2009 Ind & ND Fearless Predictions - Week 8

Previews and Predictions for the Week 8 Independent Games

2009 Ind. Fearless Predictions

Week 8 ... Oct. 24 Games

Army | Navy | Notre Dame 

Independent Fearless Predictions
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Rutgers (4-2) at Army (3-4),8:00 EST, ESPN2, Friday, October 23

Why to watch: Now that Rutgers is 0-2 in Big East play, it can forget about a conference championship and start concentrating on simply becoming bowl-eligible for the fifth straight year. The Scarlet Knights have failed in both of their home attempts to defeat currently ranked teams, losing to Pittsburgh on Friday night, 24-17. They’ve got one more leg left in the cotton jersey non-conference tour before returning to the league slate with a trip to Connecticut. For Army, this is a fork-in-the-road evening if it has any hope of winning six games and qualifying for the postseason. The Black Knights have been up-and-down throughout the season, running out of gas against Temple a week after an emotional upset of Vanderbilt. Still, progress is being made under first-year coach Rich Ellerson, lending hope for the future on the Hudson.
Why Rutgers might win: Army’s inability to reach the end zone has haunted it throughout the first half of the year. After putting up no more than 16 points in each of the last four games, things don’t figure to get any easier against a quality Big East defense. For this type of opponent, edge rushers George Johnson and Jonathan Freeny will be required to spend more time defending the run, and safeties Joe Lefeged and Zaire Kitchen will be used like linebackers. Unlike last Friday, when Dion Lewis gashed the Knights for 180 yards, the Cadets don’t have the passing threat to keep the Scarlet Knights from stacking the box.
Why Army might win: Rutgers has had issues of its own on offense, and the Black Knight defense is for real. Though it lacks the household names of other defenses, Army ranks No. 17 nationally and is giving up just 22 points a game. Unless Howard or Texas Southern was on the other sideline, the Scarlet Knights sputtered frequently through the first six games. Army will press the issue with an underrated front seven that’s led by high-energy DE Josh McNary and LB Stephen Anderson. McNary is third in the country in sacks and tackles for loss, while Anderson leads the team with 57 tackles.
Who to watch: Rutgers true freshman QB Tom Savage has yet to play a game away from Piscataway, making Friday another important step in his apprenticeship. He’s done a nice job of managing the last two games and has thrown just one interception in 124 passing attempts. Mature beyond his years, he grows with each game, lending the hope the program will have its second straight four-year starter at the position.
What will happen: Go ahead and bank on a defensive struggle that’s long on big hits and very short on big plays. While neither team will have much success with the ball, Rutgers will eventually be able to move Army off the line of scrimmage with its edge at the point of attack, creating space for Joe Martinek and Kordell Young to run. It won’t be technically sound, but the Scarlet Knights will get out of Michie Stadium with win No. 5.
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 27 … Army 16 ... Line: Rutgers -9.5
Must See Rating: (Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer’s Cut) 5 ... This Is It 1) … 1.5
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Boston College (5-2) at Notre Dame (4-2),3:30 EST, Saturday, NBC, October 24

