2009 SEC Fearless Predictions
Week 7 ... Oct. 17 Games, Part 2
East |
Florida
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Georgia
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Kentucky
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South Carolina
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Tennessee
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Vanderbilt
West
Alabama
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Arkansas
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Auburn
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LSU |
Ole Miss
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Miss State
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Week 7, Part 1
UAB (2-3) at Ole Miss (3-2),2:00 EST, Saturday, October 17
Why to watch: While the season goes on at Ole Miss, the preseason expectations of an SEC title chase are already over. For the second time in the last three games, the Rebels just couldn’t produce on offense, managing a mere field goal in last week’s deflating loss to second-ranked Alabama. The rest of the schedule isn’t littered with landmines, so there’s still time left to make something special out of this campaign. UAB has had 16 days to get healthy and bask in the glow of a 30-17 trend-changing upset of Southern Miss. The Blazers realize what Conference USA has accomplished against the likes of West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech over the last 13 months, and will be seeking their place in league lore with an upset in Oxford.
Why UAB might win: Yeah, the Ole Miss defense has played well this fall, but it has shown cracks against the run, allowing more than 170 yards in each of the last two games. The Blazers, now No. 9 in the country in rushing, will put its fate in the hands—and feet—of QB Joe Webb, who has been a one-man gang throughout the first half. Moderately effective through the air, he’s done most of his damage between the tackles, ranking second in the league with 570 yards and five scores. If the Rebels continue having problems putting up points, Webb is liable to outscore them on his own.
Why Ole Miss might win: The Rebels represent a sizable step up in competition for a UAB squad that lacks depth or certainly SEC-caliber talent. The defense has played exceptionally well, allowing just 13 points a game and ranking No. 4 in the country in pass efficiency D. The way FS Kendrick Lewis has been patrolling the secondary and ends Kentrell Lockett and Greg Hardy have applied pressure, the Blazers will be even more predictable than usual. While QB Jevan Snead has had a very rough start, UAB’s nation’s-worst pass defense will be an ideal visitor to get him back on track.
Who to watch: This should be one of those games that the Rebels are finally able to unleash versatile playmaker Dexter McCluster, who’s been hemmed in for much of the year. One of the SEC’s most dynamic all-around players, he’s only rushed for 163 yards, caught 14 passes, and scored twice. He figures to be a lot busier this Saturday afternoon, as Ole Miss looks to get him more integrated into the attack.
What will happen: Had Ole Miss surprised ‘Bama last week, it might have been ripe for a letdown. Now, it’s just angry. With a chance to work out some frustration against a less physical opponent, it’ll bully UAB up and down the field for 60 minutes, with few let-ups. The Rebel defense is playing too well to be beaten by an offense lacking balance and ingenuity.
CFN Prediction: Ole Miss 38 … UAB 13 ... Line: Ole Miss -22
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 1.5
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Arkansas (3-2) at Florida (5-0), 3:30 EST, Saturday, October 17, CBS
Why to watch: If you’re looking for that quirky off-week that might catch Florida napping on the way to the SEC Championship game, this would be it. While this is a home oasis in a run of three road games in four, there can’t help but be a bit of an emotional letdown after last week’s scary 13-3 win at LSU. The Tim Tebow brain bruise took center stage, making the win over a No. 4 team in its home park a distant secondary story, and while Arkansas might not seem like that big a challenge considering the Hogs’ problems on defense, the danger element is still there. The Hogs lead the SEC in passing while the defense overcame its problems by forcing turnovers last week in a stunning 44-23 win over Auburn. Thanks to the emergence of QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas has scored 48, 41, 47, and 44 points, but the one dud came against Alabama in a 35-7 loss. If Florida wants to measure how good it is at the midseason compared to the red hot Tide, this game is it, and if Arkansas makes this interesting, it might go to show that there are holes in the nation’s No. 1 team.
Why Arkansas might win: For the first time all year, Florida is facing a quarterback who can throw at a high level. Troy’s Levi Brown is playing tremendously well, but that’s Troy. LSU’s Jordan Jefferson has had his moments, but he’s not Mallett. The Gator defense will be stretched out, and he’ll provide a push even though Mallett isn’t going to connect deep on a regular basis. Florida has been able to get by without taking any chances on offense and pounding away with its running game, but if the Hogs are able to get the machine rolling and make this a shootout, there could be problems for Tebow. The Gator receivers haven’t shown enough production yet to suggest that the offense can suddenly open up and start winning through the air.
