2009 Big 12 Fearless Predictions
Week 6 ... Oct. 10 Games
North
Colorado |
Iowa St
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Kansas
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Kansas
State
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Missouri
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Nebraska
South
Baylor |
Oklahoma
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Oklahoma
State
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Texas
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Texas A&M
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Texas Tech
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2009 CFN Big 12 Expert Picks & Roundup
Big 12 Fearless Predictions
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Week 5
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Week 6, Part 2 (Baylor at OU, CU at Texas, and More)
Game of the Week
Nebraska (3-1) at Missouri (4-0), 9:00 EST, Thursday, October 8, ESPN
Why to watch: The season might be close to half over, but does anyone really know what type of a team Missouri is? This was supposed to be a year of transition and turmoil after losing so many key players off the offense, but the defense has been better, the offense has rocked without losing a beat, and the special teams, in some ways, is among the best in America. It’s been an inconsistent team, getting pushed at home by a bad Bowling Green, and the big wins aren’t that big a deal, blasting an overrated Illinois to start the year and beating Nevada in Reno, and now it’s time to see if the team is for real. There’s a good chance that Missouri is for real and is good enough to win the Big 12 North title for a third straight year, and it still might not matter.
The Tigers might be good, and Nebraska might be a lot better. The Huskers should be 4-0, but they couldn’t turn decent drives against Virginia Tech into touchdowns, settling for five field goals, and the defense allowed two miracle throws to lose. The three wins came against Sun Belt teams, and even though Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Lafayette are considered among the best in their league, you’ll have to forgive a skeptical college football world for its collective yawn. Nebraska has a nice, efficient offense, a strong defense that leads the nation in points allowed, and doesn’t have a major weakness to worry about. But a win in Columbia is a must or else it’s going to be a rough climb to win the Big 12 title.
This might not be Oklahoma vs. Texas, and Kansas is certain to be a factor in the North race, but this is as close to a conference playoff game as it gets so early in the league’s season. Missouri is still the division champion, Nebraska is trying to take the next step forward to becoming Nebraska again, and it should all make for a dramatic and entertaining battle on national TV.
Why Nebraska might win: The front four should get to Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert. The Tigers haven’t faced a pass rush with any teeth, considering Illinois has been miserable and Nevada’s tremendous sack artists of last year have failed to show up yet this season. That will change this week as the offense will get hit with pressure from inside and out as Nebraska will get creative to hurry the young passer. Gabbert has been great on the move and he has proven he can handle himself well in pressure situations, but he hasn’t had to get smacked around on every other play, and the Bo Pelini defense will try to do just that.
Why Missouri might win: Nebraska, welcome to a passing game. The Huskers had one of the nation’s best pass rushes last year, finishing 14th in the nation in sacks, but they finished 89th in the nation in pass defense and 82nd in pass efficiency defense. This year, the secondary has been fine on paper, but it hasn’t faced anyone who can throw a forward pass, and on the two plays the pass defense had to come through against Virginia Tech, it didn’t. To be fair, Hokie QB Tyrod Taylor made two extraordinary plays, but the secondary still has to prove itself. Also to be fair, Florida Atlantic’s Rusty Smith is a good veteran and Arkansas State’s Corey Leonard can play, but the Huskers haven’t faced a passing game like Mizzou’s.
Who to watch: Over the last ten games, Nebraska junior Roy Helu has been among the best backs in America, and you’ve probably never paid much attention to him or even heard of him. He was held to -1 yard in the bowl win over Clemson, but even with that clunker he has rushed for 973 yards and ten touchdowns, and he has caught 26 passes in ten games. He packs a nice punch and is quick enough to make thing happen when he gets into the open. He has run well against teams that aren’t supposed to give up much against the run, tearing off 157 yards against Oklahoma last year and 169 against Virginia Tech this season, and to settle the Husker offense into the rowdy environment, he’ll be the centerpiece of the attack … if he’s healthy. He was sick this week and missed practice time, but he’s expected to be ready to roll.
What will happen: Missouri has more firepower and has the ability to score quicker and from anywhere on the field better than Nebraska can, but the Huskers should be able to power away to keep control of the game, and QB Zac Lee should be ultra-efficient and should keep the chains moving. Missouri will have some impressive moments on offense, but there won’t be enough of them.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 29 … Missouri 24 ... Line: Nebraska -3
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 4.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Oklahoma State (3-1) at Texas A&M (3-1), 12:30 EST, Saturday, October 10
Why to watch: Well this just got a little more interesting. This was supposed to be Oklahoma State’s dream season, but RB Kendall Hunter has been hurt, the offense hasn’t produced anywhere close to what it was supposed to, and now, superstar, All-America WR Dez Bryant is ineligible. More on that in a moment. Going into this week, this could be seen as an elimination game in the Big 12 South race. No one’s expecting Texas A&M to be any sort of a threat to Oklahoma or Texas, but with a high-octane offense, it has a puncher’s chance against just about anyone on the right day. However, four of the next five games are on the road, and while there are winnable home games against Iowa State and Baylor still to play, the Aggies can’t afford to give away any home games if they want to go bowling. Oklahoma State was looking to do more than just get to a bowl; it was thinking that this could be a breakthrough title season. It still could be, but it’s going to be a bit of a fight. The Cowboys have a nice win against Georgia under their belt, and the loss to Houston really doesn’t matter, but they haven’t looked quite right. Considering the way Arkansas bombed away on the Aggies last week, OSU has to explode this week or something might really be wrong.
