2009 BCS Analysis
Week 1 ... Oct. 17
-
2009
CFN Rankings
-
2009
Harris Poll
-
2009 Coaches' Poll
-
2009
AP Rankings
|
The Top
25
-
Expanded BCS Rankings
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. Cincinnati
6. Iowa
7. USC
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Miami
11. Oregon
12. Georgia Tech
13. Penn State
14. Virginia Tech
15. Oklahoma State
16. BYU
17. Houston
18. Utah
19. Ohio State
20. Pitt
21. Wisconsin
22. Arizona
23. West Virginia
24. South Carolina
25. Kansas |
It's all about the humans.
While the computers have their say, they're only one-third of the entire equation and were ignored when push came to shove over the last few years. Quick, who was the No. 1 team in last year's final BCS rankings according to the computers
two years ago? LSU? Ohio State? Maybe Georgia? USC?
Nope ... Virginia Tech.
What the humans say, goes. Three years ago the pollsters
didn't want an Ohio State - Michigan rematch for the national title,
after the two played a classic regular season finale, so they voted accordingly.
In 2007, they didn't want a Georgia team that didn't even win its own division playing for the whole ball of wax, and the polls reflected that. So as the season goes on, whatever you see in the USA Today Poll and the Harris Poll
(and remember, NOT the AP Poll), is probably what you'll see in the final analysis.
And with that in mind, the initial BCS Rankings are telling
because they show that the computers really don't matter early
on. With No. 3 Texas ranked sixth according to the computers,
No. 7 USC ranked 11th according to the computers, and No. 7 Iowa
ranked third. However, before you get too up in arms about what
the button-pushers think, remember that the computers are
supposed to take the entire season into account, so some of the
formulas will be skewed. Once the regular season and the
championship games are over, then the computers kick in. So for
now, again, look at the Coaches' and Harris polls because
they're the best indicator of what's to come.
The huge winner in the opening rankings is Boise State, who
starts out at No. 4 overall. That means, theoretically, if Texas
loses once and/or if the SEC champion has one loss, then an
undefeated Boise State would be playing in your 2010 BCS
Championship Game. That's never going to happen, the humans will
do everything possible to vote the unbeaten Broncos low enough
to keep them out, but the discussion could get interesting
As expected, though, it's all up to Florida, Alabama, and Texas.
If Texas goes unbeaten, it's playing for the national
championship. If the SEC champion is unbeaten, it's playing for
the national championship. Boise State, Cincinnati, or Iowa can
beat everyone by 50 and it won't matter if Florida and Texas are
13-0.
Other interesting notes from the rankings:
- The ACC has everyone confused. Georgia Tech beat Virginia
Tech, Virginia Tech beat Miami, Miami beat Georgia Tech, and no
one can quite figure out what the pecking order should be. All
three teams will be favored in every game the rest of the way,
and they'll all keep moving up.
- Notre Dame got no respect whatsoever for losing in the final
moments to Michigan or taking USC down to the final second.
Ranked 32nd, there's a ton of work to do to impress the humans
while the computers have the Irish 29th. Notre Dame gets an
automatic bid if it finishes in the top eight, and can be picked
as an at-large team if it finishes in the top 12.
- Remember, one non-BCS champion gets an automatic invite it it
finishes in the top 12, or if it finishes in the top 16 and a
BCS conference champion finishes lower. Boise State (4), TCU
(8), BYU (16), and Houston (17) are all in range. Assume that
one of the ten BCS slots is taken up by one of these four teams.
- The Big Ten got more respect from the rankings than it gets on
a national scale with Iowa (6), Penn State (13), Ohio State
(19), and Wisconsin (21) all in the top 21. The SEC has only
three teams in the top 23, the Big 12 only has two in the top
24, and the Pac 10 has two teams in the top 21.
- Oh how the mighty have fallen. Oklahoma is No. 30, one spot
behind Central Michigan.
