After a fairly decent performance last year, I decided against massive overhauls, though as always I did do a number of offseason tweaks. One big change from last year to this year is that I will only be doing ATS picks instead of both ATS and moneyline picks. From the feedback I've gotten, ATS picks are the ones that people most look at (and following the numbers is much less complicated), so I've chosen to focus on those, though I'll still internally track moneyline numbers, and may switch back to doing both at some point in the future.
There are two other changes I'd like to highlight. First and foremost, I'm happy to announce the return of the NFL model. I've spent a substantial amount of time in the offseason building and editing the NFL model to the point where I'm comfortable running with it and seeing how it does this year. As with the college model, picks will only start in week eight, so you won't be seeing NFL picks until next week.
The other change regards the confidence levels. Previously, I split picks between low, medium, and high confidence levels. This has now been expanded to five confidence levels, and each pick will be assigned one unit per confidence level; therefore the highest confidence picks (which tend to be very rare) will count five times as much towards the tracked total as the lowest! Splitting picks in such a way lets me emphasize the picks that the model most believes in, while at the same time picking more games per week than it normally did in prior iterations.
Mr Pac-10's 2009 Blog
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