2009 ACC Fearless Predictions
Week 8 ... Oct. 24 Games
Atlantic
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Boston College |
Clemson |
Florida
State |
Maryland |
NC
State |
Wake
Forest
Coastal
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Duke
| Georgia
Tech |
Miami
| North
Carolina |
Virginia |
Virginia Tech
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Game of the Week
Florida State (2-4) at North Carolina (4-2),8:00 EST, ESPN, Thursday, October 22
Why to watch: The unmistakable scent of desperation will be in the Chapel Hill air when Florida State visits North Carolina on Thursday night. Losers of three straight games, the Seminoles have become an improbable ACC punch line, with the venerable Bobby Bowden left to defend himself in front of a growing number of rubberneckers. Can the ‘Noles win one for their beleaguered coach or are their collective heads already someplace else? The Tar Heels’ situation isn’t a heck of a lot better. A trendy choice in August to win the conference, they’ve yet to play a complete 60 minutes, meekly losing the first two league games to Georgia Tech and Virginia. With a trip to Blacksburg looming a week from now, Carolina has cornered itself into a must-win situation.
Why Florida State might win: If futility was a fragrance, the Carolina offense would reek of it. Forget the last game with Georgia Southern. Prior to that, the Tar Heels managed just 10 points and 328 total yards in the losses to the Yellow Jackets and Cavs. Unless QB T.J. Yates and RB Shaun Draughn suddenly start performing like All-Americans, the league’s worst offense will struggle to get out of the basement. While the Seminole D has been nearly as inept, defenders, such as S Jamie Robinson and linebackers Dekoda Watson and Kendall Smith, are going to play with a chip on their shoulders. In QB Christian Ponder, Florida State has the one offensive player capable of making plays and even taking the game over.
Why North Carolina might win: Defense. That and a schedule that includes two FCS opponents are the only reasons why the Tar Heels are two games over .500. They lead the ACC in defense, yielding just 237 yards and 14 points a game. No one has tagged them for more than 24 points. Air-tight versus the pass, Carolina is getting support up front from DE Robert Quinn and DT Aleric Mullins, and outstanding coverage from corners Charles Brown and Kendric Burney. As productive as Ponder has been, you don’t solve this caliber of D with a one-dimensional offense and average skill players.
Who to watch: If Florida State is to snap the losing streak, it has to put Ponder in a position to make plays and distribute the ball. And if Ponder is going to make plays, someone—or two—has to get a consistent hat on Quinn. Without a lot of warning in the preseason, he’s emerged as one of the league’s best pass rushers, racking up an ACC-best seven sacks and a slew of hurries. The pivotal game-within-the-game pits the deep Carolina defensive line against a Florida State offensive line that has yet to live up to the hype.
What will happen: When both teams have their backs firmly against the wall, take the one that’s playing better defense and playing at home. Realizing the offense has severe limitations, the Tar Heel defense will rise up with plenty of backfield pressure and a couple of key turnovers. Yates & Co. will need the short field because long drives just aren’t in its arsenal. Get to know your placekickers in this one because Carolina’s Casey Barth and Florida State Dustin Hopkins will play important roles in the outcome.
CFN Prediction: North Carolina 24 … Florida State 19 ... Line: North Carolina -2.5
Must See Rating: (Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer’s
Cut) 5 ... This Is It 1) … 3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Georgia Tech (6-1) at Virginia (3-3),12:00 EST, Saturday, ESPN Gameplan, October 24
Why to watch: In one of the strangest twists of the entire weekend, it’s 3-3 and unranked Virginia, not 6-1 and No. 12 Georgia Tech, that’s the last remaining unbeaten team in ACC play. While scheduling has certainly played a factor in this oddity, everyone will have no choice but to start taking the Cavaliers seriously if they deliver an upset this weekend. After stumbling out of the gate, they’ve regrouped impressively with three wins in-a-row. The Yellow Jackets catapulted into the Coastal Division foreground with last week’s 28-23 win over Virginia Tech, the school’s first at home over a top 5 team in 47 years. Tech has found its groove since losing to Miami a month ago, winning four straight and steadily climbing in the polls.
