2009 WAC Fearless Predictions
Week 5 ... Oct. 3 Games
Boise State |
Fresno State |
Hawaii
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Idaho
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Louisiana Tech
Nevada |
New Mexico St |
San Jose
State |
Utah State
WAC Fearless Predictions
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Week 3
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Week 5, Part 2
Game of the Week
Hawaii (2-1) at Louisiana Tech (1-2), 8:00 EST, Wednesday, November 30, ESPN2
Why to watch: All of a sudden, Hawaii is good again. Not BCS game good like a few years ago, but good enough to win games on the road on a regular basis, something the program has struggled with over the years. This is part three of a road trip that’s been relatively successful, beating Washington State and losing to UNLV in a fun shootout, but now that WAC play stars, the Warriors can make a huge statement considering Boise State and Fresno State have to make the trip to Honolulu. Louisiana Tech needs to make a stand, and it needs to make one now. A mega-disappointment so far considering the experience and talent returning, the Bulldogs got a win over Nicholls State, but that didn’t make up for the clunker of a loss to Navy. With three of the next four games away from Ruston, they can’t afford to give away any conference home games.
Why Hawaii might win: Louisiana Tech hasn’t shown enough offense to potentially keep up in any sort of firefight. Hanging up huge numbers against Nicholls State isn’t the same thing as producing against a real defense, and Hawaii can actually hit a little bit. There’s a decent pass rush and a stout front seven that doesn’t allow too many big running plays. Meanwhile, the offense leads the nation in passing and is sixth overall. Hawaii can make a comeback if needed; Louisiana Tech probably can’t.
Why Louisiana Tech might win: The team hasn’t played up to its talent level yet, but now it’s home. The pass rush is far, far better than it showed over the first three games, and the numbers (Tech is 115th in the nation in sacks) are deceiving. Auburn ran on the Bulldogs in the opener, and Navy and Nicholls State only run. The defensive line should get to Hawaii QB Greg Alexander and force him to hurry, while the secondary should be able to come up with a few picks if it doesn’t take too many crazy chances. Hawaii will get its yards, but the opportunities will be there to change the game.
Who to watch: The Hawaii defensive line gets a big boost with the return of star defensive end John Fonoti. The pass rush hasn’t been bad so far, but Fonoti, who returns from a knee problem, adds a major piece to the puzzle to pressure a Louisiana Tech passing game that needs time to operate. Tech QB Ross Jenkins threw for 357 yards and two touchdowns against Nicholls State, and if Alexander and the Hawaii offense start to hum, he’ll have to come up with a nice night in the face of a steady pass rush.
What will happen: Alexander has been on fire. He’s in command of the offense and he’ll push and stretch the Louisiana Tech defense all night long. Jenkins will play well, but not well enough as the Warriors will put up 350+ passing yards and Tech won’t be able to keep up late.
CFN Prediction: Hawaii 34 … Louisiana Tech 30 ... Line: Louisiana Tech -5
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Utah State (1-2) at BYU (3-2),9:00 EST, The Mountain, Friday, October 2
Why to watch: Though separated by just a two-hour drive, this series has never developed into a true rivalry. BYU has made sure of that, winning the last nine and 19 of the last 20. The Cougars made a quick recovery from the 54-28 shellacking at the hands of Florida State two weeks ago, jumping all over Colorado State to remain in the Top 25. They’ve got one more audition before returning to league play and making a run at a Mountain West championship. While it doesn’t show in the standings, rookie head coach Gary Andersen has Utah State playing a more competitive and exciting brand of football. The Aggies didn’t back down to Utah or Texas A&M in the first two weekends, breaking from the ranks of the winless with last Saturday’s 53-34 defeat of Southern Utah.
Why Utah State might win: Don’t laugh, but the Aggie offense is really beginning to attract some attention. BYU, which has long had problems with mobile quarterbacks, is certainly paying attention to Diondre Borel. The junior is off to a terrific start, throwing for more than 300 yards in each of the last two games and accounting for seven touchdowns on the season. He’s getting plenty of support on the ground from Robert Turbin, who averages almost nine yards a carry, and long-ball receiver Stanley Morrison.
