for well over 300 yards and four scores.
CFN Prediction: Missouri 31 … Nevada 20 ... Line: Missouri -7
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Fresno State (1-2) at Cincinnati (3-0),12:00 EST, ESPN Gameplan, Saturday, September 26
Why to watch: With two of its toughest road games now in the win column, Cincinnati is beginning to emerge as the favorite to win the Big East for a second straight season. Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and South Florida will still have something to say about that, but the 14th-ranked Bearcats just picked up the league’s best win of the season, beating Oregon State in Corvallis. Clearing that hurdle in a hostile environment removes the cap on just how far this program might be able to reach in 2009. Fresno State arrives, as usual, without any concerns about taking a step up in weight class. Over the last two weeks, Pat Hill’s kids took Wisconsin into overtime in Madison and went blow-for-blow with Boise State before fading in the final quarter. The Bulldogs would love to turn one of these near-misses into an upset before WAC play dominates the schedule.
Why Fresno State might win: Despite the thorny September schedule, the Bulldogs are among the most potent offenses in the country after three games, combining an explosive ground game with the low-risk passing of Ryan Colburn. RB Ryan Mathews has been sublime between the tackles, leading the country in rushing after piercing a good Boise State defense for 238 yards and three scoring runs of at least 60 yards. He’s good enough to take a game over, especially the way Andrew Jackson and the rest of the offensive line has been blocking.
Why Cincinnati might win: The main reason Fresno State is 1-2 instead of 2-1 is that the defense has had too many breakdowns, particularly in run defense. Brian Kelly and his seasoned offense will have few problems exploiting this group. QB Tony Pike has been performing like a fringe Heisman contender, throwing eight touchdown passes to just two picks and developing quite a rhythm with receivers Mardy Gilyard, DJ Woods, and Armon Binns. Considering Fresno State’s troubles stopping the run, this might be the kind of game where the Bearcats flex their depth at running back by giving more touches to Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey.
Who to watch: Without much attention, first-year Cincinnati defensive coordinator has done a brilliant job with the difficult situation he inherited. Despite beginning the season with 10 new starters, the Bearcats have yet to allow more than 18 points in a game and are No. 5 nationally in turnover margin. Sans any star power, Diaco has gotten help from all over the depth chart. Witness redshirt freshman LB Walter Stewart, for instance. In his first game replacing the injured Curtis Young, he went out and made four tackles and 2.5 sacks in the Oregon State win.
What will happen: Fresno State comes in battle-tested, and should have success running the ball with Mathews and that physical line. Stopping the Bearcats, however, won’t be in the cards for the Bulldogs. Pike is playing at a raised level, and provided DE Chris Carter is kept out of his space, that isn’t about to change. The senior will once again lead the way, fending off the challenge behind a balanced and effective offensive attack.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 38 … Fresno State 20 ... Line: Cincinnati -16.5
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Idaho (2-1) at Northern Illinois (2-1), 3:30 EST, Saturday, September 26, ESPN GamePlan
Why to watch: These are heady times in Moscow after Idaho was able to equal its win total of last year with 34-20 drubbing of San Diego State. This might not be a WAC title contender, but it did a decent job of not getting embarrassed at Washington and it started the season off with a win at New Mexico State. Robb Akey’s team is used to being on the road, but it’ll have a tough fight against a Northern Illinois team that’s playing as well as anyone in the MAC. The Huskies battled hard in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin to make a game of it, and they showed that they’re the real deal with a 28-21 upset at Purdue. This game is about tuning up with a huge MAC West showdown next week against Western Michigan that should set the tone for the rest of the season. Idaho has one more non-conference game hosting Colorado State before going to San Jose State.
Why Idaho might win: The Vandals aren’t beating themselves. This was a problem in past years, and without an offense that’s capable of making a big comeback and one the road in a tough game like this, winning the turnover battle is a must. That could be a problem considering NIU doesn’t give the ball away, either, but Idaho isn’t going to provide many freebies with just two interceptions on the year and no fumbles. Not only have the Vandals not lost a fumble so far; they haven’t put it on the ground.
