2009 Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
Week 7 ... Oct. 17 Games
Arkansas State |
Florida Atlantic
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Florida International
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MTSU
North Texas
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Troy
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UL Lafayette
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UL Monroe |
Western Kentucky
Sun Belt Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
Arkansas State (1-3) at ULM (3-2),
8:00 EST,
Tuesday, October 13, ESPN2
Why to watch: If ULM really wants to be in the Sun Belt title discussion, it’s time to prove it. The Warhawks came up with a huge win at Florida Atlantic two weeks ago, and last week won a shootout over FIU to go 2-0 in conference play. With three road games ahead, including a date at Troy, and with four on the road in the next five, ULM can’t afford to blow the chance at a key home win. ASU has been better than the 1-3 record with a tough loss to Troy and a three-point loss at Iowa. However, the only win came against Mississippi Valley State, and now it’s time to see if the team can actually play. A loss here for the Red Wolves would all but end any Sun Belt title chances.
Why Arkansas State might win: Corey Leonard can throw a little bit. Arkansas State would ideally like to run the ball, but the ULM linebacking corps is strong enough to keep the Red Wolves ground game under wraps. Leonard, the ASU veteran quarterback, has thrown for more than 200 yards in each of his last two games with a touchdown pass against Troy and two scoring passes against Iowa. He’s the veteran in the game who has to use his experience to be the difference maker.
Why ULM might win: ULM has the Sun Belt’s leading offense, and there have been some good games on the schedule to test it. The numbers got fat against Texas Southern and FIU, but the attack was decent and balanced against Texas and Arizona State, the Pac 10’s leading defense, and the running game has been stellar at times with 345 yards and five scores against TSU and 304 yards and four touchdowns against FIU. The ULM offensive line has an advantage over the ASU defensive front.
Who to watch: ULM RB Frank Goodin had a nice first season as the starter, but he finished with 783 yards and five touchdowns and was held to 33 yards by ASU. More was expected. This year, he has 461 yards and eight scores in just five games, and he’s coming off a 19-carry, 163-yard, three score day against FIU. He’s ultra-quick, a nice receiver, and he’s becoming more and more reliable as the main man for the offense. It’ll be up to him to keep the chains moving and the time of possession in ULM’s favor.
What will happen: ASU finally gets a real win. Leonard will do a little bit of everything to keep the Red Wolves moving late. It’ll be a good, tight battle until the end, and experience in the backfield will win out.
CFN Prediction: Arkansas State 35 … ULM 31 ... Line: ULM -3
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Mississippi State (2-4) at Middle Tennessee (3-2), 12:30 EST, Saturday, October 17, ESPNU
Why to watch: Mississippi State has been decent, at least compared to the last few years, but it can’t seem to pull off wins, while Middle Tennessee has been mediocre, but it’s 3-2. The Blue Raiders are coming off a rough 31-7 loss at Troy that all but ended their Sun Belt season before it could really begin, but they have a chance to go on a nice run with five of the next six games at home. Beating a below-average SEC team is hardly out of the question, considering MTSU is used to playing BCS teams tough and has a win over Maryland this year. Meanwhile, The Bulldogs are trying to get back on track after losing three straight home games. An inability punch it in from the one cost them the LSU game, and while they played well against Georgia Tech and Houston, they lost. There’s still time to get to a bowl game with no mistakes against teams like Kentucky and Ole Miss (yeah, it’s okay to throw the Rebels under the bus), but this is a must win for any realistic hope of getting a 13th game.
Why Mississippi State might win: MSU and Anthony Dixon should be able to run all game long. Troy ripped apart the Blue Raider defense for 264 yards last week, while Clemson ran for 202 yards in week one. Not coincidentally, those are MTSU’s two losses, while the team is 3-0 when holding teams under 200. The Bulldog offensive line is playing well and the running game is getting production from the quarterbacks as well as Dixon, who’s averaging 112 yards per game with four straight 100-yard games. MSU runs for 226 yards per game and was only under the 200-yard mark twice, in losses to Auburn and LSU. Middle Tennessee isn’t Auburn or LSU.