Why BYU might win: Sure, Utah State can move the ball, but can it stop anyone? The Aggies have yielded at least 34 points in each game, including last weekend against Southern Utah. That’ll be a big problem on Friday. The Cougars feature a mature attack that does most of its damage with the right arm of senior Max Hall. He’s No. 2 in the league in passing efficiency, throwing for eight touchdowns and nearly 1,200 yards. He’ll be well-protected against an undersized Aggie front, and finally has bruising RB Harvey Unga back in his rear-view mirror.
Who to watch: It’s no secret that TE Dennis Pitta is Hall’s favorite. A proven veteran, who’ll pick up yards after the catch, he leads the Cougars with 21 receptions for 256 yards and a score. The Aggies have a decent set of linebackers and safeties, but containing No. 32 will be one of their toughest challenges of the night.
What will happen: Although Utah State won’t make enough stops on defense to author a big upset, it will put up a better fight than in recent years. Borel will be a handful for the BYU defense. The Cougars, however, won’t face too much resistance when it has the ball, moving freely through the air and pulling away for good shortly after halftime.
CFN Prediction: BYU 44 … Utah State 23 ... Line: BYU -24
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno
Show 1) … 1.5
UNLV (2-2) at Nevada (0-3), 4:05 EST, Saturday, October 3
Why to watch: It’s do-or-die time for two very disappointing teams desperate for something positive. Nevada has had a rough schedule facing Notre Dame, Colorado State, and Missouri, and while it played relatively well against the Tigers, 0-3 wasn’t in the plans. But WAC play starts next week and the Pack should start to rip through the mediocre league, but it has to start taking advantage of the home schedule with this game the second in a run of five home dates in six weeks. UNLV was able to come up with a WAC win holding off Hawaii two weeks ago, but it needed to be better in the Mountain West opener losing at Wyoming. The two Rebel losses (the other coming to Oregon State) were by a total of five points, but that won’t matter much without a win this week. With BYU and Utah up next, the Rebels need to get hot in a hurry.
Why UNLV might win: Nevada’s secondary continues to have problems. Unlike last year, there’s no pass rush whatsoever to give the defensive backs a break, and it hasn’t helped to face Notre Dame’s Jimmy Clausen, Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert, and Colorado State’s Grant Stuckey. The problem this week will be dealing with Ryan Wolfe and the talented Rebel receivers. Last week, Gabbert kept throwing it up and letting his targets make plays, and it worked. This week, the Rebels should be able to dink and dunk to death against the nation’s least efficient pass defense.
Why Nevada might win: The numbers look good, but UNLV won’t be able to handle Nevada’s ground game. It hasn’t taken off yet, but the Pack is way overdue to start running the ball on a more consistent basis. QB Colin Kaepernick hasn’t been his 2008 self when it comes to taking off, but that should change a little more now that the competition is more down to Nevada’s size. UNLV is only giving up 113 rushing yards per game, but that’s partly because it played Hawaii, who doesn’t run, Sacramento State, and Wyoming. Oregon State’s Jacquizz Rodgers tore off 166 yards, and Nevada is hoping for the same production from …
Who to watch: … fifth-year senior Luke Lippincott. The star of the 2007 season with 1,420 yards and 18 total touchdowns, Lippincott tore up his knee early last year. Fortunately, it happened early enough to make a comeback, and now he’ll be featured even more with last year’s rushing star, Vai Taua, out with an elbow injury suffered on special teams. Lippincott ran for 114 yards against Missouri, but he lost a key fumble and has yet to show the same burst he had two years ago. Unless Kaepernick picks up his play, Lippincott has to be special to turn around the Pack season.
What will happen: UNLV isn’t bad, but Nevada’s offense will finally show up. Hawaii was able to control the game against the Rebels with the passing game two weeks ago and almost one, and this week, the Pack will control the game with his ground attack and will pull out the win. Rebel QB Omar Clayton will throw for 300 yards, but Nevada will hold the ball for close to 40 minutes and will run for 250+.
CFN Prediction: Nevada 35 … UNLV 31 ... Line: Nevada -3.5
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 5, Part 2
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