2009 Ind & ND Fearless Predictions - Week 5

Previews and Predictions for the Week 5 Independent Games

2009 Independent Fearless Predictions

Week 5 ... Oct. 3 Games

Army | Navy | Notre Dame 

Independent Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week

Air Force (3-1) at Navy (2-2),3:30 EST, CBS College Sports, Saturday, October 3

Why to watch: Air Force and Navy will be hooking up for the 42nd time in the first of three legs that’ll decide the annual Commander-In-Chief's Trophy. The Midshipmen have taken the hardware six years in-a-row, tying a record established by the Falcons between 1997-02. In fact, they’ve won a record 13 straight games over service academies dating back to 2002. Navy has cruised to two wins in Annapolis, including last Saturday’s 38-22 defeat of Western Kentucky. Air Force has spent the last two weekends setting aside a pair of the weaker Mountain West teams, beating New Mexico in Albuquerque and San Diego State at home. The Aztec win wasn’t pretty, but the Falcon defense was able to step up and assist an offense that was missing QB Tim Jefferson. Beyond the obvious bragging rights, a win here brings one of the academies a step closer to six wins and a bowl invite.
Why Air Force might win: Jefferson is expected back from a sprained ankle, but even if he can’t go, the nation’s top-ranked running game will have success on the ground. The Middies had trouble with multi-dimensional Hilltopper QB Kawaun Jakes, which does not bode well for this week’s opponent. The Falcon defense, on the other hand, has been fantastic, allowing just 11 points a game and leading the country in takeaways. Junior linebackers Andre Morris, Jr. and Ken Lamendola are setting the tone for a unit that attacks the ball and is No. 5 nationally in third-down defense.
Why Navy might win: It took almost a month, but the triple-option finally appears to be humming again in Annapolis. After having some execution issues in the first three weeks, the Midshipmen blasted Western Kentucky for 373 rushing yards and four touchdowns. QB Ricky Dobbs had one of his best days with the academy, running for 143 yards and those four scores, and adding 100 yards and a fifth score through the air. If Jefferson is less than 100% and unable to match Dobbs, it could be an uphill battle for the Falcons.
Who to watch: Navy slotback Marcus Curry usually doesn’t touch the ball more than 10 times a game, but when he does, something good often happens. A versatile big-play guy, he’s turned 30 carries into 242 yards and two scores, and three receptions into 114 yards and two more touchdowns. That productive corps of Air Force linebackers will need to know where No. 28 is at all times.
What will happen: If Jefferson was at full-strength, this certainly could be the year that Navy’s dominance over the other academies comes to an end. He’s not, however, even if he plays all 60 minutes. Dobbs, on the other hand, feels great, which will be a problem for an Air Force defense that wasn’t tested much in September. He’ll guide the Midshipmen to a narrow victory in a game that’ll be nip-and-tuck throughout.
CFN Prediction: Navy 26 … Air Force 20 ... Line: Navy -3
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 3

