2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 8 ... Oct. 24 Games
Cincinnati
|
Connecticut
|
Louisville
|
Pittsburgh
|
Rutgers
|
South
Florida |
Syracuse
|
West
Virginia
Big East Fearless Predictions
-
Week 1 |
Week 2
|
Week 3 |
Week 4
| Week
5
| Week
6
- Week
7
Game of the Week
Connecticut (4-2) at West Virginia (5-1),12:00 EST, ESPNU, Saturday, October 24
Why to watch: Before even getting to Morgantown, it’s going to be a difficult week for the Connecticut family, which must bury CB Jasper Howard, the victim of a stabbing over the weekend. It was a cruel shift of emotions for the Huskies, which a few hours earlier had beaten Louisville, 38-25, to remain viable in the Big East race. Have you wondered what the future at quarterback will look like at West Virginia? You might not have to wait until 2010 if senior starter Jarrett Brown is unable to bounce back from the head injury he suffered in Saturday’s win over Marshall. True freshman Geno Smith stepped in and got the first significant action of his career. The Mountaineers, along with Pitt and Cincinnati, are one of three schools left without a conference loss.
Why Connecticut might win: Whether its Brown or Smith in the huddle, the Huskies are going to be tough and fundamentally-sound on defense. They always are. Connecticut allows just 18 points a game, and with help of CB Robert McClain and S Robert Vaughn, has picked off two passes in each of the last three games. DE Lindsey Witten is the catalyst of the nation’s ninth-ranked sack unit, getting to the quarterback 9.5 times all by himself. Andre Dixon and Jordan Todman form the league’s best backfield tandem, both rushing for at least 500 yards and six touchdowns through the first six games.
Why West Virginia might win: It’ll be strength against strength when Dixon and Todman try to solve the Mountaineers’ No. 7 run defense, which has yet to allow an opponent more than 100 yards rushing. If the Huskies don’t establish the run, it cannot expect marginal QB Cody Endres to carry the offense. Linebackers J.T. Thomas, Pat Lazear, and Reed Williams lead a front seven that’ll shut off running lanes and limit yards after contact. No one has been able to stop RB Noel Devine, who’s rushed for 734 yards, scored 10 times, and is always a threat to break through the secondary.
Who to watch: Although NT Chris Neild doesn’t put up gaudy numbers, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t played a vital role in the Mountaineers’ success at stuffing the run. Intense and physical at the point of attack, he sometimes requires more than one blocker, which allows those around him to make stops. If Neild can win the battles with the interior of the Husky line, Dixon and Todman will take plenty of hits at or very close to the line of scrimmage.
What will happen: Naturally, a lot depends on the health of Brown, who could wind up being a game-time decision. If he plays, the Mountaineers will enjoy that coveted run-pass option needed to move the chains on Connecticut. If not, the likelihood of an upset increases dramatically. Either way, the Mountaineers will survive behind the play of a defense that’s getting better as the season progresses and will pick up as much slack as is needed to survive.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 26 … Connecticut 16 ... Line: West Virginia -7
Must See Rating: (Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer’s
Cut) 5 ... This Is It 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Rutgers (4-2) at Army (3-4),8:00 EST, ESPN2, Friday, October 23
Why to watch: Now that Rutgers is 0-2 in Big East play, it can forget about a conference championship and start concentrating on simply becoming bowl-eligible for the fifth straight year. The Scarlet Knights have failed in both of their home attempts to defeat currently ranked teams, losing to Pittsburgh on Friday night, 24-17. They’ve got one more leg left in the cotton jersey non-conference tour before returning to the league slate with a trip to Connecticut. For Army, this is a fork-in-the-road evening if it has any hope of winning six games and qualifying for the postseason. The Black Knights have been up-and-down throughout the season, running out of gas against Temple a week after an emotional upset of Vanderbilt. Still, progress is being made under first-year coach Rich Ellerson, lending hope for the future on the Hudson.
Why Rutgers might win: Army’s inability to reach the end zone has haunted it throughout the first half of the year. After putting up no more than 16 points in each of the last four games, things don’t figure to get any easier against a quality Big East defense. For this type of opponent, edge rushers George Johnson and Jonathan Freeny will be required to spend more time defending the run, and safeties Joe Lefeged and Zaire Kitchen will be used like linebackers. Unlike last Friday, when Dion Lewis gashed the Knights for 180 yards, the Cadets don’t have the passing threat to keep the Scarlet Knights from stacking the box.
Why Army might win: Rutgers has had issues of its own on offense, and the Black Knight defense is for real. Though it lacks the household names of other defenses, Army ranks No. 17 nationally and is giving up just 22 points a game. Unless Howard or Texas Southern was on the other sideline, the Scarlet Knights sputtered frequently through the first six games. Army will press the issue with an underrated front seven that’s led by high-energy DE Josh McNary and LB Stephen Anderson. McNary is third in the country in sacks and tackles for loss, while Anderson leads the team with 57 tackles.
