2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 5 ... Oct. 3 Games
Cincinnati
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Connecticut
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Louisville
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Pittsburgh
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Rutgers
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South
Florida |
Syracuse
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West
Virginia
Big East Fearless Predictions
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Week 1 |
Week 2
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Week 3 |
Week 4
Game of the Week
Colorado (1-2) at West Virginia (2-1),7:30 EST, ESPN, Thursday, October 1
Why to watch: After an excruciating loss to Auburn that could have gone the other way, West Virginia used the bye week to clear its head and refocus on the next three-quarters of the season. The Mountaineers came so close to a notable road upset, leading in the fourth quarter, but six turnovers were too tall of a mountain to climb. They’ll be favored to win the next three games, which could create a head of steam before moving into the teeth of the Big East schedule. Colorado’s 24-0 win over Wyoming two weeks ago stopped the bleeding in Boulder, but there’s no indication it’ll last. The Buffs stumbled out of the gate with losses to Colorado State and Toledo, putting an immense amount of pressure on head coach Dan Hawkins to begin fulfilling the hype that preceded his arrival. A Thursday night game will either be a turning point or air out the program’s dirty laundry in front of a national TV audience.
Why Colorado might win: If West Virginia can’t stop coughing up the ball, it’s going to be vulnerable week-in and week-out. The Mountaineers are 116th nationally in turnover margin, already throwing six picks and losing four fumbles. The Buffalo D will enter the game confident after pitching its first shutout in over two years and holding Wyoming to 230 total yards. Blitzing LB B.J. Beatty, in particular, could present problems for an inexperienced West Virginia offensive line. Considering the problems the ‘eers had handling Auburn’s hurry-up passing attack, Colorado is likely to attack through the air with QB Dan Hawkins, top receiver Scotty McKnight, and TE Riar Greer.
Why West Virginia might win: The sporadic nature of the Colorado offense will haunt it in Morgantown. The Buffs lack balance, ranking 106th nationally on the ground, and the speed of the Mountaineer defense will eliminate the big play. West Virginia is solid against the run, especially now that LB Reed Williams and DT Scooter Berry have had time to rest their injuries. If the whole building knows Hawkins is throwing on third-and-long, his pedestrian receivers will struggle to shake CB Brandon Hogan and the rest of the back seven. Despite all the turnovers, QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine have spearheaded an offense that’s still scored at least 30 points each game.
Who to watch: It’s a good thing the West Virginia keeps giving more chances to WR Jock Sanders; he’s as tough to contain on the field as he is away from it. The oft-disciplined slotback has become Brown’s favorite target, catching 29 balls for 309 yards and a score. Very shifty in open space, he’ll be used in a multitude of different ways in order to create mismatches with the Buffalo linebackers.
What will happen: As if winning in Morgantown on a Thursday night isn’t tough enough, Colorado is just not a very good football team right now. Its offense lacks punch and its defense springs too many leaks. West Virginia will take full advantage of the opening, jumping all over the Buffs with a blend of Brown’s passing and Devine’s big-play running. If the Mountaineers can find a handle on the ball, this game will be over shortly after halftime.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 37 … Colorado 17 ... Line: West Virginia -17
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno
Show 1) … 2.5
Pittsburgh (3-1) at Louisville (1-2),8:00 EST, ESPN2, Friday, October 1
Why to watch: With a 31-17 lead toward the end of the third quarter in Raleigh, Pittsburgh appeared headed to a 4-0 start. And then Russell Wilson took over, leading NC State to three unanswered touchdowns and a 38-31 comeback win. It was a crushing blow for a team that was looking to make a statement and had played so well defensively up to this point. With the Big East season about to begin, Dave Wannstedt knows his kids have no time to dwell on the past. Louisville, too, dropped a barometer game on the road, losing at Utah, 30-14. The Cardinals have come close the last two weekends, but with a small margin for error, cannot afford to turn the ball over, like they did in Salt Lake City. Back home for the first time since the opener, the program needs to play well in order to keep the locals interested.
Why Pittsburgh might win: Louisville doesn’t have anyone resembling Wilson, so the Panther D should revert back to its early-season habits. It’ll enjoy a significant edge over a marginal Cardinal line, freeing up linemen Greg Romeus, Jabaal Sheard, and Mick Williams to create pocket pressure. The offense can’t take the blame for Saturday’s loss, continuing to show a nice mix of Bill Stull’s low-risk passing and the running of rookie Dion Lewis. Pitt leads the nation in sacks allowed, a trend the Louisville defense is unlikely to disrupt.
Why Louisville might win: Pitt better get to the quarterback Friday night because its secondary needs all of the support it can get. The two times the Panthers faced a decent passing game in September, they yielded eight touchdown passes and picked off just a single pass. The fate of the Cards rests with QB Justin Burke, who’s been skittish through the air, but has been improving and shows good mobility. If he can exploit that leaky pass defense, with the help of WR Scott Long and TE Cameron Graham, it’ll help open running lanes for Victor Anderson, the team’s best offensive weapon.
Who to watch: Even after Utah’s Matt Asiata went down on Saturday, backup Eddie Wide stepped up to pierce the Louisville defense for 129 yards on only 19 carries. A week earlier, Kentucky had few problems grinding it out on the Cardinals. Pitt has the film of both games. It’s going to feed the hosts a steady diet of Lewis, who’s rushed for 493 yards and seven scores, and is well on his way to being named Big East Rookie of the Year.
What will happen: Despite the 1-2 mark, Louisville has actually played well in spurts in its first three games, struggling to deliver a complete effort. That trend will continue this week. The Cards will have some success through the air, but will fall short, eventually wearing down defensively from the running of Lewis and Ray Graham.
