2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 6 ... Oct. 10 Games
Cincinnati
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Connecticut
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Louisville
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Pittsburgh
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Rutgers
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South
Florida |
Syracuse
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West
Virginia
Big East Fearless Predictions
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5
Game of the Week
Connecticut (3-1) at Pittsburgh (4-1),3:30 EST, ESPN, Saturday, October 10
Why to watch: It’ll be weeks before the Big East pecking order begins to untangle, but this Saturday’s game at Heinz Field will shed some light on which schools are capable of setting the pace. Pitt opened the conference portion of the schedule strong, blowing past Louisville, 35-10, on Friday night and bouncing back from a tough loss to NC State. The Panthers have a history of fading around this point under Dave Wannstedt, a trend the school is actively trying to reverse. Connecticut is coming off a well-deserved break that followed an impressive road win at Baylor. The Huskies continue to defy common sense, winning with well-coached players, who don’t have household names and weren’t heavily recruited outside the region. One of those recruits, sophomore QB Cody Endres, grew up outside Pittsburgh and will get the start as Zach Frazer recovers from a knee injury.
Why Connecticut might win: Pittsburgh’s goal of establishing the ground game with Dion Lewis and Ray Graham could hit a roadblock this weekend. The Huskies are No. 8 nationally against the run, holding three of the first four opponents to no more than 61 yards rushing. Connecticut is rock solid in the front seven, rarely missing tackles or allowing backs to squirt into daylight. DE Lindsey Witten, LB Lawrence Wilson, and the tackle combination of Kendall Reyes and Twyon Martin will slow down the Panther rushing attack, forcing QB Bill Stull into more third-and-long situation than he’s faced this fall.
Why Pittsburgh might win: The way you beat the Panthers is through the air, but Connecticut and its 105th-ranked passing game won’t have that luxury. Endres and his receivers don’t frighten anyone, which will allow Pitt to sell out to stop the dynamic backfield duo of Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon, who are both averaging more than 90 yards rushing a game. The Huskies have a good front seven, but the Panthers are a full degree better. Linemen Mick Williams and Greg Romeus are bucking for All-America recognition, and LB Adam Gunn has been a force at the second level of defense.
Who to watch: Once a liability, Stull has become a revelation for the Panther offense, opening the season with 11 touchdown passes and just a single interception. While Jonathan Baldwin remains his big-play guy, on the underneath and intermediate stuff, TE Dorin Dickerson has become a force in the passing game. A former linebacker, who played second-fiddle to Nate Byham a year ago, he’s already pulled down 20 balls for 205 yards and six touchdowns.
What will happen: Pittsburgh and Connecticut are fairly similar programs, who prefer to lean on conservative offenses and stingy defenses. The difference on Saturday is that the Panthers have more options on offense and more talent on defense. They’ll have to scratch and claw for the victory, but they’ll get it behind a defensive front that holds the Husky running game in check.
CFN Prediction: Pittsburgh 24 … Connecticut 17 ... Line:
Pitt -8.5
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 2.5
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West Virginia (3-1) at Syracuse (2-3),12:00 EST, Saturday, October 10
Why to watch: As the Big East race slowly begins to come into focus, West Virginia is back in a familiar place among the contenders. The Mountaineers shook off a difficult loss to Auburn two weeks ago, getting back on track last Thursday with a 35-24 defeat of Colorado in front of a national audience. Provided it can start holding on to the ball, the program doesn’t have many personnel issues on either side of the ball. Syracuse had turnover issues of its own last weekend, giving it away seven times in a 34-20 loss to South Florida that could have been a lot closer than the final score indicated. It snapped a two-game winning streak for the Orange, which is going to have its share of peaks and valleys in Doug Marrone’s first season of a major rebuilding project.
Why West Virginia might win: While RB Noel Devine could have a few more problems than normal navigating an underrated Syracuse defense, QB Jarrett Brown will not. The soft spot of the Orange D has been the secondary, which has allowed 13 touchdown passes in only five games. On turf and indoors, he’ll have multiple opportunities to connect with one of his big-play receivers, Jock Sanders, Alric Arnett, and Bradley Starks. Devine may not rush for 200 yards, like he did a week ago, but he will splice through the defense for a back-breaking burst on at least one occasion. The Mountaineers’ 13th-ranked run defense will neutralize Delone Carter, putting the fate of the Syracuse offense in the hands of QB Greg Paulus.
Why Syracuse might win: The X factor will continue to be turnovers as long as West Virginia treats the ball like a greased pigskin. Ranking 118th in turnover margin, the Mountaineers will keep the Orange in the game by putting the ball on the turf and forcing it into coverage. Even if Carter is not a factor, Syracuse can move the chains by going to the air. West Virginia has been beaten for 592 yards and six touchdown passes over the last two games, creating an opening for Paulus to play pitch-and-catch with WR Mike Williams. Williams has been unstoppable, leading the Big East with 41 catches for 623 yards and five touchdowns.
Who to watch: Paulus might want to find No. 30, LB J.T. Thomas, whenever he drops to throw or leaves the pocket. A prime example of the defensive speed West Virginia harbors, he’ll fly all over the field, making plays in run and pass defense. The junior does a little bit of everything for a defense that asks its linebackers to be versatile.
