2009 Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
Week 6 ... Oct. 10 Games
Arkansas State |
Florida Atlantic
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Florida International
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MTSU
North Texas
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Troy
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UL Lafayette
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UL Monroe |
Western Kentucky
Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
Middle Tennessee (3-1) at Troy (2-2), 8:00 EST, Tuesday, October, 6.
ESPN2
Why to watch: Troy has been the king of the Sun Belt, and Middle Tennessee has been extremely close. The Blue Raiders had the title in the bag in 2006, but a late collapse to the Trojans in a 21-20 ruined the dream of finally getting over the hump. This year, MTSU has been terrific on a three-game winning streak highlighted by road wins over Maryland and North Texas, and it gets a lot easier after this with five home games in the next six. For Troy, it was a rocky start, getting blasted by a mediocre Bowling Green team before getting steamrolled over by Florida, and then came nice wins over UAB and Arkansas State to get back on track. With three Sun Belt home games in the next four, now is the time to make a big statement and a chance to take control of the conference race. This will likely be the toughest game left on the schedule outside of a mid-November trip to Arkansas.
Why Middle Tennessee might win: The Blue Raiders aren’t making mistakes and the defense is forcing them. With 13 takeaways, helped by a defensive front that’s getting into the backfield on a regular basis, the Blue Raiders have been great at taking control of the game with the big play, while Troy has been mediocre in the turnover margin. On the road in a huge game like this, keeping the errors to a minimum is a must, while having an efficient day from QB Dwight Dasher is also important. Troy’s once-vaunted defense is having a hard time against effective passers, and while Dasher hasn’t always been on, he’s been great at moving the offense.
Why Troy might win: The Middle Tennessee offensive line has struggled in pass protection and the offense won’t get a key weapon back. Speedy RB Phillip Tanner is out with a knee injury suffered a few weeks ago, and while D.D. Kyles was fine against North Texas, running for 62 yards, he’s not Tanner. Several sacks have come because the mobile Dasher tried to string plays out and got nailed, but the line hasn’t always provided a lot of help. Troy’s pass rush hasn’t kicked in yet, but it’s overdue to produce big.
Who to watch: Dasher has been good, but Levi Brown has been better. The Troy senior didn’t play in last year’s win over the Blue Raiders, but he took over the starting job at midseason and finished with 15 touchdown passes and three interceptions. He has thrown four picks this year, but in the last two games he has been unbelievable throwing for 413 yards and two scores against UAB and 355 yards and two touchdowns against Arkansas State. He has to be perfect, because Dasher will be looking to come up with a Player of the Year type of performance. He has thrown five picks so far, but he has also thrown for 200 yards or more in each of the four games and has run for 251 yards and three scores. He has been the steady playmaker the program has been waiting for.
What will happen: Middle Tennessee has been playing better than Troy, but the Trojan defense has the linebackers in Bear Woods and Boris Lee to keep Dasher’s running in check, while the Trojan offense will be more varied and balanced. Dasher will have a big day, but he won’t be able to carry the team by himself.
CFN Prediction: Troy 31 … Middle Tennessee 23 ... Line: Troy -6.5
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 3
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Florida International (0-4) at Western Kentucky (0-4),7:00 EST, Saturday, October 10
Why to watch: There are eight winless teams left in the country. That number is sure to shrink by at least one by Saturday night. Unless NCAA rules change between now and then, either Florida International or Western Kentucky is assured of winning for the first time in 2009. The Panthers have come close the last three weekends, but were unable to get over the hump in losses to Rutgers, Toledo, and Louisiana-Monroe. They’re looking for that first complete game that’ll produce their first victory. While the records are the same, the Hilltoppers haven’t been quite as competitive, particularly in blowout losses to Tennessee and Central Arkansas. Playing its maiden game as a member of the Sun Belt Conference, Western Kentucky has a chance to get off to a fast start in its new league.
