2009 M-West Fearless Predictions
Week 4 ... Sept. 26 Games
Air Force |
BYU
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Colorado State
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New Mexico
San
Diego State |
TCU
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UNLV
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Utah
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Wyoming
Mountain West Fearless Predictions
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Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3
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Week 4, Part 2 (TCU at
Clemson & More)
Game of the Week
Colorado State (3-0) at BYU (2-1), 6:00 EST, Saturday, September 26
Why to watch: National title talk … gone. National respect and love built up from what was once seen as a program-changing win over Oklahoma … gone. After getting its doors blown off by Florida State in an ugly 54-28 loss, BYU is now seen a slow, unathletic team that had a huge chance to jump right into the BCS Championship race last week and blew it. That doesn’t mean the more attainable, realistic goals of winning the Mountain West and getting to the BCS can’t be reached, and the new step forward starts now against a good Colorado State team that’s on a six-game winning streak. Head coach Steve Fairchild has turned the program around, and while the wins over Colorado, Weber State, and Nevada weren’t dominant, they were wins. This is the Rams’ chance to make a huge change in the perception of the Mountain West pecking order with a big win, while the Cougars will try to reboot their season with its toughest game until the showdown against TCU in late October.
Why Colorado State might win: Turnovers. BYU gives them away, and Colorado State forces them. The Cougars have given away six interceptions and four turnovers, with five turnovers against FSU and four against Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Colorado State hasn’t lost a fumble as has just three interceptions with two of them coming in the opener against the Buffs. The defense has been swarming forcing ten turnovers so far, tying the Rams for third in the country. To win this game, CSU has to be at least +2 in turnover margin, and it should be.
Why BYU might win: The passing game still works. QB Max Hall might give the ball to the other jerseys way too often, but he has still gone over 300 yards in the first three games and has gone over the mark in seven of his last eight games. Colorado State hasn’t faced anyone who can throw, Colorado’s passing game is wildly inefficient and Nevada doesn’t throw, but the pass defense is still allowing 244 yards per game. The secondary has picked off more passes (5) than touchdowns it has allowed (4), but it’ll still give up some big pass plays and will have to show the punch on offense to keep up the pace.
Who to watch: Colorado State punter Pete Kontodiakos has been a find. The freshman is averaging 44 yards per kick and has been a weapon who has helped both sides of the ball. He has bailed the offense out of jams, and he has given the defense good field position, for the most part, in key spots. Colorado State can’t give away easy points on short fields, and Kontodiakos should be able to his part against a woeful BYU punt return game. The Cougars are averaging just 1.5 yards per punt return and 16.13 yards per kickoff return.
What will happen: BYU will find its groove again, but it’ll be in for a fight. The offense will move the ball up and down the field, but three key turnovers will keep Colorado State in the game.
CFN Prediction: BYU 34 … Colorado State 24 ... Line: Colorado State -15
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 3
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San Diego State (1-2) at Air Force (2-1),2:00 EST, Saturday, September 26
Why to watch: The start of the 2009 season has pretty much gone according to plan for Air Force, whipping Nicholls State and New Mexico, while losing a close one at Minnesota. The only drawback to the 37-13 rout in Albuquerque is that it left an injury toll that included QB Tim Jefferson, who’s questionable with an ankle sprain. By holding serve this weekend, the Falcons would be halfway to bowl eligibility for a third consecutive year. After splitting games with UCLA and Southern Utah, San Diego State got a taste of how much rebuilding will be required under Brady Hoke, losing 34-20 at Idaho. While Hoke has had an impact in ways that can’t be measured, it’ll take time before the staff’s efforts are parlayed into tangible results.
Why San Diego State might win: Hoke wants to establish the run, but he’ll have no choice but to lean on Ryan Lindley and the passing game in the immediate future. A second-year starter, he’ll have to be careful when looking for star receiver Vincent Brown since Air Force has yet to allow a touchdown pass this month. Defensive coordinator Rocky Long had success slowing down the Falcons in the past with his 3-3-5 alignment that’s educing big stops out of linebackers Jerry Milling, Miles Burris, and Luke Laolagi.
