2009 Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
Week 5 ... Oct. 3 Games
Arkansas State |
Florida Atlantic
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Florida International
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MTSU
North Texas
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Troy
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UL Lafayette
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UL Monroe |
Western Kentucky
Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
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Week 2
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Week 4
Game of the Week
Florida International (0-3) at ULM (2-2),3:30 EST, Saturday, October 3
Why to watch: It’s homecoming for Louisiana-Monroe, which is looking to poke above .500 this late in the season for the first time in almost two decades. That’s big news for a program picked in the preseason to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt Conference. The Warhawks passed their first test with a Sunshine State team, holding off Florida Atlantic, 27-25. Florida International, on the other hand, is still seeking its first victory of 2009, having lost to Alabama, Rutgers, and Toledo. While the Panthers are clearly making strides under third-year coach Mario Cristobal, it can’t wait much longer to turn the optimism into tangible results, or else the season is going to be lost.
Why Florida International might win: Once the Panthers got away from playing SEC and Big East teams, they were able to showcase some of their offensive playmakers. Behind center, Paul McCall is a veteran hurler, who’s thrown four touchdown passes and can be sneaky quick outside the pocket. In WR T.Y. Hilton, he has access to one of the league’s most exciting gamebreakers, whether he’s catching passes, running the ball, or returning kicks. Other than when Texas Southern visited, Louisiana-Monroe has had problems defending the pass.
Why Louisiana-Monroe might win: Other than Arkansas State, no one in the league was better in September at the combination of running the ball and stopping the run. The Warhawks have veteran linemen, who’ll win the battles in the trenches and make everyone around them better. On offense, that means QB Trey Revell gets more time to spot favorite receiver Darrell McNeal, and the holes for RB Frank Goodin are a little wider. On defense, McCall will have to keep his head on a swivel for DE Aaron Morgan, who already has seven tackles for loss and a Sun Belt-best five sacks.
Who to watch: Louisiana-Monroe FS Greg Smith is as good an open-field tackler as there is in the conference. The most versatile of the Warhawk defensive backs, he has 22 tackles, all but one of which is a solo. Florida International’s inability to run the ball will allow him to spend more time helping the corners contain Hilton.
What will happen: For the first time in a long time, Louisiana-Monroe is playing with confidence and expecting to beat comparable opponents. It’ll show on Saturday afternoon. The Warhawks will continue to get past last year’s tight-game woes, rallying behind the passing of Revell and the running of Goodin for an emotional comeback win in the final quarter.
CFN Prediction: Louisiana-Monroe 28 … Florida International 23 ... Line: Louisiana-Monroe -4
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno
Show 1) … 1
Arkansas State (1-2) at Iowa (4-0), 12:05 EST, Saturday, October 3, ESPN2
Why to watch: Will Iowa’s offense actually score? Will is matter? The Hawkeyes are now on an eight game winning streak going back to last year, but few are jumping on the bandwagon after a tremendous win at Penn State last week. The Hawkeyes are winning, and have a chance for a huge start getting Michigan at home next week after this week’s game, but they have to get something out of an offense that’s been spotty at best. Arkansas State isn’t a layup. QB Corey Leonard and the Red Wolves weren’t miserable in a 38-9 loss to Nebraska, but the killer came last week in a home loss to Troy, which, considering the tough conference road games ahead against ULM, Florida Atlantic, and Middle Tennessee, all but ended the Sun Belt title hopes. ASU has a strong running game, a solid pass rush, and could be just pesky enough to pull off the upset if Iowa isn’t on. If Northern Iowa could come within a blocked field goal of winning in Iowa City, then ASU might be able to pull it off.
Why Arkansas State might win: Iowa throws for a bunch of yards, but they aren’t effective yards. QB Ricky Stanzi hasn’t thrown any touchdown passes in the last two games, and has thrown five picks in the last three, while the running game has been mediocre. Basically, Iowa won’t put a big number up on the board that ASU can’t match if Leonard gets hot. As good as Iowa’s defense has been at times, it can be run on. The Hawkeyes won’t face many backs better than Reggie Arnold this year.