Why Oklahoma State might win: Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett completed just 17 passes, but they went for 271 yards and four touchdowns last week in the blowout win. The Texas A&M defense hadn’t faced anyone with a pulse before last week, and now it has to face a rested and grumpy OSU offense that should be able to do whatever it wants to. Yeah, OSU hasn’t been the unstoppable juggernaut everyone was thinking it would be from the word go, and yeah, QB Zac Robinson has been up and down, but 420 yards and 39 points per game aren’t bad, and being second in the Big 12, in 12th in the nation, in passing efficiency shows that the wheels haven’t exactly come off. The Aggie secondary can’t handle the OSU receivers, even without Bryant.
Why Texas A&M might win: Case Keenum. The Houston quarterback ripped up the Oklahoma State defense for 366 yards and three touchdowns, and he ran for a score, as he led a high-octane Cougar attack to a stunning win. When push came to shove, the Cowboy secondary failed. A&M might have lost last week to Arkansas, but the passing game still worked. Granted, Jerrod Johnson was throwing in comeback mode, but he should be able to push the ball deep while getting plenty of time to work against a mediocre Cowboy pass rush. On the other side of the ball, Von Miller and the A&M pass rush should get to Robinson a few times to slow down the Cowboy passing game. This is a bigger problem now considering Robinson will be without …
Who to watch: … Bryant, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA, at least for a while. The Cowboys are already deep into the process of making amends after Bryant visited Deion Sanders and lied to the NCAA about it. It’s all silly, it’s all NCAA technical garbage, and it’s all going to affect the OSU passing game, at least for a little while. Now it’s up to untested players like JUCO transfer Dameron Fooks and sophomore Josh Cooper to step up and become stars for the passing game, while a combination of Jeremy Smith, Keith Toston, and Beau Johnson have to keep the running game going with Hunter still out.
What will happen: The loss of Bryant and Hunter hurts, but there’s still plenty of firepower to keep the Oklahoma State offense moving. The key will be Robinson. If he’s effective, relaxed, and efficient, there won’t be any problems. A&M will crank out well over 400 yards, but OSU will win the shootout.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 45 … Texas A&M 27 ... Line: Oklahoma State -8
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Iowa State (3-2) at Kansas (4-0), 12:30 EST, Saturday, October 10
Why to watch: Finally, Kansas will play someone halfway decent … sort of. Iowa State is in trouble after losing last week to Kansas State in heartbreaking fashion, and now there’s only one likely chance to not be an underdog the rest of the way, and that’s when Baylor comes to Ames next week. The Cyclones have beaten the teams they were supposed to, but they lost to Iowa without making a peep and they lost a game they should’ve had in hand last week. This week it will take a special effort to keep up with a Jayhawk offense that has had four games to tune up and get ready for Big 12 play. On a six-game winning streak going back to last year, KU is on a roll, and it even got a bit of a push two weeks ago against Southern Miss just to tighten things up. If the Jayhawks play up to their capabilities, they shouldn’t have a problem this week, or next week against Colorado. And then the fun begins with Oklahoma comes to Lawrence.
Why Iowa State might win: Southern Miss was able to stay alive by spreading the passing game around, stopping the KU running game, and by taking advantage of every opportunity. Iowa State doesn’t have the most consistent of passing attacks, it’s only averaging 172 yards per game, but QB Austen Arnaud is a good veteran who can wing it around if given a shot. He threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns against KU last year in a tough 35-33 loss, and this year, he’s ISU’s only hope. He has to come out dealing from down one and he has to keep the pressure up on the KU corners. There isn’t enough overall firepower from the Cyclone attack to try to play this balanced and straight, but there’s one big problem …
Why Kansas might win: So far, Iowa State hasn’t been able to throw efficiently and has relied solely on the running game. While the Cyclones might be 20th in the nation on the ground, averaging 208 yards per game, it has to deal with a KU run defense that ranked third giving up just 59.25 yards per outing. While the pass rush has a lot to do with that, and Iowa State’s offensive line leads the nation in fewest sacks allowed, it’s going to be tough to establish any sort of balance. KU held Southern Miss star Damion Fletcher to 27 yards, and kept USM to 64 yards of rushing offense. Iowa State will try to run early, but won’t have any success against a stout KU defensive front. It won’t help that …
Who to watch: … top RB Alexander Robinson is less than 100%. The speedy junior has had problems with a groin injury that held him to just 47 yards on four carries against Kansas State, but before that he was on fire with three straight 100 yard games and four scores on the year. Also banged up is Jake Sharp, KU’s leading rusher who started out the year with 227 yards and three touchdowns in the first two games before suffering a calf problem that kept him under wraps over the last two games. He’s expected to be fully healthy and back to his old self, taking some of the pressure off of Todd Reesing and the passing game.
What will happen: Kansas will flex its muscle. Iowa State will get the passing game going just enough to keep things interesting for a little while, but Reesing will throw for well over 300 yards, and Sharp will add 100 on the ground, in the easy win.
CFN Prediction: Kansas 38 … Iowa State 17 ... Line: Kansas -20
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 6, Part 2 (Baylor at OU, CU at Texas, and More)
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