2009 Big 12 Fearless Predictions
Week 5 ... Oct. 3 Games
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Colorado |
Iowa St
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Kansas
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Kansas
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Missouri
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Nebraska
South
Baylor |
Oklahoma
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Oklahoma
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Texas
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Texas A&M
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Texas Tech
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2009 CFN Big 12 Expert Picks & Roundup
Big 12 Fearless Predictions
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Week 5, Part 2 (Texas
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Game of the Week
Oklahoma (2-1) at Miami (2-1), 8:00 EST, Saturday, October 3, ABC
Why to watch: Vinny Testaverde is looking to make a national statement, but Jamelle Holieway and the Oklahoma wishbone have been unstoppable so far and … what? It’s not 1986? This didn’t quite have the makings of the special mid-1980s showdown, but it had the potential to be one of the signature games of the season before Miami got its clock cleaned by Virginia Tech in an ugly 31-7 loss. Even with the setback, this has the makings of a big year for the resurgent Hurricanes with excellent athleticism on both sides of the ball and a terrific leader in QB Jacory Harris to build around. A win over Oklahoma would still be big, really big, and it would show that the Canes really can hang with anyone in America. It would also show they can adjust and bounce back through adversity.
Oklahoma has battled back through the Sam Bradford injury to obliterate Idaho State and Tulsa by a combined score of 109-0. While that might not seem like that big a deal, the OU defense has allowed two long BYU drives and that’s been it for the first three games. The Sooners have been in a holding pattern waiting to see if Bradford will play again this year, or even this week, but they have to try to go on one way or another and come up with an impressive win to get back into the national title chase. And yes, they’re still in the national title chase. If they can win this week, and look good doing it, and run the table with wins over Texas, at Kansas, at Nebraska, at Texas Tech, against Oklahoma State, and in the Big 12 title game, yes, they’ll almost certainly be in Pasadena unless there are two unbeaten BCS league teams.
Why Oklahoma might win: If you liked what the Virginia Tech defensive front did to the Miami offensive line, you’ll love what Oklahoma’s front four is about to do. The Cane offensive line got obliterated by the Hokies as Jason Worilds and friends hammered Harris all game long allowing just 59 rushing yards. When Harris got time in the first two games, he ripped apart Florida State and Georgia Tech. When he was under duress against the Hokies, he completed 9-of-25 passes for 150 yards with an interception. Oklahoma’s defensive line is better than Virginia Tech’s, much better, leading the nation in tackles for loss and cranking out 12 sacks in just three games. The Sooners also lead the nation in run defense giving up just 41 yards per game.
Why Miami might win: Of course it’s not this easy, but Miami beat Florida State, Florida State annihilated BYU, and BYU beat Oklahoma. Yeah, sure, the Sooners have been national-title-good over the last two games, but that was against Idaho State and Tulsa. In those two games there were four turnovers, and the offense still has to answer for the pathetic performance against BYU, even without Bradford. BYU was able to throw for 329 yards and two scores even though Max Hall was sacked four times and the OU defense was dominant for long stretches. Miami isn’t going to be able to put up a huge number on the Sooners, but the defense should come up with at least two takeaways, more likely three, and Harris has to have a short memory. There will be times when the OU D tees off on Harris, and there will be several ugly three-and-out drives that fizzle from the get-go, but if he can be patient and get the ball out of his hands in a hurry, something he wasn’t able to do in the rain of Blacksburg last week, the Cane offense will move. He’s a good enough decision maker to keep the Sooner linebackers on their heels with a short to midrange passing game.
Who to watch: Even if Bradford is ready to go, there’s a chance that OU will still stick with Landry Jones under center and ease the Heisman winner back into the fold. Assume Bradford is out and the game is on the arm and the mustache of Jones, who overcame a rough thrown-to-the-wolves performance against BYU to hit Idaho State for three touchdown passes and toss six against Tulsa. He’ll make rookie mistakes, he threw three interceptions in the last two weeks, and he’ll have to prove he can handle himself against the speed of the Miami defense, but he has the running game to fall back on and the two games of target practice to be ready for a game like this. For Miami, the offense gets back a huge piece of the puzzle with the return of Aldarius Johnson, the star receiver who caught three passes for 48 yards against Florida State before missing time with a groin injury. He practiced this week, and according to head coach Randy Shannon, looked great. Harris needs all the weapons he can get, and Johnson is a difference maker.
What will happen: Since losing to USC in the 2005 Orange Bowl, Oklahoma has gone 16-13 in games played outside of the state of Oklahoma, and 29-0 around home. Last week was an aberration. At home, in a game like this, the Cane defense will be flying around all over the place making life tough for Jones, there will be at least three key takeaways, and Harris will go back to being Harris again for just enough scoring drives to get by. It’s not going to be a smooth win for the Canes, but it’ll be a good one.