The Big Winners: Boise State (4th),
Cincinnati (5th), USC (7th)
The Big Losers: TCU (8th), Miami
(10th), Georgia Tech (12th)
1. Florida Score: 0.9886
The almost unanimous No. 1 choice, with only two computer
formulas ranking the Gators outside of the top spot (2nd in one
and third in another), the close call against Arkansas didn't
matter and the win at LSU held a ton of weight. Stunningly,
Florida has a relatively healthy margin over Alabama, and while
that doesn't matter since the winner of the SEC title game is
likely in the national championship, it goes to show that who
the top team really is. Can the Gators still play for the
national title if they suffer a loss? Yes, but they must win the
SEC Championship.
Predicted Wins: at Mississippi State, Georgia,
Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, FIU, Florida State, SEC
Championship
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 13-0
Predicted Bowl: BCS Championship
Toughest Remaining Tests: Georgia, at South Carolina, Florida State
2. Alabama Score: 0.9526
No. 2 in three of the computer polls, No. 1 in one, and third in
the other two, Alabama is firmly entrenched as the No. 2 team in
America. The margin between the Tide and No. 3 Texas is Grand
Canyon-wide, and while it doesn't matter where the ranking is,
as long as it's in the top three, the initial rankings set up
the mother of all showdowns with Florida in the SEC title game.
It's this simple for Alabama: win the SEC Championship, and play
for the national title.
Predicted Wins: Tennessee, LSU, at Mississippi State,
Chattanooga
Predicted Losses: at Auburn, SEC Championship
Predicted Final Record: 11-2
Predicted Bowl: Sugar Bowl
Toughest Remaining Tests: LSU, at Auburn
3. Texas Score: 0.8911
Alabama and Florida will likely play each other, so being on an
island at No. 3, light years ahead of No. 4 Boise State and well
behind Alabama, is no big deal. Shockingly, though, the
computers seems to hate the Longhorns, ranking them sixth behind
Boise State and Cincinnati. Whatever. All that matters is
winning. If Texas goes unbeaten and wins the Big 12 title, it'll
play for the national championship no matter what. Because of
what happened last year, being the odd team out of the Big 12
title picture and missing a chance to play Florida for the
title, Texas will get the benefit of the doubt over almost
everyone, if all things are equal, if it has one loss but still
wins the Big 12 title.
Predicted Wins: at Missouri, at Oklahoma State, UCF, at
Baylor, Kansas, at Texas A&M, Big 12 Championship
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 13-0
Predicted Bowl: BCS Championship
Toughest Remaining Tests: at Missouri, at Oklahoma State
4. Boise State Score: 0.8083
No one apparently watched Boise State play Tulsa last Thursday
night. The humans have the Broncos fifth, while the computers
are in love with a team that has one nice home win, and that's
it. Ranked sixth by two computers, and fourth by two others, the
program is getting the respect it has so desperately craved. Now
it's time to get the Oregon pom-poms out, because that's the one
win that can save the team in its hunt to climb into the top
two. If nothing else, a BCS spot is a lock by winning out.
Predicted Wins: at Hawaii, San Jose State, at Louisiana
Tech, Idaho, at Utah State, Nevada, New Mexico State
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 12-0
Predicted Bowl: Fiesta
Toughest Remaining Tests: at Louisiana Tech, Nevada
5. Cincinnati Score: 0.7870
The Bearcats are right there, and the ranking will only get
higher as the season goes on with Connecticut, West Virginia,
and Pitt still to play. Not all that far behind Boise State
overall, the computers love UC, with a No. 4 ranking, and as
long as the team keeps winning, it'll be in the thick of the
national title chase. The ceiling, though, could be No. 3, and
the question could be if an unbeaten Cincinnati gets into the
national title over a one-loss USC or SEC champion.
