2009 Ind & ND Fearless Predictions - Week 7

Previews and Predictions for the Week 7 Independent Games

2009 Independent Fearless Predictions

Week 7 ... Oct. 17 Games

Army | Navy | Notre Dame 

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Army (3-3) at Temple (3-2),1:00 EST, Saturday, October 17

Why to watch: Shhhh. Temple coach Al Golden doesn’t want his kids to get too cocky after piecing together just its second three-game winning streak in the last 19 years. While the competition certainly has been light, don’t expect any apologies from an Owl program that’s thrilled about its rare view atop the MAC East. It gets a break from league action for a week before jumping back in with a trip to Toledo. Army believes that it’s entering uncharted waters as well, beating Vanderbilt to climb to .500 in mid-October for the first time in 13 years. With three wins already in the vault, the Black Knights could take a quantum leap toward the postseason on Saturday. They have a long and storied tradition with the city of Philadelphia, though Navy is typically in the other locker room.
Why Army might win: The Black Knights are competing at a higher level this season because of the play of the defense. Four of the first six opponents have been held to no more than 17 points, and the play in the red zone has been outstanding. The front seven, in particular, has quietly been stout, getting key stops out of DT Victor Ugenyi and linebackers Josh McNary and Stephen Anderson. Temple averages just 23 points a game and isn’t getting enough from the passing game to Army from keying on RB Bernard Pierce.
Why Temple might win: The Owl D has been every bit as good as Army’s this season. Maybe better. It leads the MAC in sacks and run defense, while allowing just 15 points a game during the winning streak. Although LB Adrian Robinson and FS Jaiquawn Jarrett have stood out, this has been a total team effort, with a different star emerging every weekend. Only Penn State has rushed for more than 100 yards on Temple this fall. If the Black Knights have problems establishing the run, their nation’s-worst passing game will be small consolation.
Who to watch: Whoever gets the most from the running game is going to pick up win No. 4. Pierce has been a revelation for the Owls in his first season. Not even listed on the three-deep for the opener with Villanova, he worked his way up the pecking order and took over in Week 3. Since then, he’s rushed for five scores and now leads the MAC in rushing.
What will happen: Golden has Temple playing the way he envisioned for the first time since he arrived. The Owls are running the ball effectively and playing solid defense. Although points will be hard to come by on Saturday, Temple will get another productive day on the ground from Pierce and a few field goals from Brandon McManus in a hard-fought win.
CFN Prediction: Temple 23 … Army 16 ... Line: Temple -9
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 1.5
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Navy (4-2) at SMU (3-2),8:00 EST, Saturday, October 17

Why to watch: Suddenly, this is a far more interesting game than it appeared to be in August. Navy and SMU enter the game on a high note, coming off impressive wins last weekend. The Midshipmen enjoyed their first of two trips to Texas, shellacking Rice, 63-14, for a third straight victory. At this pace, the Academy’s second 10-win season of the decade remains within reach. Less than two years into June Jones’ tenure in Dallas, SMU might be on the brink of turning the corner. Beating defending league champ East Carolina last Saturday was the type of breakthrough win that didn’t look possible just a year ago. Now over .500 and unbeaten in league play, is a bowl bid for the first time in a quarter-century in the Mustangs’ future? Beat Navy, and that becomes a very real possibility.
Why Navy might win: After sputtering a bit in September, the option has started to crank out the numbers again in Annapolis. The Middies punished Rice on the ground for 471 yards and nine touchdowns, rising to No. 6 nationally in rushing. QB Ricky Dobbs has been the hero, finding a groove of late and piling up nine rushing touchdowns in just the last three games. He’ll get plenty of help from Marcus Curry and Alexander Teich, provided the fullback can return from an ankle injury. The SMU defense has lived off the takeaway, but Navy is among the nation’s leaders in fewest turnovers.
Why SMU might win: The weakest link on the Navy defense has been the secondary, which Jones will quickly try to exploit. The Middies have produced more than two sacks in a game just once all year and don’t have the athletes to match Mustang racehorses Emmanuel Sanders, Aldrick Robinson, and Terrance Wilkerson. QB Bo Levi Mitchell will get the time he needs to spot one of those receivers and deliver him a strike. If Navy falls behind early, it doesn’t have the type of offense to climb back without milking a lot of clock.
Who to watch: The Navy defense has quietly played beyond expectations. Now, the strength has been against the run, which won’t be on display much this week. The backbone has been the corps of linebackers, which is typically asked to shut down running lanes, as opposed to dropping back into pass coverage. This week, however, Ross Pospisil, Tony Haberer, Clint Sovie, and Ram Vela will spend an unusual amount of time trying to bat down balls and cut off the intermediate stuff.
What will happen: Where would SMU be without those 19 turnovers in just five games? We’re about to find out. The Middies methodical, low-risk offense is a bad fit for a Mustang D that feeds off big plays and isn’t big or strong up front. Navy will exhaust SMU on the ground, using lengthy drives and the occasional Dobbs to Curry pass play to get out of Texas with a 2-0 mark.
CFN Prediction: Navy 33 … SMU 24 ... Line: Navy -7
Must See Rating: (Bored To Death 5 … My Monkey Baby 1) … 1.5
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