Why Middle Tennessee might win: Turnovers. Mississippi State is the better team, but it could play down to the competition by giving the ball away. The Bulldogs have lost ten fumbles and eight interceptions, with three picks and a fumble proving to be costly against LSU and four fumbles and a pick a big problem against Georgia Tech. Middle Tennessee’s five interceptions came in two games, both against the ACC teams (Clemson and Maryland), and there have only been three fumbles. The Blue Raider D is great at going after the ball with 12 forced fumbles.
Who to watch: MSU QB Chris Relf was suspended for a game and isn’t expected to be a major part of this week’s game. Whether he’s in the mix of not, Tyson Lee will likely take on the biggest role in the offense even though he has thrown six interceptions in the last three games. He ran for 68 yards against Houston, but he only completed 15-of-23 passes for 160 yards with the two picks, and while he’s a multi-talented veteran who has seen plenty of action, he’s not necessarily a winner. He was able to beat Middle Tennessee last year with a 17-of-25, 197-yard game with a rushing touchdown, but he has to prove he can keep his mistakes to a minimum.
What will happen: Middle Tennessee will provide a big push with QB Dwight Dasher bouncing back from a rough outing against Troy, but the Bulldogs will run for over 250 yards and will control the game from the start.
CFN Prediction: Mississippi State 34 … Middle Tennessee 24 ... Line: Mississippi State -3
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 2
-Free Expert Football Predictions
UL-Lafayette (3-2) at Western Kentucky (0-5),7:00 EST, Saturday, October 17
Why to watch: In a wide-open Sun Belt Conference, Louisiana-Lafayette hopes to stake its claim to contention in the coming weeks. The Ragin’ Cajuns are one of three schools yet to lose a league game, opening with a 38-34 victory over North Texas last weekend. Having already beaten Kansas State and faced LSU and Nebraska, they’re a battle-tested program heading into the halfway point of the season. Western Kentucky’s debut in the conference has gotten off to a predictably awful start, losing the first five games by an average margin of 27 points. The rest of the season will be like an extended spring for the Hilltoppers, which have a ton of work to do on both sides of the ball.
Why UL-Lafayette might win: It took over a month of tinkering, but the Cajun offense has shown glimpses of finally making progress. With a chance to pick someone its own size, UL-Lafayette pasted North Texas for 38 points behind the running of Undrea Sails and the scrambling of QB Chris Masson. This kind of production is liable to become a trend against Western Kentucky, which ranks last in the country in total defense and is giving up more than 40 points a game.
Why Western Kentucky might win: With Kawaun Jakes firmly entrenched as the starting quarterback and Bobby Rainey running well, the Hilltoppers have begun to show a spark on offense. Jakes is just a redshirt freshman, but his ability to break containment and head for the sticks is a problem for a UL-Lafayette defense that’s allowed at least 30 points in each of the last three games. Mean Green RB Lance Dunbar tore through the Ragin’ Cajuns a week ago, rushing for 187 yards and four touchdowns.
Who to watch: Senior LB Antwyne Zanders continues to be the leader of a UL-Lafayette defense that needs a few more players like him. He has a team-high 47 tackles and four tackles for loss, displaying the strength and instincts to sift through the wash and locate the man with the ball. With little to worry about in the passing game, he’ll spend most of the night focusing on stopping Jakes and Rainey.
What will happen: Until Western Kentucky can make more stops on third down and in the red zone, it’s going to remain one of the nation’s winless programs. While UL-Lafayette certainly has issues of its own, on this day, it’ll get a huge effort from Sails and a couple of key connections from Masson to remain spotless in conference play.
