2009 WAC Fearless Predictions
Week 6 ... Oct. 10 Games
Boise State |
Fresno State |
Hawaii
|
Idaho
|
Louisiana Tech
Nevada |
New Mexico St |
San Jose
State |
Utah State
WAC Fearless Predictions
-
Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3
|
Week 4 |
Week 5
Game of the Week
Louisiana Tech (2-2) at Nevada (1-3), 9:00 EST, Friday, October 10, ESPN
Why to watch: There’s Boise State, and then there’s everyone else in the WAC, and with Fresno State already losing to the Broncos, it’s up to this game to possibly determine who has a shot at the throne. Nevada had a rough 0-3 start with the offense fizzling and the defense struggling, and then came last week’s 63-28 win over UNLV with 773 yards of total offense including 559 rushing yards and seven scores. This is supposed to be when the Pack goes on a big run with five home games in the next seven with the two road games against Utah State and New Mexico State, so if they can hold serve in Reno, they should be able to get to the showdown in Boise unbeaten in conference play. However, Louisiana Tech is also starting to play up to expectations after shutting down and almost shutting out Hawaii in a 27-6 win to go 1-0 in WAC play. A win here would do wonders for the conference start with New Mexico State and a trip to Utah State to follow.
Why Louisiana Tech might win: Louisiana Tech should be at least +2 in the turnover department, and it needs to take advantage of every opportunity. The Pack might have been almost perfect last week, but they committed 15 penalties and lost four fumbles. Dead last in the nation in turnover margin, Nevada has lost ten fumbles and four interceptions, while Tech leads the WAC and is 13th in the country in turnover margin giving it away just four times to go along with nine takeaways.
Why Nevada might win: The Louisiana Tech run defense has been surprisingly mediocre. The line had its best game of the year against Hawaii, but even with the game against the pass-only Warriors on the résumé the Bulldogs are still 105th in the nation in run defense. The linebackers were lost against Auburn and gave up 290 yards and four touchdowns to Navy, and they’re going to have a nightmare of a time against the suddenly hot Nevada ground game. The Pack has way too many weapons for Tech to handle, while the Bulldogs don’t have the firepower to keep up the pace.
Who to watch: All WAC fans know all about Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Luke Lippincott, they’re each 1,000-yard runners, but Mike Ball turned into the star of last week with 184 yards on just 15 carries with five touchdowns. Before the win over UNLV the redshirt freshman had run one time for no yards against Notre Dame, but even with Vai Taua expected back from an elbow injury, Ball should play a role. The 5-10, 225-pounder was an ultra-productive high school runner and track star who’s like the rest of the Pack running backs. He can cut on a dime and he’s fast through the hole.
What will happen: Nevada has way too many rushing weapons for a Tech D that doesn’t have many answers against effective running teams. The Bulldogs will put up some numbers, but they won’t be able to outgun the 400 rushing yards they’ll allow.
CFN Prediction: Nevada 40 … Louisiana Tech 27 ... Line: Nevada -8
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Utah State (1-3) at New Mexico State (2-3),8:00 EST, Saturday, October 10
Why to watch: After picking up its share of moral victories during the first leg of the season, Utah State is hoping October brings the kind of wins that’ll show up in the standings. Even at 1-3, it’s clear that the Aggies are making positive steps under rookie head coach Gary Andersen, playing respectably well in losses to more talented teams from Utah, Texas A&M, and BYU. New Mexico State, too, has improved under its first-year coach, DeWayne Walker, but the strides are a little hazier. The road to stability is going to be a long one in Las Cruces, but the upset of New Mexico two weeks ago was a sign that these Aggies are buying into the new staff’s message as well.
Why Utah State might win: The best unit in the stadium, by far, will be the Aggie offense, which has come a long way since last year. Utah State is averaging almost 30 points and 450 yards a game, getting contributions from both the running and passing game. Versatile Diondre Borel is the catalyst, running for four scores and throwing five touchdown passes to just one pick. He gets plenty of help from his two favorite skill positions, RB Robert Turbin, who’s averaging seven yards a carry, and long ball receiver Stanley Morrison.
Why New Mexico State might win: If the light was ever going to go on for the Aggie offense, now would be the time. Utah State is rather generous on defense, allowing at least 34 points in all four games and ranking 110th at stopping the run. New Mexico State will attack on the ground, the one area of the area that’s shown a degree of consistency. In his first year out of the College of the Sequoias, Seth Smith has been the workhorse, rushing for 468 yards and earning 31 carries in each of the last two games. He’ll get help from QB Jeff Fleming, who’s struggled as a passer, but can make things happen with his feet.
Who to watch: Paul Igboeli is the veteran at linebacker for Utah State, but he’s about to pass the torch to Bobby Wagner. Just a sophomore, he showed glimpses of potential late last year and has taken flight as a full-timer this fall. Undersized, but able to cover large chunks of the field, he has a team-high 44 tackles and three stops behind the line.
What will happen: The only time Utah State was expected to win this fall, it did, blowing by Southern Utah. Now, New Mexico State will provide a stiffer challenge, but the Aggies will still get the offense in gear behind the passing of Borel and the running of Turbin. Until Walker’s kids can do a better job of extending drives and protecting the ball, they’ll struggle to win games.
