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Mr Pac-10’s Weekly Review
Jacquizz Rodgers
Mr Pac Ten
Posted Oct 15, 2009

Collegefootballnews’ Matthew Smith Reviews all the Pac-10 Games, Week Six

Oregon St: They’re baaaaack….
Washington: This was a huge win for the Huskies.
Oregon: Solid performance at UCLA.

Arizona St: Meh performance at the Palouse.
Washington St: Clearly not a great performance, but not awful either.
Oregon St: Not a bad loss at all, but at 2-3 there’s not much room for error for this team.

UCLA: Not a great game for the Bruins.
Arizona: They weren’t that bad, but losing this game was a big blow.
Stanford: This was a bad performance.

@ Oregon St (pick) 38, Stanford 28
my pick: @ Oregon St 31, Stanford 27

What to take from this:
If you’re Stanford:

You have to wonder how much different this game would have been if Owusu hadn’t dropped an easy touchdown on the game’s first play. That said, the defense was horrible, only playing well long after the outcome was pretty much decided. The offense had some good moments, but again most of them came in essentially garbage time. It’s a good sign that the team kept fighting, but this definitely wasn’t a good game for this team.
If you’re Oregon St:

Just in case you weren’t convinced the Beavers were back after they won convincingly at ASU, it’s now official. They’re 4-2, a lock for the postseason with the Cougars still to play, and suddenly they look like the most serious threat to USC and Oregon.

Oregon (-3.5) 24, @ UCLA 10
my pick: Oregon 27, UCLA 24

What to take from this:
If you’re Oregon:

Decimated by injuries, the Ducks went on the road against a good team and won. Yeah, there was a luck element to it, and it’s weird that they only really played well for a few minutes of the game, but this was a good win for them. It’s good that they showed themselves capable of making big plays against a good defense, and it’s good that their own defense played really well all game long, even after numerous personnel losses.
If you’re UCLA:

This is a difficult game for me to interpret. Obviously, the offense has massive issues, but the defense played really well. In the first four minutes of the second half, they got killed, but for almost all of the rest of the game they seemed like the better team. Ultimately, it was the flip side of the Tennessee game: against a good defense and bad offense, it came down to a few key plays, and this time it didn’t work out. This is still a pretty good team, though if they can’t beat Cal, they’ll be at 3-3 and in some trouble.

@ Washington 36, Arizona (-3.5) 33
my pick: @ Arizona 28, @ Washington 17

What to take from this:
If you’re Arizona:

This is a bit better than the typical Arizona collapse, partially because the opponent was better than many they’ve choked against in the past, and partially because the key play (the pick six off of Dean’s foot) was more bad luck than anything else. That said, they had plenty of chances to put the game away, failed to do so, and left themselves in position where they could fall to a key play that went against them. Which is exactly what happened. Just in case you thought this was a team ready to challenge the top of the league, they made it clear that, while they’re always a threat to pull an upset, they’re simply not good enough week in and week out to seriously challenge for a Holiday Bowl bid or better.
If you’re Washington:

They were certainly lucky to win, but so what? Last week, they were unlucky to lose. Sometimes the breaks just even out. Now they’re 3-3, and it’s not like their final six games are way tougher than their first six games. The season probably comes down to the upcoming game at ASU. If they can win there, they’ve got a likely W against Wazzu, and while there are no guarantees, they ought to be able to pick up another one somewhere along the way. If not, 3-2 to close out the year is probably not going to happen.

Arizona St (-21) 27, @ Washington St 14
my pick: Arizona St 35, @ Washington St 10

What to take from this:
If you’re Arizona St:

ASU was definitely the better team, but when the other team is Wazzu, that’s not much to be happy about. The defense played well, including picking up four turnovers, but giving up a 99 yard TD pass is never a good thing. And while the offense ought to be happy about moving the ball, six turnovers is a disaster, the sort of thing that every other Pac-10 team will take heavy advantage of. Ultimately, what mattered most is that they got the win, but if they can’t follow it up with another against the Huskies they can probably forget about the postseason. The second half of the season is going to be light-years tougher than the first half, and if they can’t be above .500 after six, even hitting five wins could be pretty tough.
If you’re Washington St:

There were some good moments, like the 99-yard touchdown pass, but ultimately it was once again clear that the Cougars just weren’t good enough to compete. They’re slowly getting better, and things certainly aren’t as awful as the never-ending beatings they suffered last year, but it definitely looks like they’re headed for 0-9.

Pac-10 Games Record:
This Week: 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS
Season: 30-11 SU, 14-21-2 ATS

National Games of the Week:

Florida (-7.5) 13, @ LSU 3
my pick: Florida 27, @ LSU 14

Alabama (-4.5) 22, @ Ole Miss 3
my pick: @ Miss 24, Bama 21

@ Ohio St (-16.5) 31, Wisconsin 13
my pick: @ Ohio St 24, Wisconsin 21

National Games Record:
This Week: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS
Season: 7-11 SU, 7-11 ATS

Bad Lines

Iowa -8 vs Michigan
Missed by 6 points

Tennessee -1.5 vs Georgia
Covered by 24.5 points

Michigan St -4 @ Illinois
Covered by 6 points

Minnesota -3 vs Purdue
Covered by 12 points

Idaho +4.5 @ SJ St
Covered by 8.5 points and outright upset

Navy -11 @ Rice
Covered by 38 points

Colorado St +8 vs Utah
Covered by 1 points

Bad Lines Record:
This Week: 6-1
Season: 20-7

Mr Pac-10's 2009 Blog

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