DG on PX - Picking the Pac

Cal and UCLA look to score their first Pac-10 win, Stanford and Arizona try to bounce back from losses and USC heads to the Mecca of college football to renew its intersectional rivalry with the Fighting Irish.

Year to date - 32-10 straight up, 18-21 against the spread

USC at Notre Dame, 12:30 p.m.
My Pick – USC 28, Notre Dame 17
Why I’m Thinking the Way I’m Thinking – It comes down to the Trojan offense against the Irish D and, more specifically, avoiding turnovers. Joe McKnight will get plenty of touches and should break another long touchdown run, as he has in two previous games against Notre Dame, giving Matt Barkley chances to go deep off play action. USC gets defensive lineman Armond Armstead back at the right time, with tackles Christian Tupou and Averell Spicer banged up. Armstead and Tupou are expected to split reps opposite Jurrell Casey. Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd would have been the player to dictate coverage and give the Irish a chance to win the game. Without Floyd, USC will force players other than receiver Golden Tate and tight end Kyle Rudolph to beat them. Playing faster and more disciplined than last season’s record-setting unit, the Trojan defense can do that.
If I’m Wrong, I Will – Hope Jimmy Clausen is savvy enough to get out while the getting is good, unlike Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn and Sam Bradford.

California at UCLA, 12:30 p.m.
My Pick – Cal 24, UCLA 13
Why I’m Thinking the Way I’m Thinking – If linebacker Reggie Carter (knee) is on the wrong side of Saturday’s game-time decision, go ahead and pencil in Cal’s Jahvid Best for 200 yards rushing. Best is going to get a huge amount of work, making things easier for languishing junior quarterback Kevin Riley. His Bruin counterpart, Kevin Prince, wasn’t much better in his return from a broken jaw, spending some time on the bench while trying to dig UCLA out of a huge hole. If Prince can’t get it going this week, expect coach Rick Neuheisel to decide that freshman Richard Brehaut is his quarterback of the present and future.
If I’m Wrong, I Will – Expect to hear Jeff Tedford inexplicably join Georgia’s Mark Richt on the hot seat.

Stanford at Arizona, 3:00 p.m.
My Pick – Stanford 23, Arizona 17
Why I’m Thinking the Way I’m Thinking – The middle tier of the Pac-10 can be distinguished that its inability to win on the road. Stanford got jumped at Oregon State, while the ‘Cats were on the wrong end of the immaculate kick-flection. Assuming receiver Chris Owusu doesn’t drop any 80-yard touchdowns on the first play from scrimmage, running back Toby Gerhart will grind out his usual 100 yards and a couple of touchdowns, putting the Cardinal back in the win column.
If I’m Wrong, I Will – Challenge that noted internet meme that Mike Stoops loses football games.

Washington at Arizona State, 7:15 p.m.
My Pick – Washington 28, Arizona State 20
Why I’m Thinking the Way I’m Thinking – Give Steve Sarkisian a top-tier quarterback to coach up and he’ll put together an offense, though his playcalling will inevitably be criticized at some juncture. Sark has done just that at Washington, turning Jake Locker’s potential and promise into actual wins. The maligned Husky defense has actually been stingy in the red zone and should do the same against a shaky Sun Devils attack. If Arizona State was sloppy enough to let Washington State hang around, rejuvenated Washington will capitalize on this chance to inch closer to the six win threshold.
If I’m Wrong, I Will – Assume Brock Osweiler finally took over at quarterback for Arizona State.