Why Florida might win: All the attention is paid to Tebow and the offense, but thanks to the defense, you could’ve played quarterback for the Gators against LSU and Florida would’ve won. Brandon Spikes led the way in an inspired effort keeping the Tigers to just 162 yards of total offense and three points. How did Alabama shut down the Hogs? Steady pressure in the backfield, stop after stop on third down, and with an efficient passing game that kept Mallett off the field. Florida’s pass rush has been fine, but nothing special. Even so, it should get to Mallett and make him hurry a bit. The Gators are fifth in the nation in stops on third downs, allowing teams to convert just 26% of the time, and the passing game is the third most efficient in America thanks to Tebow. However …
Who to watch: Is he right in the head? Tebow was cleared to play by the doctors, but the offense seemed to play scared against LSU, and that definitely wasn’t the same reckless-abandon bulldozer that made him a legend. He has been fine and he has done what he has needed to do to keep the offense moving while not making many big mistakes, but he threw a bizarre interception late against the Tigers, his second in three games after throwing just two picks in the 2008 regular season, and he didn’t appear to be running anywhere near as hard as he normally does. If the Arkansas offense is humming, Tebow can’t play like he played against LSU, and the coaching staff has to quickly figure out if the offense and Tebow are the same as they were pre-concussion. In a perfect world, the defense does its job, the Gators are up big at halftime, and John Brantley gets to come in early in the third quarter.
What will happen: The Arkansas defense did its job last week against a high-powered Auburn team, but the turnovers aren’t going to be flowing this week. Chalk up another win for the Gator defense, while the running backs will play an even bigger role than they did against LSU.
CFN Prediction: Florida 34 … Arkansas 14 ... Line: Florida -24
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 4
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Kentucky (2-3) at Auburn (5-1), 7:30 EST, Saturday, October 17, ESPNU
Why to watch: Auburn was in the midst of a dream season before getting tripped by Arkansas. Turnovers and Hog QB Ryan Mallett were the problem, but the Tigers still showed that things have changed under the new coaching staff that that they’re going to be tough to deal with the rest of the way. The SEC title is still there for the taking with Auburn and LSU still on the slate, but the home game with UK has to be a layup. The Wildcats are on a three game losing streak, and while they battled well against South Carolina last week and gave Alabama one of its toughest games, 2-3 is still 2-3. They’re banged up and need to be better against the run and through the air, but if they can somehow pull off this win it’s smooth sailing over the second half with ULM, Mississippi State, and Eastern Kentucky up next. Auburn has to go to LSU next week.
Why Kentucky might win: The offensive line is playing extremely well. Even after playing Florida, Alabama, and South Carolina over the last three games, UK has allowed just five sacks on the season and has done a good job for the running game. Auburn’s defensive line has been fine, but it’s not like there’s a Tracy Rocker up front to stuff things up or get into the backfield. The Tigers have a pedestrian pass rush and aren’t going to be too disruptive. Kentucky’s offense hasn’t been bad when it has had time to work.
Why Auburn might win: The UK defense just doesn’t have the matchup to keep the Tiger offense under wraps. The run defense has had big problems at times, giving up 362 yards to Florida and 204 to Alabama, and it’s going to have a real problem against an Auburn ground game that has several dangerous weapons and can work inside and out. The UK pass defense has been a relative rock, mostly because the good teams spent most of their time running, but the secondary has taken a big hit with the loss of All-America CB Trevard Lindley to an ankle injury. Last week, South Carolina took advantage with a good day from QB Stephen Garcia, and after a rough outing against Arkansas, Auburn QB Chris Todd should have an efficient day.
Who to watch: With starting QB Mike Hartline getting knocked out with a knee injury against South Carolina, Kentucky was forced to get creative. Junior Will Fidler was awful, completing 2-of-8 passes for 16 yards, and he’s not enough of a runner to make a big difference on the ground. Do-it-all playmaker Randall Cobb will get more carries, to go along with his wide receiver duties, and the attack will rely more on Derrick Locke running the ball. For Auburn, senior RB Ben Tate is having a tremendous year. He tore off 184 yards and two touchdowns against Arkansas and has four 100-yard days. With 724 yards in the first five games, he’s a near-lock for 1,000 yards and he could start to see some All-America consideration if he keeps up his current pace.
What will happen: Auburn will bounce back in a hurry. The UK run defense will get ripped up but Tate, Onterio McCalebb, and the Tiger running game, while the Wildcat offense will struggle to keep up without Hartline.
CFN Prediction: Auburn 38 … Kentucky 20 ... Line: Auburn -12
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 2.5
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Week 7, Part 1
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