CFN Prediction: UL-Lafayette 31 … Western Kentucky 23 ... Line: UL-Lafayette -7.5
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Florida Atlantic (0-4) at North Texas (1-4),8:00 EST, Saturday, October 17
Why to watch: One of these two schools will have a reason to celebrate this weekend, which hasn’t happened since the opening night of the season. North Texas began the year with what appeared to be a table-setting win over Ball State, but the Cardinals proved to be awful and the Mean Green hasn’t won a game since then. It’s come close, including a one-point loss in double-overtime to Ohio and last week’s nail-biter to UL-Lafayette, but the result remains the same. Wasn’t Florida Atlantic supposed to be a Sun Belt heavyweight? The Owls’ problems have extended beyond a rugged non-conference schedule, highlighted by recent losses to Louisiana-Monroe and Wyoming. If there’s a rally left in the program, it’ll have to happen this Saturday in Denton.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: North Texas hasn’t stopped anyone in the last month, yielding at least 31 points in the last four games. The run defense has been the sore spot, which the Owls will attack with RB Alfred Morris. The league’s leading rushing at just under 100 yards a game, he’ll soften a Mean Green front seven that isn’t holding up at the point of attack. If too many troops are committed to slowing down Morris, veteran QB Paul Smith will make it pay, with the help of seam-busting TE Jason Harmon.
Why North Texas might win: Everyone likes to talk Dodge Ball when the Mean Green is the subject, but the secondary should not be overlooked. S DaWaylon Cook leads a unit that’s holding opponents to around a 50% completion percentage and is No. 1 in league pass efficiency defense. If it can take Smith out of the game, running room will be harder for Morris to come by. With Cam Montgomery returning from a hamstring injury and Lance Dunbar coming off a 187-yard, four-touchdown day, North Texas has a pair of backs capable of controlling the tempo of the game.
Who to watch: North Texas QB Riley Dodge isn’t any closer to being an effective passer in this league, but at least he’s getting more help from the receivers than earlier in the season. JUCO transfer Jamaal Jackson, in particular, has stepped into a starring role recently, showing good hands and catching at least 10 passes in each of the last two games.
What will happen: Howard Schnellenberger has owned North Texas, but this is a different Florida Atlantic team. It’s moving the ball, but not scoring enough points, a problem in a game that figures to be close and up for grabs late. The Mean Green has the better running game and a one-two punch out of the backfield to wear out the Owls in the final 15 minutes.
CFN Prediction: North Texas 30 … Florida Atlantic 28 ... Line: Florida Atlantic -3
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Troy (3-2) at Florida International (1-4),7:00 EST, Saturday, October 17
Why to watch: Now that Troy has gotten its rough start out of the system, it’s back to being the favorite to win the Sun Belt Conference championship. The Trojans have won three consecutive games, with an exclamation point blowout of Middle Tennessee State two weeks ago. The ship now righted, they’ll try to remain focused against weaker competition without looking ahead to a possible fourth bowl bid in the last six years. Florida International is coming off its first victory of the season, a 37-20 rout of Western Kentucky. That it came at the expense of the league’s newest member and worst program matters little to a school in dire need of a rallying point.
Why Troy might win: Everything has started to gel for the Trojans, but especially on defense. The unit is loaded with talented players, like DE Cameron Sheffield and LB Boris Lee, who’ve been stout since getting pushed around by Bowling Green and Florida the first two weeks. On offense, QB Levi Brown has Troy clicking, throwing five touchdowns to just one pick in the last three games and bringing out the best in WR TeBiarus Gill. This is not the week that Florida International’s problems on defense will be solved.
Why Florida International might win: Especially with star WR T.Y. Hilton nursing an injured knee, it’ll be up to QB Paul McCall to navigate a Troy defense that’s had issues defending the pass all year. The Panthers have scored at least 30 points in each of the last three games, mostly on the arm of their senior hurler. If Hilton is unavailable or less than 100%, the onus to step up falls on WR Greg Ellingson, who has delivered 11 receptions for 198 yards and a pair of touchdowns over the last two games.
Who to watch: One of the pleasant surprises on defense for Troy has been NT Eugene Kinlaw, a first-year transfer from Hutchinson (Kans.) Community College. A rock on the inside, he’s helped the Trojans solidify their reputation for having the league’s premier front seven. Explosive at 6-2 and 294 pounds, he has a team-best 5.5 tackles for loss and a pair of sacks.
What will happen: With Hilton at peak performance, you never know. Without him, however, this becomes a very ordinary Florida International offense. He’s that explosive. Troy is playing too well on both sides of the ball to get sidetracked by a Panther team still searching for consistency and the swagger of a winner.
CFN Prediction: Troy 34 … Florida International 19 ... Line: Troy -8
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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