2009 Ind & ND Fearless Predictions - Week 6

Previews and Predictions for the Week 6 Independent Games

2009 Independent Fearless Predictions

Week 6 ... Oct. 10 Games

Army | Navy | Notre Dame 

Independent Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week

Vanderbilt (2-3) at Army (2-3), 12:00 EST, Saturday, October 10

Why to watch: If Vanderbilt has any hope of going to a bowl for a second year in a row, this is a game it must win, and it must win big. The Commodores beat Western Carolina to start the season and beat a bad Rice team without a problem, but the offense has only managed a total of 19 points in SEC play and can’t get the passing game to work. They won’t be the favorites in any game the rest of the year and will have to pull out a few upsets with its defense and special teams, but before facing Georgia next week, the offense has to use this game to find something that works. Army started out the year looking like a possible candidate for a big turnaround with a 2-1 start with wins over Eastern Michigan and Ball State, but it got shoved around by Iowa State and lost a heartbreaker at home to a bad Tulane team. There are still winnable games on the schedule against VMI and North Texas later in the season, but this would qualify as the program’s biggest win in a long time.
Why Vanderbilt might win: There are one dimensional teams, and then there’s Army. The Rich Ellerson-coached team is supposed to be balanced and efficient throwing the ball, but it hasn’t happened yet; the right players aren’t in place, especially in the receiving corps. Vanderbilt’s defense hasn’t been great against the run, but it’s been excellent at making plays behind the line and should be able to stop the Army ground game before it starts. If Army throws for more than 30 yards it might be a shock considering the Commodores have the nation’s third best pass defense and the Knights are dead last in the country in passing, averaging 68.2 yards per game. Army might be 119th in the nation in passing efficiency …
Why Army might win: … but Vanderbilt is 120th, dead last in America. The Knights don’t have to worry about a Commodore passing game and can send everyone in the defensive backfield up to the line to stop the run. Army hasn’t faced anyone who can move the ball, and Vanderbilt qualifies in that category with no firepower and no deep passing game to worry about. It’s not likely that the Commodores will ever get up by enough to force Trent Steelman to start throwing the ball to get back into the game; Army shouldn’t have to get out of its normal offense. Vandy can’t punt making life much easier for a Army offense that can’t afford to start in poor field position.
Who to watch: With top running back Zac Stacy struggling through an ankle injury, Vanderbilt has turned to freshman Warren Norman to handle more of the workload. The 5-10, 188-pounder is a tough pounder for his size who can also tear off big runs in the open field. He has stepped up when needed for the Commodore offense starting out with 105 yards in the opener against Western Carolina and carried the attack with 119 yards on just 11 carries against Rice and running for 86 yards against Ole Miss. He can catch and he’s the team’s best kickoff return option, and he’ll continue to be used in a variety of ways.
What will happen: The two teams are almost the same with the exact same strengths and weaknesses, but Vanderbilt is better in all phases. If you like running this will be for you as the two teams might combine for fewer than 100 yards in the air.
CFN Prediction: Vanderbilt 30 … Army 17 ... Line: Vanderbilt -10.5
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 2
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Navy (3-2) at Rice (0-5),3:30 EST, Saturday, October 10

Why to watch: Although not without some tense moments, Navy took its first big step toward a seventh straight Commander-In-Chief's Trophy, holding off Air Force in Annapolis, 16-13. The Middies needed an extra session and a Joe Buckley field goal in order to prevail and nudge above the .500 mark for the first time this year. Now halfway to bowl eligibility, the Academy shouldn’t have many problems qualifying for a seventh postseason game in-a-row. While Rice has played marginally better as the season has progressed, the results have been the same. The Owls are one of just eight winless programs left in the country, a frustrating departure from last year’s breakthrough 10-win season and first bowl victory in over half a century.
Why Navy might win: Yeah, the triple-option and nation’s No. 8 ground game is the calling card, but that shouldn’t discount how well the Middie defense has been playing. It just got done holding Air Force over 100 yards below its season rushing yards, and is allowing just 21 points a game. Ross Pospisil, Tony Haberer, and Tyler Simmons are at the epicenter of the unit, a trio of veteran linebackers that rarely misses tackles. In yet another stark indication that it’s no longer 2008 in Houston, Rice has stumbled all season on offense, ranking last in Conference USA at 17 points a game.
Why Rice might win: While it doesn’t jump right out at you, the Owl defense has begun to make strides since getting ambushed by Texas Tech three weeks ago. Since then, Rice has held up relatively, capped by last week’s effort, holding high-powered Tulsa to only 27 points. With DE Scott Solomon providing a push up front and S Andrew Sendejo hitting anything that moves, the group has a chance to stall a Navy attack that’s been spotty executing the option.
Who to watch: It took a few weeks, but Navy QB Ricky Dobbs has started to get comfortable as the point guard of the offense. Over the last two games, he’s rushed for 235 yards and five scores, while becoming more efficient in his limited passing attempts. The Midshipmen need him to anchor the offense over the final two months of the season.
What will happen: While the Rice defense has made enough progress to keep the game competitive past halftime, the necrotic offense won’t be able to deliver the first win of the season. Navy will wear out the Owls on the ground, rushing for more than 200 yards and building a cushion by the end of the third quarter.
CFN Prediction: Navy 31 … Rice 17 ... Line: Navy -13
Must See Rating: (A Serious Man 5 … Couples Retreat 1) … 1
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