Predicted Wins: Louisville, at Syracuse, Connecticut,
West Virginia, Illinois
Predicted Losses: at Pitt
Predicted Final Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Sugar
Toughest Remaining Tests:
6. Iowa Score: 0.7869
It's all up to the humans to finally come around. The computers
recognized the wins at Penn State and at Wisconsin, while the
win over Arizona was sneaky good and the victory over Michigan
is a plus. Ranked No. 3 by the computers, if Iowa wins out,
that's not going to change too drastically with games at
Michigan State and Ohio State ahead. The human polls aren't as
kind with the coaches putting the Hawkeyes eighth and the Harris
seventh. However, if Iowa wins out, it'll leapfrog both
Cincinnati and Boise State. There's no chance an unbeaten Iowa
gets passed over by an unbeaten Big East or WAC team for the
national championship.
Predicted Wins: at Michigan State, Indiana,
Northwestern, Minnesota
Predicted Losses: at Ohio State
Predicted Final Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Rose
Toughest Remaining Tests:
at Michigan State, at Ohio State
7. USC Score: 0.7695
They're still hanging around. With no love from the computers
whatsoever, mainly because beating Notre Dame seems to carry no
weight and the victory over Ohio State was hurt by the Buckeye
loss to Purdue, USC is ranked a stunning 11th. The humans are a
little bit kinder, but everyone will jump on board the bandwagon
if the Trojans win at Arizona State (a very, very strong
defensive team) and at Oregon. If USC wins out, if everything
plays out according to plan, it'll finish no lower than fourth,
and possibly No. 3.
Predicted Wins: Oregon State, at Arizona State,
Stanford, UCLA, Arizona
Predicted Losses: at Oregon
Predicted Final Record: 10-2
Predicted Bowl: Fiesta Bowl
Toughest Remaining Tests: at Oregon, at Arizona State
8. TCU Score: 0.7139
No one's quite sure what to make of TCU quite yet. The Horned
Frogs got to beat Virginia before it turned its season around,
and the win over Clemson carries some weight, but it all comes
down to two things: a win over BYU this week, and a Boise State
loss. The BCS isn't going to take two non-BCS teams, even if
they're undefeated, and Boise State is going to stay ahead of
TCU all season long.
Predicted Wins: UNLV, at San Diego State, Utah, at
Wyoming, New Mexico
Predicted Losses: at BYU
Predicted Final Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Poinsettia
Toughest Remaining Tests: at BYU, Utah, at Wyoming
9. LSU Score: 0.7083
LSU is in better shape for the national title than anyone ranked
fourth through eighth. The one loss came to Florida, from the
East, and if the Tigers win out, that means they'll have beaten
Alabama at Alabama, Ole Miss at Ole Miss, Auburn and Arkansas.
That would also mean the West title, which would mean a rematch
with Florida. If they win that, then it's on to Pasadena, and
not for the Rose Bowl.
Predicted Wins: Auburn, Tulane, Louisiana Tech,
Arkansas
Predicted Losses: at Alabama, at Ole Miss
Predicted Final Record: 9-3
Predicted Bowl: Outback
Toughest Remaining Tests:
Auburn, at Alabama, at Ole Miss, Arkansas
10. Miami Score: 0.6273
Miami is stuck among the glut of ACC teams. There isn't anything
the Canes can do the rest of the way to make too much of a
splash, they'll be favored in every game up until the ACC
Championship, and the ceiling might be the Orange Bowl. Miami
can get close, but they'll lose out to USC, the SEC champion,
and Texas, if they all finish with one loss.
Predicted Wins: Clemson, at Wake Forest, Virginia, at
North Carolina, Duke, at South Florida, ACC Championship
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 12-1
Predicted Bowl: Orange
Toughest Remaining Tests: at Wake Forest, at North Carolina
In Range:
11. Oregon Score: 0.5849
12. Georgia Tech Score: 0.5702
13. Penn State Score: 0.4982
14. Virginia Tech Score: 0.4947
15. Oklahoma State Score: 0.4043
16. BYU Score: 0.2986
17. Houston Score: 0.2660
18. Utah Score: 0.2511
19. Ohio State Score: 0.2216
20. Pitt Score: 0.2012
|