Why Iowa might win: The ASU secondary is having problems. Over the last two weeks, Nebraska’s Zac Lee and Troy’s Levi Brown combined to complete 60-of-81 passes (74%) for 695 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions. While the Huskers and Trojans can throw, it’s not like they’re Texas Tech or Houston. Iowa’s passing game might not be efficient and it might not be doing much so far, but Stanzi should be able to throw for well over 250 yards without much of a problem. Defensively, the Iowa front seven provides enough pressure to force quarterbacks to hurry, and it has shown with nine interceptions so far. Only SMU has picked off more passes.
Who to watch: Iowa linebacker Pat Angerer was under the radar last season even though he made five interceptions with 107 tackles including 12 against Penn State and 16 against Wisconsin. He might finally get the national recognition he deserves after yet another big game against the Nittany Lions making 14 tackles with a key interception and a forced fumble last week in the win. With the way the Red Wolves are going to try to move the ball on the ground with Leonard and Arnold, it’ll be a shock if Angerer doesn’t hit the double-digit mark in tackles again.
What will happen: Iowa’s defense will keep the strong ASU ground game under wraps, but the offense will sputter yet again. Stanzi will get his yards, but this will still be a battle for three quarters.
CFN Prediction: Iowa 31 … Arkansas State 13 ... Line: Iowa -21
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno Show 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Wyoming (2-2) at Florida Atlantic (0-3),4:00 EST, Saturday, October 3
Why to watch: Now that Wyoming is through with its role as a Big 12 whipping boy, it can concentrate on being more competitive in the Mountain West under rookie coach Dave Christensen. The Cowboys followed up lopsided losses to Texas and Colorado with a quality win over UNLV on Saturday, 30-27. The victory also marked the coming-out party of true freshman QB Austyn Carta-Samuels, who threw three touchdown passes and is Christensen’s hand-picked choice to run the spread in Laramie. Florida Atlantic’s season took a turn for the worse this past weekend. Although losing at Nebraska and South Carolina was a part of the plan this fall, dropping the home—and Sun Belt—opener to Louisiana-Monroe was not. Even outgaining the Warhawks was not enough for the Owls, which continue to make mental mistakes and are in danger of letting this season completely slip away.
Why Wyoming might win: Now that Christensen has ditched the platoon at quarterback, Carta-Samuels shows signs of being a playmaker. A good fit for the offense, he’ll improvise outside the pocket and frustrate opposing defenses. His top target, WR David Leonard, has been a very pleasant surprise, catching at least six passes in all four games. The Florida Atlantic defense hasn’t proven to be much of an impediment, getting to the quarterback just three times in three games and ranking near the bottom of the nation in almost every statistical category.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: The Owls, too, awoke from their offensive slumber a week ago, using a nice mix of the pass and the run to pile up almost 500 yards of total offense. At quarterback, they’ll enjoy a huge edge in experience in the form of fourth-year starter Rusty Smith. Even with the suspension of Cortez Gent, he has a pair of capable receivers, TE Jason Hamon and WR Chris Bonner. RB Alfred Morris has run hard all month, posting a career-high 122 yards and a score on 23 carries last Saturday. Wyoming ranks last in the Mountain West in pass defense, which could be the impetus for a big day from Smith.
Who to watch: Despite facing two quality defenses, the Florida Atlantic offensive line has done an exceptional job in pass protection, allowing a mere three sacks. Of course, it does help that Smith knows his way around the pocket. He’ll have to keep his eye on John Fletcher, Wyoming’s best lineman and a possible candidate for the NFL. He already has six tackles for loss and three sacks, and will be a physical nuisance throughout the afternoon.
What will happen: Christensen has Wyoming creeping in the right direction, but a trip to Florida will challenge a young team that rarely wins away from home. Florida Atlantic, its back pressed to the wall, has the edge in experience where it matters most, behind center and on the sidelines. Smith is capable of willing the Owls to their first win, throwing a pair of touchdown passes and preventing the Cowboys from focusing on stopping Morris.
CFN Prediction: Florida Atlantic 28 … Wyoming 20 ... Line: Florida Atlantic -4
Must See Rating: (Kourtney & Khloe Take Miami 5 … The Jay Leno
Show 1) … 2
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