2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 7 ... Oct. 17 Games
Cincinnati
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Connecticut
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Louisville
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Pittsburgh
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Rutgers
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South
Florida |
Syracuse
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West
Virginia
Big East Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
Cincinnati (5-0) at South Florida (5-0),7:30 EST, ESPN, Thursday, October 15
Why to watch: You might have to go back to the days when Miami and Virginia Tech were in the league to find a bigger Big East game than the one being staged in Tampa Thursday night. Cincinnati and South Florida are both unbeaten through five weeks, entering the showdown ranked and eager to take early control of the conference race. Although the Bearcats are the defending champs, few expected a team gutted by graduations to be even better than a year ago. They are. And the Bulls have been equally difficult to rationalize. Of all times to stun Florida State in Tallahassee, they did it a week after losing heart-and-soul QB Matt Grothe to a season-ending knee injury. Go figure. Whoever leaves Raymond James Stadium 6-0 will be labeled a fringe national championship contender for as long as it remains perfect.
Why Cincinnati might win: While the Tony Pike-to-Mardy Gilyard hook-up will be a huge concern for South Florida, solving the Bearcat D might be even tougher. With 10 new starters, Cincinnati has exceeded all expectations, allowing just 13 points a game and leading the nation in tackles for loss. The contributions aren’t limited to just a few players, though DE Alex Daniels and DT Derek Wolfe have been particularly ornery in recent weeks. While redshirt freshman B.J. Daniels has been terrific in Grothe’s absence, he’s still surrounded by an inconsistent ground game and an average offensive line. When the Bulls have the ball, the edge at the line of scrimmage goes to the Bearcats.
Why South Florida might win: The defensive talent has always been there for the Bulls, but now the production is finally matching it. Blessed with speed everywhere, South Florida has given up just 47 points all season, ranking No. 5 nationally in scoring defense. This is easily Pike’s biggest challenge of the year, trying to avoid the rush of linemen George Selvie, Terrell McClain, and Jason Pierre-Paul, while not getting robbed by CB Jerome Murphy and FS Nate Allen. No one in the league has more takeaways than USF. It’d be foolish to discount the importance of the home crowd, which is going to be electric for one of the biggest games in school history.
Who to watch: Gilyard has a most unique story. Lightly-recruited and, for a time, homeless, he left the state of Florida to become the king of the Queen City. One of the truly dynamic athletes in the country, he returns to the Sunshine State looking to make a statement on offense and special teams. South Florida is one of the few teams in the country that can match his burst, and the duel with Murphy will be sensational.
What will happen: In a huge game, take the team with the better combination of quarterback and head coach. In both cases, the edge goes to Cincinnati. Jim Leavitt is an icon, but give Brian Kelly almost two weeks to prepare and he’ll find the soft zones in the South Florida defense. While it certainly won’t be easy, the Bearcats are playing like a team on a mission, especially now that the defense is no longer a question mark. Pike will outplay Daniels, tossing a pair of touchdown passes and beefing up his resume for postseason individual honors.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 26 … South Florida 21 ... Line: USF -3
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 4.5
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Pittsburgh (5-1) at Rutgers (4-1),8:00 EST, ESPN, Friday, October 16
Why to watch: As the Big East schedule gradually starts taking shape, only Syracuse and Louisville appear to be on the outside looking in. So whenever contenders, such as Pittsburgh and Rutgers, get together, it has added significance in the battle for a league title and BCS bowl game. The Panthers actually enjoy an early lead in the race, courtesy of Saturday’s come-from-behind win over Connecticut, the biggest in the Dave Wannstedt era. They battled back from a 21-6 deficit, scoring the last 18 points, capped by a game-winning field goal on the final play. The Scarlet Knights have won four in-a-row since getting ambushed by Cincinnati on Labor Day, but remain a mystery. Beating Howard, Florida International, Maryland, and Texas Southern hasn’t answered many questions about their 2009 ceiling. A visit from Pitt, however, will.
Why Pittsburgh might win: This game could represent a culture shock for Rutgers, which hasn’t really been tested since Week 1 and is led by true freshman QB Tom Savage. Despite the tissue-soft schedule, the Scarlet Knights have struggled in the trenches, ranking 100th nationally in sacks allowed. That’s a big concern with the Panthers heading to Piscataway. Pitt is No. 3 in the country at getting to the quarterback, thanks to a deep and talented rotation in the front seven. The combination of Greg Romeus, Mick Williams, and Jabaal Sheard up front and Adam Gunn at linebacker is a tall order for a young quarterback just a couple weeks removed from returning from a concussion.
Why Rutgers might win: Fair or not, plenty will hinge on the performance of Savage, who’s playing in the first really big game of his young career. Right now, the best way to attack Pittsburgh is through the air, especially with CB Aaron Berry slowed by a shoulder injury. The Panthers have had frequent lapses in pass defense, which could be further exploited by speedy Tim Brown and talented rookie Mohamed Sanu. If the Knights’ No. 6 ranking in run defense is even remotely accurate, they’re liable to slow down RB Dion Lewis and squelch the balance that’s helped make QB Bill Stull effective.
Who to watch: Slowly but surely, Pitt’s Jonathan Baldwin is emerging into one of the top young wide receivers in the country. A human mismatch because of his size and speed, he’s averaging almost 20 yards a reception and has scored a touchdown in each of the last three games. If someone other than Devin McCourty gets matched with the sophomore, it’ll be a long night for the Rutgers D.