Who to watch: Rutgers true freshman QB Tom Savage has yet to play a game away from Piscataway, making Friday another important step in his apprenticeship. He’s done a nice job of managing the last two games and has thrown just one interception in 124 passing attempts. Mature beyond his years, he grows with each game, lending the hope the program will have its second straight four-year starter at the position.
What will happen: Go ahead and bank on a defensive struggle that’s long on big hits and very short on big plays. While neither team will have much success with the ball, Rutgers will eventually be able to move Army off the line of scrimmage with its edge at the point of attack, creating space for Joe Martinek and Kordell Young to run. It won’t be technically sound, but the Scarlet Knights will get out of Michie Stadium with win No. 5.
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 27 … Army 16 ... Line: Rutgers -9.5
Must See Rating: (Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer’s
Cut) 5 ... This Is It 1) … 1.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
South Florida (5-1) at Pittsburgh (6-1),12:00 EST, ESPNGameplan, Saturday, October 24
Why to watch: South Florida and Pittsburgh basically swapped spots in the polls last weekend, the former dropping out with a loss to Cincinnati and the latter jumping in after beating Rutgers. Both schools are still eyeing a BCS bowl game in a race that’s gradually coming into focus. The Panthers sit atop the conference and are a win away from their best start since Dan Marino was still an amateur a quarter-century ago. Healthy and with just one road game left in the regular season, they’re beginning to feel pretty about their chances of playing in January. The Bulls will need to rebound quickly from their first loss of the season or else a second half slide might ensue. As if South Florida hasn’t had enough problems playing in cold weather, it’s been an unusually nippy October in Western Pennsylvania.
Why South Florida might win: Pittsburgh hasn’t faced a really fast, stingy defense all year...until now. Sure, the Bulls got burned by scrambling QB Zach Collaros last Thursday, but Bill Stull doesn’t provide a similar threat. South Florida will bring waves of pressure up front from linemen George Selvie, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Craig Marshall, challenging a Panther line that’s been terrific, but has yet to face this much explosiveness. While young and raw, QB B.J. Daniels has the physical ability and arm strength to test an inconsistent Pitt secondary with long-ball threats Carlton Mitchell and Dontavia Bogan.
Why Pittsburgh might win: Daniels looks as if he’s going to be special, but this is a rough spot for the redshirt freshman. The chilly winds of Pittsburgh can be maddening for a quarterback, particularly a young one with no outdoor experience outside Florida. He figures to be erratic, especially in the face of the nation’s No. 3 sack unit, a group being bolstered by DE Greg Romeus, DT Mick Williams, and LB Adam Gunn. Save for a second half meltdown in Raleigh, the Panther D has been nasty all year. Dion Lewis, who’s rushed for 338 yards over the last two games will provide all that Pitt needs on offense.
Who to watch: Stull continues to defy his previous track record and be exactly what the Panthers need him to be. No longer trying to play beyond his capabilities, he’s thrown 14 touchdown passes to just three picks and is No. 7 in the nation in passing efficiency. He’s making great use of TE Dorin Dickerson and occasionally finding WR Jonathan Baldwin over the top. Don’t discount the importance of Stull to Lewis’ amazing rookie year.
What will happen: This is the place and the time of year when you’ve got to be able to run the ball with consistency. Pittsburgh will get it done between the tackles. South Florida will not. The Panthers can lean on Lewis to grind out 100 yards, while connecting on the occasional play-action from Stull. Daniels has a marginal supporting cast, which will force him to do more than he’s capable against this rugged Pitt front seven.
CFN Prediction: Pittsburgh 24 … South Florida 16 ... Line: Pittsburgh -6.5
Must See Rating: (Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer’s
Cut) 5 ... This Is It 1) … 3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Louisville (2-4) at Cincinnati (6-0),3:30 EST, ESPNU, Saturday, October 24
Why to watch: These are strange times in Cincinnati, indeed. One of just seven unbeaten teams left in the country, the Bearcats are navigating uncharted waters after debuting at No. 5 in the first BCS rankings. However, they’re also trying to process an injury to star QB Tony Pike, who sprained his wrist and aggravated a plate in his forearm in Thursday’s key win over South Florida. He hasn’t been ruled out of this week’s game, though super sub Zach Collaros will prepare as if he’ll be the starter. Winners of five of the last six in this rivalry, Louisville needs to get its hands on the Keg of Nails in the worst way. The Cardinals are in danger of circling the drain after fumbling a game to Connecticut and falling two games below .500. With rumors about Steve Kragthorpe’s future beginning to swirl, the team needs to tune out the noise and focus on picking up a Big East win.