Tulane (1-2) at Army (2-2),12:00 EST, Saturday, October 3

Why to watch: As the service academies go, Army will be on the back page this week, as Air Force and Navy lace it up in Annapolis. Still, every game is a big one for first-year head coach Rich Ellerson, who’s trying to narrow the divide on his two biggest rivals. An up-and-down team in the opening month, the Black Knights will be looking to bounce back from a 31-10 drubbing at the hands of Iowa State. Tulane is coming off its first win of the season. That it came in a track meet with McNeese State matters little to Bob Toledo or his kids. Venturing outside New Orleans for the first time this season, the Green Wave needs to feed off last week and gain some momentum in order to have a prayer of avoiding a seventh losing season in-a-row.
Why Tulane might win: The Green Wave offense showed everyone what it could do when it wasn’t operating in a frenetic, catch-up mode. It was balanced and downright explosive last Saturday, which will become a trend against a beatable Army D. The sparkplug is Andre Anderson, a next-level type back, who erupted for 199 yards and four touchdowns. When he’s rumbling, it opens things up for Joe Kemp, who completed all 10 of his passes to Jeremy Williams for 222 yards and two touchdowns.
Why Army might win: The Green Wave offense may be percolating, but the defense remains in shambles. After yielding almost 500 yards to an FCS opponent, it’s near the bottom of the country in just about every meaningful statistical category. As usual, the Black Knights will attack on the ground with the nation’s ninth-ranked rushing offense. They’ll pound away with an unrelenting ensemble of runners, including Patrick Mealy, Kingsley Ehie, Jameson Carter, and QB Trent Steelman. In three games, Tulane has yet to show any resistance on defense.
Who to watch: Mr. Anderson, meet Mr. Anderson. One of Andre Anderson’s biggest concerns this Saturday will be avoiding Stephen Anderson, Army’s instinctive linebacker and leading tackler. A smart defender, he’s never too far from the ball and rarely out of position, scoring on an 81-yard fumble return when these two schools met last October.
What will happen: Tulane will give up a ton of yards on the ground, but has enough weapons to offset those frequent defensive breakdowns. Anderson is a big time back, and a more confident Kemp will continue to hook up liberally with Williams. In a shootout, the Green Wave’s offensive heroes will help deliver the mild upset on the Hudson.
CFN Prediction: Tulane 31 … Army 30 ... Line: Army -6
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 1.5
 
Washington (2-2) at Notre Dame (3-1),3:30 EST, NBC, Saturday, October 3

Why to watch: So which Washington team will show up in South Bend, the one that rode the back of USC into the Top 25 or the one that just got slapped around by Stanford? Although growing pains were still anticipated by Steve Sarkisian’s young squad, a 20-point loss on The Farm was a rude reminder of just how far it has to go before becoming serious Pac-10 contenders. A second straight loss could mess with the psyche of this team and make that Week 3 upset just a little less memorable. Notre Dame has become the stunt men of the college football world, living dangerously in each of the last three weekends. After losing a heartbreaker to Michigan, the Irish has rebounded with nail-biting, three-point wins over Michigan State and Purdue. On Saturday night in West Lafayette, Jimmy Clausen threw a fourth-down dart to Kyle Rudolph for the game-winner with just 25 seconds left.
Why Washington might win: Opponents of Notre Dame have figured out that it has serious issues defending the pass. The Irish ends aren’t getting penetration and the secondary has allowed seven touchdown passes to inexperienced players over the last three weeks. The Huskies will be looking to capitalize with QB Jake Locker, who needs to bounce back from last week’s poor effort. He’s the catalyst for the Pac-10’s second-ranked passing game, making good use of talented receivers James Johnson, Jermaine Kearse, and D’Andre Goodwin.
Why Notre Dame might win: A visit from Washington may be the best medicine for the banged-up Irish offense. Clausen’s toe is barking and RB Armando Allen has a bum ankle, but everyone will want a crack at a defense that hasn’t had a sack in three weeks and can’t stop the run. Sure, Clausen, Rudolph, and WR Golden Tate will continue to be the focal point of the offense, but Notre Dame might want to feed the backs a little more after seeing USC and Stanford grind out 571 yards rushing on the Huskies. As Allen rested last weekend, backup Robert Hughes ran well, going for 68 yards and a score on 15 carries.
Who to watch: With Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd out for the season, Tate has flourished in a more expanded role. Taking direct snaps out of the backfield on Saturday night, he had nine carries for 55 yards and a touchdown to go along with five receptions for 57 yards. More of the same is expected as the Irish look to maximize the production of its best skill position player.
What will happen: The Notre Dame offense is being held together by medical tape, but as long as Clausen is able to go, they’ll put up points on average defenses. Although Washington figures to play much better than a week ago, it’s not going to get enough from the running game or the run defense to deliver a second big upset in the first half of the season.
CFN Prediction: Notre Dame 31 … Washington 23 ... Line: Notre Dame -13
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 3