CFN Prediction: Miami 20 … Oklahoma 16 ... Line: Oklahoma -7.5
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Colorado (1-2) at West Virginia (2-1),7:30 EST, ESPN, Thursday, October 1
Why to watch: After an excruciating loss to Auburn that could have gone the other way, West Virginia used the bye week to clear its head and refocus on the next three-quarters of the season. The Mountaineers came so close to a notable road upset, leading in the fourth quarter, but six turnovers were too tall of a mountain to climb. They’ll be favored to win the next three games, which could create a head of steam before moving into the teeth of the Big East schedule. Colorado’s 24-0 win over Wyoming two weeks ago stopped the bleeding in Boulder, but there’s no indication it’ll last. The Buffs stumbled out of the gate with losses to Colorado State and Toledo, putting an immense amount of pressure on head coach Dan Hawkins to begin fulfilling the hype that preceded his arrival. A Thursday night game will either be a turning point or air out the program’s dirty laundry in front of a national TV audience.
Why Colorado might win: If West Virginia can’t stop coughing up the ball, it’s going to be vulnerable week-in and week-out. The Mountaineers are 116th nationally in turnover margin, already throwing six picks and losing four fumbles. The Buffalo D will enter the game confident after pitching its first shutout in over two years and holding Wyoming to 230 total yards. Blitzing LB B.J. Beatty, in particular, could present problems for an inexperienced West Virginia offensive line. Considering the problems the ‘eers had handling Auburn’s hurry-up passing attack, Colorado is likely to attack through the air with QB Dan Hawkins, top receiver Scotty McKnight, and TE Riar Greer.
Why West Virginia might win: The sporadic nature of the Colorado offense will haunt it in Morgantown. The Buffs lack balance, ranking 106th nationally on the ground, and the speed of the Mountaineer defense will eliminate the big play. West Virginia is solid against the run, especially now that LB Reed Williams and DT Scooter Berry have had time to rest their injuries. If the whole building knows Hawkins is throwing on third-and-long, his pedestrian receivers will struggle to shake CB Brandon Hogan and the rest of the back seven. Despite all the turnovers, QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine have spearheaded an offense that’s still scored at least 30 points each game.
Who to watch: It’s a good thing the West Virginia keeps giving more chances to WR Jock Sanders; he’s as tough to contain on the field as he is away from it. The oft-disciplined slotback has become Brown’s favorite target, catching 29 balls for 309 yards and a score. Very shifty in open space, he’ll be used in a multitude of different ways in order to create mismatches with the Buffalo linebackers.
What will happen: As if winning in Morgantown on a Thursday night isn’t tough enough, Colorado is just not a very good football team right now. Its offense lacks punch and its defense springs too many leaks. West Virginia will take full advantage of the opening, jumping all over the Buffs with a blend of Brown’s passing and Devine’s big-play running. If the Mountaineers can find a handle on the ball, this game will be over shortly after halftime.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 37 … Colorado 17 ... Line: West Virginia -17
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno
Show 1) … 2.5
Kansas State (2-2) vs. Iowa State (3-1), (in Kansas City), 3:00 EST, Saturday, October 3
Why to watch: For two of the Big 12’s lesser teams, this is a must win. There aren’t going to be a lot of chances to pull off a victory, with each team likely to be the underdog in every game the rest of the way, but a win will keep bowl hopes alive while the loser can all but forget about a 13th game. Iowa State, at 3-1 after a dismantling of Army, has a better chance at a bowl with home games against Baylor and Colorado still to be played, while Kansas State would have to win this week and pull off a slew of big upsets to go bowling. However, the Wildcats get four home games in a five week stretch, including a date with Colorado. Each program is trying to build, and each is looking at this game as a chance to avoid the North basement.
Why Kansas State might win: The Wildcat defense has been solid. There’s no pass rush and the front four isn’t getting to the ball carrier behind the line, but the defense has yet to allow more than 186 passing yards or 173 on the ground (both coming from UCLA). In a game between two offensively challenged teams, field position will be a key. One of Iowa State’s biggest strengths is its punting game, but Kansas State has a strong return man in Tysyn Hartman, and a superstar in Brandon Banks, who returns punts along with his kickoff return duties, to negate the Cyclone advantage.
Why Iowa State might win: QB Austen Arnaud will have all day to throw. Mobile enough to avoid the pass rush, he has also been helped by a line that has allowed just two sacks so far. Kansas State has only come up with four sacks and isn’t likely to throw Arnaud off his game. On the other side, the aggressive Iowa State defensive front will pressure KSU QB Carson Coffman for most of the game. This isn’t a Wildcat attack that can produce when harassed.
Who to watch: While Arnaud has been the star of the Cyclone offense, junior Alexander Robinson has been the steadying force. He has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last three games and has been a decent receiver when used with two catches for 49 yards and a score against Army. While he has an issue with a groin problem, he’s expected to play and not be limited. For Kansas State, Banks is the weapon who needs to be used even more in the passing game. The senior returned two kickoff returns for scores last week against Tennessee Tech, and he has caught 19 passes for 223 yards so far. With his speed, quickness, and experience, he has to be a difference maker in some way for the Wildcats to pull off the road upset.
What will happen: Iowa State’s defensive line will control the game from the start. Arnaud and Robinson will be the two best players on the field to get the Cyclones ahead and keep them there.
CFN Prediction: Iowa State 26 … Kansas State 14 ... Line: Iowa State -3
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 5, Part 2 (Texas
A&M vs. Arkansas, and More)
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