Why to watch: Boston College and Notre Dame meet for the 19th time in a rivalry that’s been dominated recently by the Eagles. They’ve taken the last six meetings, including three of the last four in South Bend. Boston College has been one of the pleasant surprises out of the ACC, shaking off a chaotic offseason to move within a win of bowl eligibility and sitting atop the Atlantic Division. The high point to date came last weekend, a 52-20 ambush of NC State and former head coach Tom O’Brien. For the Irish, it might take a while for the sting to wear off from last weekend’s gut-wrenching eighth consecutive loss to USC. It was on the doorstep of overtime, but was unable to punch it in on the Trojans. Any fading hopes for a BCS bowl berth will require sweeping through the second half schedule.
Why Boston College might win: There’s a reason why Notre Dame has lost a pair of games this season—the defense isn’t close to where it needs to be. You can run on the Irish, and the pass defense is especially inept. Enter the Eagles, which are approaching a level of balance that wasn’t there earlier in the year. On the ground, RB Montel Harris is coming off a record-breaking 264-yard, five-touchdown effort in the win over the Pack. As defenses are forced to gameplan to stop the sophomore, life gets a little easier for QB Dave Shinskie. The 25-year old former pro baseball player has performed well in three of the last four games, forging a bond with rangy sophomore WR Colin Larmond.
Why Notre Dame might win: There’s a reason why the Irish is a few plays away from being perfect—QB Jimmy Clausen. Bad toe and all, he’s carried the program throughout the first half of the season, putting up huge numbers and playing at his peak late in games. He’ll be facing a Boston College defensive backfield that’s had problems over the last months shutting down Riley Skinner, Christian Ponder, and Tyrod Taylor. Plus, the Eagles have the ACC’s No. 11 pass rush, which means Clausen will have that extra tick or two to find WR Golden Tate and TE Kyle Rudolph.
Who to watch: S Kyle McCarthy has been to the Notre Dame defense what Clausen has been to the offense. A playmaker, especially in crunch time, he’s had a knack for being around the ball and making game-sealing plays throughout the first half of the year. He leads the team with 54 tackles and three interceptions, often tattooing unsuspecting receivers crossing over the middle of the field.
What will happen: Boston College’s problems on the road this season are going to continue in South Bend. Oh, the Eagles will compete and even put a scare in Notre Dame for a while, but unless Shinskie can somehow channel Clausen for four quarters, the upset isn’t going to happen. The junior will once again lead the way, throwing a couple of touchdown passes to Tate and offsetting another big day on the ground from Harris.
CFN Prediction: Notre Dame 33 … Boston College 23 ... Line: Notre Dame -9
Must See Rating: (Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer’s Cut) 5 ... This Is It 1) … 3
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Wake Forest (4-3) at Navy (5-2),3:30 EST, Saturday, October 24

Why to watch: The EagleBank Bowl: The Sequel. Alright, so it needs work, but with this being the fourth meeting between the Wake Forest and Navy in the last 24 months, somewhat of a rivalry is beginning to develop. Both schools once again have their targets set on a postseason game in December. The Demon Deacons’ quest for an ACC crown took a big hit in last week’s 38-3 setback at Clemson. Still in the hunt, they need to immediately fix what’s wrong since a wicked three-game stretch versus Miami, Georgia Tech, and Florida State awaits. Winners of four straight, the Midshipmen are on a roll, but the competition has been questionable and some of the games have been tight. A week a go, for instance, Navy needed to rally against SMU, surviving, 38-35, in overtime. With a win on Saturday, the Academy will be bowl-eligible for a personal-best seventh straight year.
Why Wake Forest might win: After wresting with the Clemson defense a week ago, the Deacons are ready to get back to being one of the ACC’s most potent offenses. Riley Skinner was awful in Death Valley, but Navy neither has the defensive backs nor the pass rush to keep the quarterback quiet a second straight week. In fact, the Middies have gone three consecutive weeks without a sack. With time, he’ll spread the ball around to playmaking receivers Marshall Williams, Chris Givens, and Devon Brown, who can all do a lot with just a little bit of daylight.
Why Navy might win: Teams that can run the ball effectively will do so against the Wake Forest defense. It had problems with Baylor, Boston College, and Clemson, and will struggle again in Annapolis. QB Ricky Dobbs has been sensational running the option, already ringing up 16 rushing touchdowns and occasionally popping a long pass to Marcus Curry or Mario Washington. Curry is also a factor in the running game, ranking No. 2 on the team behind the pitch man. If Navy controls the tempo the way it wants to, Skinner and the Wake Forest can’t put points on the board from the sidelines.
Who to watch: There’s something to be said for making the most out of an opportunity. Just ask Navy FB Vince Murray, who played so well as a replacement when Alexander Teich got hurt that he’s earned a promotion and is keeping the job. While Teich is still going to play, it’s gotten hard to keep Murray off the field after he plowed his way to 203 yards and three scores on 34 carries over the last two games.
What will happen: While it hasn’t always been time capsule material, Navy is finding a way to win and developing chemistry along the way. The option is clicking behind Dobbs, who could be a fringe Heisman contender by the time the 2010 season begins. Both schools will have their moments on offense, but when it matters most in the fourth quarter, the Middies will grind down the Deacons with their relentless running game. Navy has yet to lose in Annapolis. Wake has yet to win outside Winston-Salem. That has to count for something in a game that’ll be up for grabs in the final minutes.
CFN Prediction: Navy 31 … Wake Forest 28 ... Line: Wake Forest -3
Must See Rating: (Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer’s Cut) 5 ... This Is It 1) … 2
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