What will happen: With so much riding on the play of Savage, it’s difficult seeing the Scarlet Knights beat such a feisty defense with such an inexperienced player. The Panthers will inch up as much as possible to stop RB Joe Martinek, daring the rookie quarterback to beat them over the top. While the Pitt offense won’t flourish, it does have enough weapons, like Lewis, Baldwin, and TE Dorin Dickerson to extend drives and put points on the board.
CFN Prediction: Pittsburgh 24 … Rutgers 17 ... Line: Pitt -3
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 2.5
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Louisville (2-3) at Connecticut (3-2),12:00 EST, ESPN Gameplan, Saturday, October 17
Why to watch: If ever a loss was going to linger for Connecticut, last Saturday’s in Pittsburgh was it. The Huskies appeared headed toward a pivotal third straight win, leading 21-6 late in the third, before the wheels came off in a disappointing 24-21 defeat. In the tightly-packed Big East, sulking could mean a bowl-less December, so the program needs to have a short memory heading into this week’s game. Louisville earned a must-win at the expense of Southern Miss, rallying twice in the second half and surviving, 25-23. Although last weekend was a temporary tourniquet, if the Cards are going to stop the bleeding, they’ll need to beat a quality opponent away from home at some point.
Why Louisville might win: The Cardinals might be able to handle a one-dimensional offense, like the one they’ll be facing in East Hartford. Whether it’s been Zach Frazer or Cody Endres at the controls, the passing game has been awful, producing just a single touchdown pass in the last three games with FBS opponents. With few worries about the quarterbacks, Louisville can focus on stopping backs Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon. Led by DT L.D. Scott, who’s coming off a career game, and linebackers Jon Dempsey and Chris Campa, the Cards will be able to contain a Husky offense that rarely can build much distance.
Why Connecticut might win: The Husky D won’t have any problems suffocating this Cardinal team. Louisville has had issues of its own behind center, averaging less than 20 points a game since the opener with lowly Indiana State. The problems at quarterback have begun to impact the play of RB Victor Anderson, the team’s best offensive weapon. DE Lindsey Witten, S Robert Vaughn, and linebackers Lawrence Wilson and Greg Lloyd are the cornerstones of a disciplined defense that’s giving up just 283 yards and 16 points a game.
Who to watch: Dixon is once again running like he did in 2007, when he earned All-Big East honors. A tremendous complement to Todman, the two have both rushed for more than 400 yards and are fresher than opposing defenses in the final 15 minutes. As long as these backs continue to wear down the other team, Connecticut will be competitive on every Saturday.
What will happen: Randy Edsall is too good of a coach to allow last week’s loss to beat his Huskies twice. They’ll play with a sense of purpose, grinding out more than 200 yards on the ground and completely clamping down on a sub par Louisville offense. Once the spread gets into the double-digits, the game will already be out of reach for the Cardinals.
CFN Prediction: Connecticut 26 … Louisville 13 ... Line: Connecticut -11
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 2
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Marshall (4-2) at West Virginia (4-1),3:30 EST, ESPN Gameplan, Saturday, October 17
Why to watch: Although West Virginia has traditionally dominated Marshall in this brief series, you can guarantee that emotions will be running high when they meet in the fourth annual Friends of Coal Bowl. The Mountaineers don’t have much respect for the Herd. And the Herd doesn’t have any love for the Mountaineers. The hate will be palpable. Since giving a game away to Auburn, West Virginia has comfortably won consecutive games over Colorado and Syracuse. At 4-1, the ‘eers are poised to make a run at a Big East title once this week’s game is over. Marshall played well during the first half of the season, getting two games over .500 with last weekend’s rout of Tulane. While head coach Mark Snyder remains on probation, he might earn himself a long-term contract if he can finally shock the cross-state rival.
Why Marshall might win: As Darius Marshall goes, so goes the Herd. The nation’s No. 2 rusher, he’s averaging 147 yards a game, helping the transition of QB Brian Anderson into the starting role. The defense has been the surprise this year in Huntington. Since getting blown out in Blacksburg, Marshall has stiffened, allowing the last four opponents to an average of just 14 points a game. LB Mario Harvey has become the leader of a unit that’s gaining confidence every weekend. If West Virginia keeps having problems holding on to the ball, it’ll never be safe.
Why West Virginia might win: Playing the likes of Memphis and Bowling Green does little to prepare a team for the Mountaineer offense, which is chock full of speed and getting better. West Virginia has scored at least 30 points every game, blending a combination of Noel Devine on the ground and Jarrett Brown through the air. The defense hasn’t been too shabby either, holding teams to just 84 yards a game on the ground and 2.8 yards a carry. If linebackers J.T. Thomas and Reed Williams can help contain Marshall, Anderson doesn’t have a prayer of leading the Herd to an upset.
Who to watch: West Virginia DE Julian Miller is enjoying somewhat of a coming-out party in his second season in Morgantown. Part of the solution for the Mountaineers’ concerns with the pass rush, he’s had five stops behind the line and a team-high 3.5 sacks. A speed guy, if he gets around the edge, Anderson doesn’t have the quickness to get out of trouble.
What will happen: Snyder deserves credit for the job he’s doing this fall under difficult circumstances. He just doesn’t have the right mix of talent to deliver a breakthrough win of this magnitude. Although West Virginia won’t run away and hide until the second half, it’ll keep Marshall at arms length, getting big plays on offense from Devine and Brown. Marshall, the back, can only do so much without more help from the passing game.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 35 … Marshall 17 ... Line: West Virginia -19
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 2
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