Why Air Force might win: Whether it’s Jefferson or Connor Dietz under center, the nation’s top-ranked running game is going to move the ball on the ground. The Falcons are relentless, hitting opponents with a wave of diverse backs, including Asher Clark, Jared Tew, Nathan Walker, and Savier Stephens. Air Force hasn’t been held under 261 yards rushing in a game this year. If San Diego State has no running game and the Falcons are playing air-tight pass defense, how are the Aztecs getting into the end zone.
Who to watch: It’s not as if Air Force needs CB Reggie Rembert in the defensive back, but the program is certainly happy to have him back from a two-game suspension. One of the leaders of the team, he made his debut last week, playing some on defense, returning a punt for 30 yards, and two kickoffs for 96 yards.
What will happen: With or without Jefferson, Air Force is running the ball too effectively to get a serious challenge from San Diego State. The Aztecs are a work-in-progress, which will have a difficult time navigating the Falcon secondary and an even harder time preventing long, exhausting drives. Air Force will build an early lead and then play keep-away over the final 30 minutes.
CFN Prediction: Air Force 34 … San Diego State 13 ... Line: Air Force -17
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 2
UNLV (2-1) at Wyoming (1-2), 8:00 EST, Saturday, September 26
Why to watch: There are certain games that define a season, and there are others that set the tone for a program. Games against Wyoming are hardly ever going to carry a ton of weight, but this one does for a UNLV program that finally might be good enough to get to a bowl game. After losing a battle with a good Oregon State team, the Rebels held on in a thriller over Hawaii. But to get to a bowl game, which is what likely needs to happen to keep around head coach Mike Sanford for a sixth year, this is a must win. The Rebels aren’t good enough to be among the Mountain West’s elite, but it can finish fourth or fifth and with a winning record if they can win in Laramie. For Wyoming, Dave Christensen’s start hasn’t been a shocker, losing games against Texas and Colorado that were supposed to be losses, but he needs a decent win. With three road games in the next four coming up, the Cowboys have to take advantage of a winnable home game.
Why UNLV might win: A 24-0 loss to Colorado aside, the Wyoming offense has been better than last year … but not by much. The Cowboys haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in their two games against FBS teams and they’ve struggled mightily to find a passing game that works. UNLV’s defense might not be a rock, but it has a strong pass rush that should get into the backfield early and often against a struggling UW offensive line. Yes, the Rebel pass defense got ripped up last week by Hawaii, but Wyoming doesn’t exactly have the Warrior passing attack.
Why Wyoming might win: The Cowboy offense might not be doing much of anything, but it doesn’t make a slew of big mistakes. UW has only turned it over three times so far, all fumbles, with a premium placed on not giving teams easy points. The UW attack struggles enough as it is without having to make up for errors, and wining the turnover margin battle shouldn’t be a problem.
Who to watch: Wyoming has to figure out what direction it wants to go, and the answer is obvious. While everyone wants to win right now, UW might stick with the best option, and also, the youngest, build-for-the-future option. JUCO transfer Robert Benjamin was supposed to step in and produce right away, but he hasn’t been accurate, and veteran Karsten Sween has proven he can’t play. True freshman Austyn Carta-Samuels hasn’t been good, but he has the best talent and the most upside of all the options. Now the coaching staff is going to hitch the wagon to the potential spread star and hope he can grow into the face of the franchise.
What will happen: Wyoming will score an offensive touchdown. In fact, there will be two offensive scores. It still won’t be enough as the UNLV spread will outplay the Cowboy spread in a surprisingly entertaining game.
CFN Prediction: UNLV 20 … Wyoming 14 ... Line: UNLV -5.5
Must See Rating: (I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell 5 … Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself 1) … 2
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