CFN Prediction: Utah State 35 … New Mexico State 20 ... Line: Utah State -13
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Idaho (4-1) at San Jose State (1-3),8:00 EST, ESPN Gameplan, Saturday, October 10
Why to watch: There’s something brewing in Moscow, and it has absolutely nothing to do with Putin or politics. Under Robb Akey, Idaho is off to its best start in 15 years, opening 4-1 and creeping surprisingly close to bowl eligibility. Not only are the Vandals 1-0 in the WAC, but they’ve also beaten a MAC team on the road and a pair of Mountain West opponents at home. This program is liable to become a storyline over the next two months. After getting roughed up by USC, Utah, and Stanford in September, San Jose State finished the month by winning for the first time. However, it was a 19-9 snoozer over Cal Poly, so no one knows for sure which direction the Spartans are about to take.
Why Idaho might win: After starting slowly, the offense has begun to hum, scoring more than 30 points in each of the last three games. The Vandals are getting contributions from veteran QB Nathan Enderle, who’s thrown three touchdown passes in each of the last two games, and former Washington State RB DeMaundray Woolridge. Enderle’s quartet of capable receivers, including Max Komar and Eric Greenwood, is going to be a problem for a Spartan secondary still adjusting to the loss of two all-league cornerbacks.
Why San Jose State might win: If there’s one thing keeping Idaho from elevating even higher, it’s been the play of the defense. Since silencing New Mexico State in the opener, the Vandals have slipped considerably, especially at defending the pass and generating backfield pressure. QB Jordan La Secla must build on his first two-touchdown game, exploiting a bad Idaho secondary, with the help of receivers Kevin Jurovich and Marquis Avery. The running game got a jolt from JUCO transfer Lamon Muldrow, who went for 184 yards on just 20 carries in the Cal Poly game.
Who to watch: While most of the country doesn’t know Mike Iupati, the NFL scouts in attendance most definitely will. One of the top senior guard prospects in the nation, he’s been one of the more anonymous cogs in the improving Idaho offense. At 6-6 and 325 pounds, he has the raw power to blow linemen off the ball and allow the playmakers to operate with space.
What will happen: Idaho is a confident football team, which happens when you start 4-1 and win two on the road. A trip to San Jose is not going to unnerve these Vandals. They’ll continue to be led by the play of the offense, converting on third down and getting a couple of timely touchdown passes from Enderle for a mild upset.
CFN Prediction: Idaho 27 … San Jose State 21 ... Line: San Jose State -4
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Fresno State (1-3) at Hawaii (2-2), 11:05 EST, Saturday, October 10, ESPN GamePlan
Why to watch: It’s condition critical time for Fresno State. The Bulldogs played well against Wisconsin, taking the game to two overtimes … and lost. The Bulldogs ran over Boise State and held on to the ball for almost three quarters against Cincinnati … and lost. This is a good team that has come really close to having a big season, but it’s not winning. However, FSU should be favored over the next five games before a pecking-order showdown at Nevada. Meanwhile, Hawaii’s season took an ugly turn with a sputtering, ugly 27-6 loss at Louisiana Tech to not only go 0-1 in WAC play, but the offense also lost its star with QB Greg Alexander getting knocked out for the year with a knee injury. Considering Idaho is playing really well, and Hawaii has to make a long trip to Moscow next week before facing Boise State and Nevada, a loss this week might mean an 0-5 WAC start and the end to any bowl hopes.
Why Fresno State might win: Besides not having to deal with Alexander on defense, the Fresno State offense should be able to rumble at will. The Hawaii run defense has been awful allowing 183 yards per game while not making enough plays in the backfield to make up for the problems. The Bulldogs are third in the nation in rushing led by Ryan Mathews, who’s currently second in the nation in rushing averaging 148 yards per game with five touchdowns. He should run amok.
Why Hawaii might win: The one thing a new starting quarterback needs is time, and the Warrior passers will get it. The Hawaii O line is among the worst in the nation in pass protection, but that’s partly because Alexander held on to the ball a bit too long. Fresno State doesn’t generate any pressure from its defensive front, coming up with just three sacks all year. The lack of plays in the backfield is part of the reason why the defense doesn’t come up with that many big plays. Fresno State is 112th in the nation in turnover margin.
Who to watch: Will it be Bryant Moniz or Shane Austin under center for the Warriors? It appears to be Moniz early on after he stepped in last week and completed just 5-of-11 passes for 109 yards. Not even a thought in the mix after coming in from Fresno City College, the former walk-on has worked his way up the depth chart and brings a bit more athleticism than Alexander. Eventually, Brent Rausch should be back in the mix after suffering a broken pinkie, but for now, it’s Austin who’ll also challenge for playing time. The 5-11, 200-pounder is smart and has a live arm.
What will happen: Hawaii’s a totally different team at home, but without Alexander and with all the problems the defense will have with the Fresno State running game, the Bulldogs will win in a shootout.
CFN Prediction: Fresno State 38 … Hawaii 28 ... Line: Fresno State -9.5
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … X
-Free Expert Football Predictions
|