Why Louisville might win: Obviously, if Pike is unavailable, it’s a boon to the Cardinals’ chances. As good as Collaros was in Tampa, he has limited experience and nowhere near the potential as a passer, which neutralizes Mardy Gilyard and the talented Cincy receivers. Adam Froman is settling into his role as the starting quarterback, throwing for 295 yards on Connecticut and getting the best out of WR Scott Long. With a threat from the passing game, backs Victor Anderson and Bilal Powell have started to enjoy more running room than earlier in the year.
Why Cincinnati might win: Even if the Bearcat offense takes a step back until Pike is up and running, the defense is capable of picking up the slack. One of the biggest surprises of the first half in the Big East, the rebuilt unit has been stout, yielding just 14 points a game and leading the country in tackles for loss. It’s been a total team effort, with first-time starters, like LB JK Schaffer, DT Derek Wolfe, and CB Dominique Battle, rising to the challenge. The always-important turnover battle will heavily favor the home team. While Cincinnati ranks No. 5 nationally, Louisville is No. 90 and having problems protecting the ball.
Who to watch: The Cincinnati D was playing well before LB Curtis Young returned, but it’ll be even deeper and harder to circumvent now that he’s back from knee surgery. A hybrid between an outside linebacker and a defensive end, he had three tackles for loss in the opener with Rutgers before getting hurt a week later. In the South Florida game, he had five solo tackles and two more stops behind the line, signaling a rapid return to his pre-injury form.
What will happen: Considering all that’s swirling around Cincinnati these days, might it be vulnerable a week following the nationally-hyped South Florida game? You bet. Especially in a rivalry game, the Bearcats will have to be careful not to get caught in a lull. They’ll struggle early before the defense comes through with a couple of key stops and turnovers to change the tempo of the game. Cincy will remain unbeaten, but will have to sweat this one out for a while.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 30 … Louisville 17 ... Line: Cincinnati -17
Must See Rating: (Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer’s
Cut) 5 ... This Is It 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Akron (1-5) at Syracuse (2-4),3:30 EST, Saturday, October 24
Why to watch: Syracuse comes out of its bye week with a much-needed break in the Big East action. In its last two games, the Orange faced two of the league’s elite programs, losing both at home to South Florida and West Virginia. While a postseason game remains a distant longshot, first-year coach Doug Marrone is determined to build more momentum and improve his kids’ fundamentals over the second half of the season. Akron will be playing out the string in the last six games, a reality that comes with five losses in five tries against FBS opponents. The Zips showed some heart in last week’s trip to Upstate New York, but squandered a fourth quarter lead and lost a tough one to Buffalo, 21-17.
Why Akron might win: Sure, there’s going to be a natural learning curve, but the Zips have shown signs of life on offense since true freshman Patrick Nicely was installed as the starting quarterback. He has an outstanding future and decent supporting cast to help attack a beatable Syracuse pass defense. Deryn Bowser and Jeremy LaFrance have each caught 21 passes, the former turning five of those into touchdowns. Balance on the ground will come from redshirt freshman RB DeVoe Torrence, who ran for 90 yards a week ago in the most extensive action of his season.
Why Syracuse might win: Save for the Morgan State game, opponents have had their way with the Akron defense throughout the year. The Orange will build the attack around Delone Carter, who’ll enjoy his most running room in almost a month. Having held off the challenge of Ryan Nassib, QB Greg Paulus will play with something to prove. He’ll get plenty of help from WR Mike Williams, who has abused opposing defensive backs for 45 catches for 712 yards and six touchdowns. There isn’t a Zip on the roster who can contain No. 1, one of the Big East’s most underappreciated playmakers.
Who to watch: Akron would like to run the ball in order to take some heat off its rookie quarterback. It won’t happen. Syracuse has quietly been stout against the run, allowing just 97 yards a game and less than three yards a carry. The spark has come from the middle of the defense, where NT Arthur Jones and LB Derrell Smith are performing like all-stars. Jones is a next-level run-stuffer and Smith leads the team in tackles, tackles for loss, and sacks, a one-two punch that the Zips won’t be able to overcome.
What will happen: Go ahead and flex your muscles, Syracuse. It doesn’t happen often. The Orange will take full advantage of facing a lesser opponent, building a lead behind 100 yards from Carter and a couple of touchdown receptions from Williams. Forced into a comeback mode on the road, Nicely will deliver more turnovers than points.
CFN Prediction: Syracuse 28 … Akron 17 ... Line: Syracuse -9.5
Must See Rating: (Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer’s
Cut) 5 ... This Is It 1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions