2009 M-West Fearless Predictions
Week 5 ... Oct. 3 Games
Air Force |
BYU
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Colorado State
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New Mexico
San
Diego State |
TCU
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UNLV
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Utah
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Wyoming
Mountain West Fearless Predictions
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Week 5, Part 2 (SMU at TCU & More)
Game of the Week
Colorado State (3-1) at Idaho (3-1), 10:30 EST, Saturday, October 3, ESPNU
Why to watch: The two teams are actually good. Idaho was expected to be its typical doormat and was supposed to get off to an awful start with three road games in the first four, but the offense has been far better than it’s been over the last several years, the defense has improved, and things are starting to click after a few ugly seasons under Robb Akey. Beating New Mexico State and San Diego State were nice, but beating Northern Illinois, who beat Purdue and pushed Wisconsin, in DeKalb showed that the Vandals might be the real deal. Meanwhile, Colorado State has been solid with wins over Colorado and Nevada before losing on the road to BYU. While neither team will be a major factor in their respective conference races, they each want to get to a bowl and need a win this week to all but secure eligibility.
Why Colorado State might win: Idaho knows what it is on defense. There isn’t an aggressive pass rush and there aren’t many tackles for loss, but that’s a little bit by design. The defensive front is all about holding up to stop the run, and while that’s fine against most teams, that’s a problem against a Colorado State offense that’s been having a few problems protecting the passer. The Rams like to throw the ball and they shouldn’t have much of a problem pushing the ball deep on a suspect Vandal secondary. So far, Idaho has feasted on turnovers to come up with easy points, but Colorado State doesn’t give it away with just five turnovers so far.
Why Idaho might win: Almost out of nowhere, Idaho went from being miserable throwing the ball to having one of the nation’s most efficient passing attacks. Last year, Idaho finished 97th in the nation in passing efficiency and this year its 32nd and averaging 258 yards per game. The Vandals are consistent and productive on offense getting balance when needed and big plays off of nearly every takeaway. Last year at this time the Vandals were 96th in the nation in turnover margin, and this year they’re 18th.
Who to watch: The biggest key to Idaho’s offensive improvement has been the play of Nathan Enderle, a junior with two years of experience under his belt. It’s all paying off as he’s been steady, accurate, and more careful with the ball. Interceptions were an issue last season, throwing 17 picks, but he has only pitched two this year and is coming off an 18-of-23, 270-yard, three touchdown day against NIU. He has become the leader and playmaker the Vandals have desperately needed.
What will happen: Colorado State has the better team with a speedy receiving corps that should torch the Idaho secondary, but Idaho is finding ways to get the job done. Enderle has been too cool and too calm, and the Vandal D will do just enough to get off the field to pull off the tough home win and get the buzz really rolling.
CFN Prediction: Idaho 31 … Colorado State 24 ... Line: Colorado State -3.5
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 2
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Utah State (1-2) at BYU (3-2),9:00 EST, The Mountain, Friday, October 2
Why to watch: Though separated by just a two-hour drive, this series has never developed into a true rivalry. BYU has made sure of that, winning the last nine and 19 of the last 20. The Cougars made a quick recovery from the 54-28 shellacking at the hands of Florida State two weeks ago, jumping all over Colorado State to remain in the Top 25. They’ve got one more audition before returning to league play and making a run at a Mountain West championship. While it doesn’t show in the standings, rookie head coach Gary Andersen has Utah State playing a more competitive and exciting brand of football. The Aggies didn’t back down to Utah or Texas A&M in the first two weekends, breaking from the ranks of the winless with last Saturday’s 53-34 defeat of Southern Utah.
Why Utah State might win: Don’t laugh, but the Aggie offense is really beginning to attract some attention. BYU, which has long had problems with mobile quarterbacks, is certainly paying attention to Diondre Borel. The junior is off to a terrific start, throwing for more than 300 yards in each of the last two games and accounting for seven touchdowns on the season. He’s getting plenty of support on the ground from Robert Turbin, who averages almost nine yards a carry, and long-ball receiver Stanley Morrison.
Why BYU might win: Sure, Utah State can move the ball, but can it stop anyone? The Aggies have yielded at least 34 points in each game, including last weekend against Southern Utah. That’ll be a big problem on Friday. The Cougars feature a mature attack that does most of its damage with the right arm of senior Max Hall. He’s No. 2 in the league in passing efficiency, throwing for eight touchdowns and nearly 1,200 yards. He’ll be well-protected against an undersized Aggie front, and finally has bruising RB Harvey Unga back in his rear-view mirror.
Who to watch: It’s no secret that TE Dennis Pitta is Hall’s favorite. A proven veteran, who’ll pick up yards after the catch, he leads the Cougars with 21 receptions for 256 yards and a score. The Aggies have a decent set of linebackers and safeties, but containing No. 32 will be one of their toughest challenges of the night.
What will happen: Although Utah State won’t make enough stops on defense to author a big upset, it will put up a better fight than in recent years. Borel will be a handful for the BYU defense. The Cougars, however, won’t face too much resistance when it has the ball, moving freely through the air and pulling away for good shortly after halftime.
CFN Prediction: BYU 44 … Utah State 23 ... Line: BYU -24
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno
Show 1) … 1.5
Air Force (3-1) at Navy (2-2),3:30 EST, CBS College Sports, Saturday, October 3
Why to watch: Air Force and Navy will be hooking up for the 42nd time in the first of three legs that’ll decide the annual Commander-In-Chief's Trophy. The Midshipmen have taken the hardware six years in-a-row, tying a record established by the Falcons between 1997-02. In fact, they’ve won a record 13 straight games over service academies dating back to 2002. Navy has cruised to two wins in Annapolis, including last Saturday’s 38-22 defeat of Western Kentucky. Air Force has spent the last two weekends setting aside a pair of the weaker Mountain West teams, beating New Mexico in Albuquerque and San Diego State at home. The Aztec win wasn’t pretty, but the Falcon defense was able to step up and assist an offense that was missing QB Tim Jefferson. Beyond the obvious bragging rights, a win here brings one of the academies a step closer to six wins and a bowl invite.
Why Air Force might win: Jefferson is expected back from a sprained ankle, but even if he can’t go, the nation’s top-ranked running game will have success on the ground. The Middies had trouble with multi-dimensional Hilltopper QB Kawaun Jakes, which does not bode well for this week’s opponent. The Falcon defense, on the other hand, has been fantastic, allowing just 11 points a game and leading the country in takeaways. Junior linebackers Andre Morris, Jr. and Ken Lamendola are setting the tone for a unit that attacks the ball and is No. 5 nationally in third-down defense.
Why Navy might win: It took almost a month, but the triple-option finally appears to be humming again in Annapolis. After having some execution issues in the first three weeks, the Midshipmen blasted Western Kentucky for 373 rushing yards and four touchdowns. QB Ricky Dobbs had one of his best days with the academy, running for 143 yards and those four scores, and adding 100 yards and a fifth score through the air. If Jefferson is less than 100% and unable to match Dobbs, it could be an uphill battle for the Falcons.
Who to watch: Navy slotback Marcus Curry usually doesn’t touch the ball more than 10 times a game, but when he does, something good often happens. A versatile big-play guy, he’s turned 30 carries into 242 yards and two scores, and three receptions into 114 yards and two more touchdowns. That productive corps of Air Force linebackers will need to know where No. 28 is at all times.
What will happen: If Jefferson was at full-strength, this certainly could be the year that Navy’s dominance over the other academies comes to an end. He’s not, however, even if he plays all 60 minutes. Dobbs, on the other hand, feels great, which will be a problem for an Air Force defense that wasn’t tested much in September. He’ll guide the Midshipmen to a narrow victory in a game that’ll be nip-and-tuck throughout.
CFN Prediction: Navy 26 … Air Force 20 ... Line: Navy -3
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno
Show 1) … 2
New Mexico (0-4) at Texas Tech (2-2), 3:30 EST, Saturday, October 3
Why to watch: It’s been a rough two weeks for Texas Tech losing a rough battle against Texas before getting torn up by Case Keenum and Houston. It’s been a rough year so far for New Mexico, who has been a complete and utter disaster under new head coach Mike Locksley losing four in a row (with the program on an eight game losing streak going back to last year) with a bottoming out moment coming in last week’s loss to a horrible New Mexico State team. The Lobos have done almost nothing right so far, and any production or anything positive will be a nice step forward with Mountain West play starting up again next week at Wyoming. Texas Tech should get back on track with Kansas State next week before going to Nebraska. This game starts a run of four home dates in the next five for the Red Raiders.
Why New Mexico might win: The only chance the Lobos have of keeping the final score out of the stratosphere is if the defensive line can provide enough pressure on Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts to force several interceptions. Not one, but several. The Lobos have done a decent job of making plays behind the line, and they actually lead all Mountain West teams in tackles for loss so far, but it hasn’t resulted in overall production.
Why Texas Tech might win: New Mexico is second-to-last in America in scoring offense (yay Miami University!), is 118th in total offense, and is 107th in defense. The offensive line has been a disaster and it will have a nightmare of a time dealing with an aggressive Texas Tech defensive front that will hit QB Donovan Porterie early and often. The Red Raiders average more than 200 yards per game than the Lobos and should put the game away with a few scoring drives.
Who to watch: Porterie has had a star-crossed career that’s ending very, very badly. After a few big games as a freshman, he had a nice sophomore year, and then was awful last season throwing five interceptions and no touchdown passes before getting knocked out for the year with a horrible knee injury. He fought back and managed to win back his starting job, but he hasn’t had any luck or any help so far. Over his last nine games, he has just one touchdown pass (coming last week against New Mexico State) and eight interceptions. To have any prayer of making this game interesting, Porterie will have to come up with the game of his life.
What will happen: Texas Tech will be up 21 getting off the bus. This isn’t going to be pretty.
CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 59 … New Mexico 13 ... Line: Texas Tech -35
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 2
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Week 5, Part 2 (SMU at TCU & More)
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