Why Florida International might win: The Panthers have enough offensive playmakers, especially in the passing game, to keep the Western Kentucky defense reeling. The Hilltoppers are giving up 500 yards a game and have a league-worst pass defense that’s allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 75% of their passes. Paul McCall is a steady veteran quarterback, who’ll make good use of T.Y. Hilton, one of the most underrated receivers in the country. A big-play guy on offense and special teams, he’s scored four touchdowns running routes and one on a kickoff.
Why Western Kentucky might win: The Hilltopper defense is bad. At least statistically, Florida International’s is worse. The Panthers have yielded 38 points and over 500 yards a game. This could be the impetus for Western Kentucky to wake up and start moving the ball with more consistency. Redshirt freshman Kawaun Jakes provided a spark in his first game with Navy, going 22-of-28 for 276 yards and the school’s first two touchdown passes of the season. He took a particular liking to fellow freshman TE Jack Doyle, a big target who caught six of his passes.
Who to watch: Florida International sorely needs more from the running game than it’s currently getting, a problem that can be traced to the play of the backs and the line. Somehow, the Panthers need to find a way to spring Darriet Perry the way they did toward the end of 2008. Through the first games, he’s been held to less than three yards a carry.
What will happen: While neither team plays much defense, Florida International has a little more pop on offense, which will be the difference in Bowling Green. Hilton will show why he’s the premier player on the field, changing the tempo of the game with at least one explosion of more than 50 yards.
CFN Prediction: Florida International 30 … Western Kentucky 23 ... Line: Florida International -3
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 1
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North Texas (1-3) at Louisiana-Lafayette (2-2),7:00 EST, ESPN Gameplan, Saturday, October 10
Why to watch: Louisiana-Lafayette will be looking to get off to a fast start in Sun Belt play when it hosts North Texas on Saturday night. One of just three league members yet to play a conference game, the Ragin’ Cajuns have spent the past two weeks picking up big paychecks and big beatings courtesy of Nebraska and LSU. Prior to that, however, they did upset Kansas State, something head coach Ricky Bustle can point to when times get tough. North Texas, too, spent much of September becoming battle-tested against stronger competition and notching one unexpected win. The Mean Green defeated Ball State on the road in the opener before dropping games to Middle Tennessee State, Alabama, and Ohio in a double-overtime heartbreaker.
Why North Texas might win: Compared to a year ago, this is an improved team in just about all phases. The Mean Green is finally mixing in some run to go along with the passing of Riley Dodge, getting contributions on the ground from Cam Montgomery and Lance Dunbar. The defense, while no competition for the likes of ‘Bama, held up very well in its tests with opponents from the MAC. North Texas has been especially stingy against the pass, holding Ball State and Ohio to an average of just 150 yards through the air. Linebackers Brandon Akpunku and Tobe Nwigwe will generate the pressure from the second level.
Why Louisiana-Lafayette might win: While the offense locates its groove behind QB Chris Masson and RB Undre Sails, the Ragin’ Cajuns will be fueled by the play of the defense. Forget the game with Nebraska, which was not indicative of the team’s potential or talent. Prior to that shellacking, Louisiana-Lafayette held LSU to just 330 total yards and Kansas State to no offensive points in the first 45 minutes. The defense, led by linebackers Antwyne Zanders and Daylon McCoy, is fast and opportunistic, already picking off five passes. That’s a concern for North Texas, which is among the nation’s worst with 11 turnovers.
Who to watch: Louisiana-Lafayette needs to get the offense out of neutral after stalling repeatedly in all but the visit from Southern. One of its biggest strengths will be at tight end, where Ladarius Green and Luke Aubrey lead the team in receptions. A couple of good athletes and basically well-sized wide receivers, they’ll have their hands full trying to shake free from Akpunku and Nwigwe.
What will happen: The talent and the trends point toward Louisiana-Lafayette making a rare appearance over the .500 mark this late in the season. While the Mean Green has lost 12 league games in a row, the Ragin’ Cajuns have played very well in Lafayette. ULL will force North Texas into three turnovers, giving Masson the short field he needs to operate and engineer a victory.
CFN Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette 27 … North Texas 16 ... Line: Louisiana-Lafayette -6
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 1
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