CFN Prediction: Pittsburgh 28 … Louisville 24 ... Line: Pitt -6.5
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno
Show 1) … 2.5
South Florida (4-0) at Syracuse (2-2),12:00 EST, Saturday, ESPN Gameplan, October 3
Why to watch: Almost as difficult as beating Florida State at Doak Campbell last weekend, South Florida must now try to remain focused on a trip to the Carrier Dome. Good luck with that, Coach Leavitt. Beating the ‘Noles, especially without injured QB Matt Grothe, goes down as the biggest moment in school history, and the type of win that could propel a program to new heights. Championship teams, however, know how to handle prosperity and increased media attention, which the Bulls will be looking to do this Saturday. Syracuse is on fire ... by its muted standards. The Orange has won back-to-back for the first time since 1996. It seemed to have a bit of a hangover from the Northwestern upset, needing to wake up after halftime in order to shake free from Maine. Beating a ranked South Florida team would send Doug Marrone’s rebuilding plans into overdrive.
Why South Florida might win: The defense, which was spotty at times in 2008, is playing at a consistently high level so far this year. The Bulls have allowed just 27 points in four games, including last weekend’s smack down of the Seminoles. They’re getting into the backfield, with a combination of DE George Selvie, NT Terrell McClain, and DT Craig Marshall, blowing up plays before they can develop. This is a bad match up for a flimsy Syracuse offensive line that got shoved around in the three weeks leading up to the Maine game.
Why Syracuse might win: The gameplan for the Orange will be simple—stop the run and put the ball in the hands of redshirt freshman QB B.J. Daniels. Hey, there’s no arguments with the early returns, but this is still a young kid, who’s very raw as a passer. Syracuse has been terrific at defending the run, ranking 13th nationally and holding the last three opponents under 100 yards. The Bulls have an average ground game, which will allow the Orange to drop LB Derrell Smith and SS Max Suter back into to coverage to support a very suspect pass defense.
Who to watch: As if South Florida needed more reinforcements up front, strongside DE Jason Pierre-Paul has started to play like the JUCO All-American that was pursued by so many schools. The Big East Defensive Player of the Week, he had four tackles, three tackles for loss, and a forced fumble in last week’s breakthrough win. At 6-6 and 265 pounds, he has tackle strength and the quickness of an end, a daunting combination for the Syracuse blockers.
What will happen: Syracuse is home and confident. South Florida is trying to avoid the inevitable letdown. Yup, this one is going to be tighter than the rosters would indicate. The Orange is not the pushover it was a year ago, and will force the Bulls to beat it through the air. That’s an awful lot of pressure on Daniels, who still prefers to travel by foot. The eventual stumbling block for Syracuse will be that USF defense, which is peaking and has the athletes to contain WR Mike Williams and RB Delone Carter.
CFN Prediction: South Florida 27 … Syracuse 16 ... Line: USF -6
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno
Show 1) … 3
Cincinnati (4-0) at Miami
Univ. (0-4),1:00 EST, Saturday, October 3
Why to watch: The Battle for the Victory Bell, the nation’s longest-running non-conference rivalry, has become little more than another showcase opportunity for No. 10 Cincinnati. The Bearcats wrapped up a fantastic month by holding off Fresno State, 28-20. Now the favorite to repeat as Big East champs, the program might start dreaming of even bigger prizes if it can continue to climb the ladder, like the boss’ son-in-law. On the complete opposite spectrum of football in Ohio rests Miami, which went 0-for-September in Mike Haywood’s debut on the sidelines. The mistake-prone RedHawks have yet to appear at home and have already dug an 0-2 hole in MAC play. With no expectations, Haywood will spend the next two months installing his system and fleshing out which players can truly help the turnaround in 2010 and beyond.
Why Cincinnati might win: The last thing Miami needs to see at this time is Tony Pike, who is piecing together a positively brilliant senior season. Don’t expect a veer off course this week against a RedHawk defense that’s 113th nationally in pass efficiency D, yielding the same number of touchdown passes—11—that Pike has tossed. An upset of this magnitude would require Miami to be at least +2 in turnover margin. That’s not happening. While the Bearcats have turned it over only twice, the RedHawks lead the nation with 16 giveaways.
Why Miami (OH) might win: For the first time all season, the RedHawks will be at Yager Stadium, a welcome sight for the well-traveled team. After going the first two games without a point, the offense has come to life behind the dual-threat ability of freshman QB Zac Dysert and pass-catching of veterans Eugene Harris, Dustin Woods, and Armand Robinson. In last week’s loss to Kent State, Miami piled up 552 yards, most of which came from the legs and arm of Dysert. While Cincinnati has exceeded projections on defense, it has been beaten for almost 400 yards on the ground the last two games.
Who to watch: The Bearcat secondary has done a terrific job through the first leg of the season, boasting a 4:1 ratio of picks to touchdown passes. You’d never know that this unit sent three members to the NFL in the offseason. Stepping up seamlessly for Mike Mickens, Brandon Underwood, and DeAngelo Smith have been Brad Jones, Dominique Battle, and converted receiver Marcus Barnett, who’ve excelled in expanded roles.
What will happen: This is about as big a mismatch in a rivalry game that you’ll see all season. Cincinnati and Miami are headed in opposite directions, a trend that won’t stop now. The Bearcats will pounce early, as they’ve done all season, taking the crowd out of the game and the life out of the RedHawks. With just one more audition until the huge showdown at South Florida, Brian Kelly will get a better look at his running game and get his starters to the sidelines as soon as it’s feasible.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 48 … Miami University 14 ... Line: Cincinnati -29
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno
Show 1) … 1.5