What will happen: Since Marrone arrived, Syracuse hasn’t been the pushover it was when Greg Robinson was on the sidelines. Still, the gap in talent and speed remains too wide for the Orange to turn a competitive game in the first half into an upset. West Virginia will dial up three plays of at least 50 yards, building some breathing room over the final 30 minutes.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 34 … Syracuse 17 ... Line:
West Virginia -10
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 2
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Texas Southern (1-3) at Rutgers (3-1),3:30 EST, Saturday, October 10
Why to watch: Rutgers returns to work with one final sparring partner before getting back to the Big East portion of the schedule. Since getting exposed in the opener by Cincinnati, the Scarlet Knights have gotten healthy on the likes of Howard, Florida International, and Maryland, but are they much better than a month ago? This week won’t provide many answers, so we’ll have to just wait until Pittsburgh visits Piscataway next Friday night. Texas Southern isn’t just any second-rate opponent. The Tigers are a particularly feeble program, even by FCS and SWAC standards. They’ve already lost by 58 to Louisiana-Monroe and 34 to Texas State in San Marcos last weekend. Their lone win can over the Texas College Steers, which were outscored 219-12 through the first three games.
Why Texas Southern might win: The Tigers’ best bet for staying competitive will be to go up top, a familiar mode of transportation in this offense. Ranked No. 13 nationally in passing offense, Texas Southern is led by dual-threat QB Arvell Nelson and big-play receiver Brian Haith, who’s caught 18 balls in the last two games. It’ll be looking to add to the misery of a Rutgers pass defense that ranks 105th in the country and is susceptible to the long ball and yards after the catch.
Why Rutgers might win: Texas Southern has allowed 110 points in its last two losses to teams that don’t have the Knights’ ground game or big bodies up front. Rutgers will maul the Tigers at the point of attack, allowing beefy backs Joe Martinek and Jourdan Brooks to create mismatches at the second and third levels of defense. Martinek, in particular, has started to put up all-league numbers, rushing for 268 yards and two scores in the last two games. On defense, George Johnson and Jonathan Freeny are a couple of edge rushers, who’ll flush Nelson from the pocket and force him into ill-advised throws.
Who to watch: How will Rutgers handle true freshman QB Tom Savage, who suffered a bad concussion in last month’s game with Florida International? Obviously, the team doctors will make that call, but the Knights would love to get him some action before resuming the Big East slate. If he’s unable to go, they’ll once again turn to Domenic Natale, who’s lacked consistency in all of his appearances.
What will happen: It’s October, and Rutgers is still toying with lower-level opponents? This type of scheduling could come back to haunt the Scarlet Knights later in the month. For now, however, they’ll be able to name their score against an inferior team and get snaps for backups, who’d otherwise only appear on special teams. Not long after halftime, the staff will already have turned its attention to the Pitt game.
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 55 … Texas Southern 0 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 1
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Southern Miss (3-2) at Louisville (1-3),7:30 EST, ESPNU, Saturday, October 10
Why to watch: Two weeks ago, Southern Miss was a fringe BCS buster, with visions of a Conference USA championship. Today? Not so much. The Golden Eagles have lost back-to-back games and are staring at a crossroads in their season. Losing by a touchdown at Kansas was actually a reflection of how far the program had come in a short time under Larry Fedora. Losing at UAB, however, was a turning point, especially since QB Austin Davis suffered a season-ending foot injury on the same night. If ever there was a must-win game for Louisville, this is it. For the sake of the program and the head coach, the Cards need to earn a postseason game, and with trips to Connecticut and Cincinnati in the on-deck circle, they absolutely can’t afford to slip to 1-4. After dropping a heartbreaker to Kentucky in Week 2, losses to Utah and Pittsburgh have become increasingly one-sided.
Why Southern Miss might win: Martevious Young isn’t Davis, but he’s no stranger to the huddle and is still capable of bringing out the best in the Golden Eagle skill position players. After RB Damion Fletcher and WR DeAndre Brown sat out last Thursday’s game, the still is hopeful that both stars will be back on the field. They’ll be facing a Louisville defense that’s yielded more than 30 points in each of the last three games. The Cards will also have to worry about stopping Cordarro Law, Korey Williams, and a Southern Miss pass rush that leads Conference USA in sacks. Louisville, on the other hand, is last in the Big East in sacks allowed.
Why Louisville might win: Whether it’s Justin Burke or Adam Froman behind center Saturday night, the Cardinals will be looking to establish the running game in order to set up the pass. They’ve got a size edge in the trenches, which should help spring Victor Anderson, the team’s best weapon and a genuine game-breaker in the open field. The Southern Miss secondary has been surprisingly vulnerable versus even average passing teams, which will open things up for Louisville receivers Scott Long and Doug Beaumont, who’ve been underutilized up to the this point.
Who to watch: While the Louisville defense hasn’t been all that stellar in the first half of the season, LB Jon Dempsey has been the lone exception. The leader of this group, he trades average size for outstanding instincts, racking up at least nine tackles in every game. From the middle spot, his primary goal will be to contain Fletcher and Tory Harrison, who’ll be leaned upon more than ever before.
What will happen: For the first time in a month, Louisville will have the luxury of facing an opponent it matches up well with on both sides of the ball. It also gets a break by missing Davis and getting a Southern Miss team that’s banged up. The Cardinals will discover that missing spark on offense, riding Anderson’s second 100-yard game of the season to a narrow win.
CFN Prediction: Louisville 28 … Southern Miss 24 ... Line:
Louisville -10.5
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) …
2
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