Why Georgia Tech might win: All is well on the Flats when the triple-option is clicking the way it’s been during the hot streak. The key has been QB Josh Nesbitt, who has turned the corner in his progression, running for 262 yards and six touchdowns in recent wins over Florida State and Virginia Tech. When he’s doing his job, life becomes much easier for backs Jonathan Dwyer, Anthony Allen, and Roddy Jones. If the Jackets are controlling the clock and putting points on the board, Virginia will struggle to keep up on offense. The Cavs have been inconsistent all year, ranking 10th or lower in total and scoring offense.
Why Virginia might win: Over the last three weeks, the Cavalier D has become downright ornery, holding North Carolina, Indiana, and Maryland to a total of 16 points and a single meaningless touchdown. It’s been stout against the run and even better when the ball is in the air, especially on third down and in the red zone. Ras-I Dowling, Rodney McLeod and the rest of the secondary has been outstanding, while the front seven is meshing around LB Steve Greer and DE Nate Collins.
Who to watch: As if having a bum ankle isn’t bad enough, Virginia QB Jameel Sewell could spend much of the afternoon trying to outrun Georgia Tech Derrick Morgan. The junior already has 7.5 sacks, and would have more if he wasn’t always attracting attention. The Cavaliers are 118th nationally in sacks allowed, having particular problems in pass protection when they employ Gregg Brandon’s spread attack.
What will happen: While Georgia Tech might certainly be a little overconfident after last Saturday’s huge win, it’s not as if Virginia is ready to be anointed an ACC power broker. The Cavs’ run has been terrific, but they’re about to take a step up in weight class. The Jackets’ ground game is a different animal, especially when it’s humming efficiently. Although the yards will be tough to come by, Tech will break through occasionally behind Nesbitt and pull away in the second half.
CFN Prediction: Georgia Tech 28 … Virginia 17 ... Line: Georgia Tech -4
Must See Rating: (Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer’s
Cut) 5 ... This Is It 1) … 3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Maryland (2-5) at Duke (3-3),1:30 EST, Saturday, October 24
Why to watch: Duke was also 3-3 at this time a year ago, but faded down the stretch in its attempt to become bowl eligible for the first time since 1994. This year’s edition vowed during its bye week to be different. Leading up to the break, the Blue Devils were 2-1, with the lone loss coming to Virginia Tech by only eight points. If David Cutcliffe’s kids are going to play past November, they’ve got to take the winnable games, like this Saturday, for instance. Maryland appears be the ACC’s worst team. It could become official this week in Durham. The Terrapins are just 1-5 against FBS teams, losing the last two to Wake Forest and Virginia, and appearing to have also lost the drive to overcome a gap in talent.
Why Maryland might win: Don’t judge the Terp offense based solely on last week’s game with Virginia. It’s was a quagmire and the Cavs are playing real well defensively. Prior to that, Maryland was beginning to show signs of life, with the running of Davin Meggett and the pitch-and-catch combo of Chris Turner to Torrey Smith. Duke has one of the league’s worst defenses, unable to get to the quarterback or make enough stops on third down.
Why Duke might win: The hottest quarterback in the ACC? How about Blue Devil veteran Thaddeus Lewis, who has accounted for 11 touchdowns and no picks over the last three games? His corps of receivers is growing deeper and more mature with each passing game. He can spread the ball around to a number of different capable hands, including receivers Donovan Varner, Conner Vernon, Austin Kelly, and Johnny Williams. The Terps’ league-worst scoring defense and inexperienced secondary doesn’t figure to offer too much resistance.
Who to watch: When Lewis drops back to pass, he won’t be limited to just his wide receivers. TE Brett Huffman has proven to be a reliable target as well. Like an oversized receiver, he runs good routes and has soft hands, turning his 10 receptions into 109 yards and three touchdowns. He’ll be matched with Alex Wujciak, Adrian Moten, and Demetrius Hartsfield, who comprise one of the nation’s more underrated collections of linebackers.
What will happen: Assuming the weather cooperates, this could be one of the more entertaining shootouts of the weekend. Both teams have capable parts in the passing game and defenses susceptible to breakdowns and blown coverages. The difference is that Duke has something to play for and a sizzling quarterback. Lewis will remain in the zone, peppering an overmatched Maryland secondary for more than 300 yards and four touchdowns through the air.
CFN Prediction: Duke 35 … Maryland 27 ... Line: Duke -6
Must See Rating: (Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer’s
Cut) 5 ... This Is It 1) … 1.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 8,
Part 2 (Clemson at Miami, & more)