Why Northern Illinois might win: Idaho doesn’t generate much pressure from the defensive front. The run defense has been excellent, partly because it got to face the non-existent ground attacks of NMSU and SDSU, but the front line doesn’t make things happen in the backfield with just two sacks and ten tackles for loss. If the Northern Illinois offensive line is able to control the game, Idaho doesn’t have a chance. The Huskie passing game is efficient, and the running game is the best in the MAC so far, even after facing two Big Ten run defenses.
Who to watch: NIU sophomore RB Meco Brown is quickly becoming one of the MAC’s newest stars following up a 117-yard day against Western Illinois with a 26-carry, 150-yard, one score day against Purdue showing excellent quickness through the hole and a bounce and burst to the outside that the Boilermakers couldn’t deal with. Brown brings the quickness while junior Chad Spann brings more thump. He ran for 80 yards against Purdue and has scored two rushing touchdowns in each of the first three games.
What will happen: Idaho won’t be the doormat it was over the last few years, but NIU is playing too well right now to blow a game like this at home. The Huskies will have too much offensive balance.
CFN Prediction: Northern Illinois 30 … Idaho 10 ... Line: Northern Illinois -16
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Boise State (3-0) at Bowling Green (1-2), 7:00 EST, Saturday, September 26, ESPN GamePlan
Why to watch: This isn’t going to get too much national attention, at least compared to Boise State’s big wins over Oregon and Fresno State over the first three weeks, but this is a good test and it could be the end of the BCS run if Bowling Green comes up with a gem. The Falcons started out well with a blowout win over Troy and had Missouri on the ropes, but they sputtered and came up with a clunker against Marshall in a 17-10 loss, but they’re better than that. They have the type of high-octane passing game that could keep them in the game for a full sixty minutes, but they’ll have to be perfect against a Boise State team that’s playing as well as it ever has over its tremendous run. The offense is explosive, the special teams have been terrific, and the defense, outside of three big home runs from Fresno State’s Ryan Mathews, has been excellent. This is the second road game in a run of four in five games and five and seven, and it could be the most challenging of the bunch.
Why Boise State might win: Why is Boise State so good? Of course there’s the cool head when adversity strikes and the good play on offense and defense, but the special teams often provide the knockout blow. The Broncos are second in the nation in punting, netting 43.82 yards per boot, and are seventh in kickoff returns with Titus Young leading the way to a team average of over 35 yards per try. On the flip side, Bowling Green is second-to-last in the nation in punt returns averaging a mere 0.5 per attempt and have struggled in the punting game and on kickoff returns.
Why Bowling Green might win: The Broncos have a decent pass rush, but not a great one. Bowling Green’s undoing has been its inability to keep QB Tyler Sheehan upright. The O line has had problems from the start, getting no push for the running game while allowing nine sacks in three games, and while the Broncos should get at least three sacks, they’re not going to pressure and pop Sheehan all game long like Marshall was able to. All Sheehan needs is time and he’ll put up big numbers. He’ll also need a huge game from …
Who to watch: … WR Freddie Barnes. The senior leads the nation in receiving with an All-America caliber start to the season catching 15 passes against Troy, ten against Missouri, and last week, he caught 17 balls against Marshall. However, the Herd let him catch passes but didn’t let him do anything with them. Boise State has to do a little of the same by keeping the yards after the catch to a minimum.
What will happen: Boise State will win, but it will be a fight. Sheehan will get hot just long enough to make this interesting, but Boise State will be Boise State and will pull away in the fourth quarter with one soul-crushing drive and one long home run.
CFN Prediction: Boise State 27 … Bowling Green 17 ... Line: Boise State -17
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 3.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 4, Part 2
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