2009 Big 12 Fearless Predictions
Week 5 ... Oct. 3 Games, Part 2
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Texas Tech
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2009 CFN Big 12 Expert Picks & Roundup
Big 12 Fearless Predictions
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Week 5, Part
1
New Mexico (0-4) at Texas Tech (2-2), 3:30 EST, Saturday, October 3
Why to watch: It’s been a rough two weeks for Texas Tech losing a rough battle against Texas before getting torn up by Case Keenum and Houston. It’s been a rough year so far for New Mexico, who has been a complete and utter disaster under new head coach Mike Locksley losing four in a row (with the program on an eight game losing streak going back to last year) with a bottoming out moment coming in last week’s loss to a horrible New Mexico State team. The Lobos have done almost nothing right so far, and any production or anything positive will be a nice step forward with Mountain West play starting up again next week at Wyoming. Texas Tech should get back on track with Kansas State next week before going to Nebraska. This game starts a run of four home dates in the next five for the Red Raiders.
Why New Mexico might win: The only chance the Lobos have of keeping the final score out of the stratosphere is if the defensive line can provide enough pressure on Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts to force several interceptions. Not one, but several. The Lobos have done a decent job of making plays behind the line, and they actually lead all Mountain West teams in tackles for loss so far, but it hasn’t resulted in overall production.
Why Texas Tech might win: New Mexico is second-to-last in America in scoring offense (yay Miami University!), is 118th in total offense, and is 107th in defense. The offensive line has been a disaster and it will have a nightmare of a time dealing with an aggressive Texas Tech defensive front that will hit QB Donovan Porterie early and often. The Red Raiders average more than 200 yards per game than the Lobos and should put the game away with a few scoring drives.
Who to watch: Porterie has had a star-crossed career that’s ending very, very badly. After a few big games as a freshman, he had a nice sophomore year, and then was awful last season throwing five interceptions and no touchdown passes before getting knocked out for the year with a horrible knee injury. He fought back and managed to win back his starting job, but he hasn’t had any luck or any help so far. Over his last nine games, he has just one touchdown pass (coming last week against New Mexico State) and eight interceptions. To have any prayer of making this game interesting, Porterie will have to come up with the game of his life.
What will happen: Texas Tech will be up 21 getting off the bus. This isn’t going to be pretty.
CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 59 … New Mexico 13 ... Line: Texas Tech -35
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 2
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Kent State (2-2) at Baylor (2-1), 7:00 EST, Saturday, October 3
Why to watch: Before the season started, this game looked like it would be a showdown between two of college football’s most dynamic runners, Kent State’s Eugene Jarvis and Baylor’s Robert Griffin. But Jarvis was lost for the year with a kidney injury and Griffin was knocked out for the season last week with a knee injury. Kent State was able to recover enough to beat Miami in an ugly 29-19 win for a 1-0 start to the MAC season, while Baylor didn’t have any issues getting through Northwestern State in a 68-13 win. The Bears have a trip at Oklahoma next week, and if there’s any upside to Griffin’s injury, it happened last week to give the offense a game to tune-up. Kent State gets Bowling Green at home next week.
Why Kent State might win: What’s Baylor going to be like without its signature star? The offense should turn out to be decent, but the defense has had problems against the run so far and the Golden Flashes are coming off their best performance of the year with 173 rushing yards last week against Miami. The Bears can’t help but look ahead to the Sooners, and if Kent State can win the turnover battle, like it did last week forcing five turnovers, there’s a chance this could stay close. However …
Why Baylor might win:… Baylor doesn’t turn the ball over. Of course, Griffin was a major part of that as the careful caretaker of the passing game. Kent State was awful against Miami last week and somehow was able to convert on all the mistakes to get the win despite getting outgained 552 to 250. There’s little scoring punch, no passing game, and not enough production against the run to pull off the road upset if the Bears get up early.
Who to watch: Alright Blake Szymanski, it’s on. The former starting quarterback for the Bears is back in the spotlight with Griffin out, but he’s hurting with a shoulder injury. If he’s banged up, BU has to resort to Nick Florence or go with true freshman Brody Trahan, but the idea will be to get Szyamanski out there, have him start throwing early on to get back in the groove of things, and hope he can be ready for Oklahoma. The senior threw 22 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions in 2007, and he has enough experience to know what he’s doing. Now he has to be better.
What will happen: For one week, Baylor won’t miss Griffin. The Bear defense will stop the Golden Flashes cold on the way to an easy win, and then it’s full-focus time on Oklahoma.
CFN Prediction: Baylor 34 … Kent State 10 ... Line: Baylor -21
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 1.5
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Texas A&M (3-0) at Arkansas (1-2), in Arlington, Texas, 7:30 EST, Saturday, October 3. ESPN2
Why to watch: If this isn’t the most fun game you’ll watch this weekend, and possibly this season, then it’ll be close … guaranteed. Neither team is all that great. They’re both good enough to end up in bowl games and they’re both good enough to knock off a big boy, but they’re fun-bad. Arkansas got shut down and almost shut out by Alabama last week in a reality check of a 35-7 loss, but that’s Alabama; that might be America’s best team. QB Ryan Mallett and the offense are going to chuck it all over the field, and the woeful secondary will give up yards just as quickly. Texas A&M will happily take them with the nation’s No. 1 offense, averaging 574 yards per game, to go along with an aggressive defense that will do whatever it can to get to the quarterback. The Aggies have played one of the softest schedules of any BCS team, facing a miserable New Mexico, Utah State, and UAB, and now they get to see if there’s any reason to get excited about the potential of the Mike Sherman era in year two.
Why Texas A&M might win: The Arkansas secondary hasn’t even been close. The Hogs have a little bit of a pass rush, but not enough of one to bother A&M QB Jerrod Johnson for a full sixty minutes. Arkansas made Georgia’s Joe Cox look like Joe Montana, while Bama’s Greg McElroy had a breakout game last weekend throwing for 291 yards and three scores. The Hogs give up passes short, deep, and in the middle, and A&M can move the ball all three ways. The tremendously efficient Aggie passing game should do whatever it wants to. However …
Why Arkansas might win:… the Aggie defense will finally face someone who can throw a forward pass at a high level. It’s one thing to face a high-powered offense every day in practice, and it’s another deal with Mallett and the way he can stretch a defense both vertically and horizontally. If Utah State’s Diondre Borel could throw for 334 yards, then Mallett should be able to get to 400 with a few flicks of his wrist.
Who to watch: Texas A&M’s Von Miller could end up being the difference maker. Whichever quarterback plays better will almost certainly get the win, and Miler could have something to say in the debate. The nation’s leading pass rusher with eight sacks in three games, he has been an unstoppable force able to change a game at any time. Mallett has a world of talent, but he’s not mobile and was susceptible last week to blitzes and the Bama pass rush, getting sacked three times and completing just 12-of-35 passes for 160 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He’ll have to account for Miller on every play or he’ll end up getting flattened.
What will happen: A&M has yet to prove itself, and it’s not going to have to prepare for a little bit of adversity, but the pass rush will make a huge difference and the solid running game will help take the pressure off Johnson. Expect close to 1,000 yards of combined total offense.
CFN Prediction: Texas A&M 45 … Arkansas 40 ... Line: Arkansas -1
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 4
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Week 5, Part
1
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