2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 9 ... Oct. 31 Games
Cincinnati
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Connecticut
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Louisville
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Pittsburgh
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Rutgers
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South
Florida |
Syracuse
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West
Virginia
Big East Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
West Virginia (6-1) at South Florida (5-2),8:00 EST, ESPN2, Friday, October 30
Why to watch: It took a heroic, last-minute burst from RB Noel Devine, but West Virginia got past Connecticut to win its fourth straight and remain unbeaten in league play. The Mountaineers are getting hot at the right time, rising to No. 21 in the second edition of the BCS rankings. With Cincinnati and Pittsburgh also playing well, however, there’s minimal room for error down the stretch. Here we go again at South Florida. For the third consecutive season, the Bulls have spiked expectations, only to quickly plummet back to Earth. In a matter of two weeks, the program has gone from Big East contender to dreams of the Meineke Car Care Bowl, losing badly to the Bearcats and the Panthers. If it can’t turn things around immediately, the season has the potential to unravel in a hurry.
Why West Virginia might win: Now that QB Jarrett Brown has settled down since the Auburn game, his lower-risk passing coupled with the explosiveness of Devine has the Mountaineers at No. 2 in the league in total offense. They’ll be facing a South Florida defense that’s flopped since the competition improved, permitting 75 points and a ton of balanced yards to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. West Virginia, on the other hand, will force the Bulls to become one-dimensional on offense, with a stingy front seven that’s leading the charge for the nation’s ninth-ranked run defense.
Why South Florida might win: Since the Bulls aren’t likely to establish the run on Friday night, the team’s fate on offense rests on the right shoulder of QB B.J. Daniels. The redshirt freshman won’t be intimidated by what he sees on the other side of the line. Decent passing teams have had success against the West Virginia pass defense, especially on crossing patterns. Heck, the mediocre ones aren’t faring too poorly either after Connecticut’s Cody Endres threw for 378 yards and a couple of scores. Now five games into his tenure, Daniels has the experience and strong right arm to connect with speedy Dontavia Bogan and Carlton Mitchell for game-changing plays downfield.
Who to watch: A concern heading into the season, the West Virginia O-line has done a bang-up throughout the year. It’ll get one of its stiffest tests against a South Florida front that’s disappeared of late. Blessed with so much talent, like ends George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul, the Bulls have to do more than just the one sack they managed in the loss to Pittsburgh last Saturday.
What will happen: Does South Florida have enough fight left in it to reverse the recent trajectory? Probably not. The Bulls and the Mountaineers are heading in opposite directions, a trend that’s likely to continue. West Virginia is too fast on defense to bow to an average USF offense relying too heavily on a rookie behind center. Devine will take care of business on offense, rushing for more than 100 yards and improving his push toward postseason honors.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 28 … South Florida 20 ... Line: ???
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 3
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Cincinnati (7-0) at Syracuse (3-4),12:00 EST, ESPNU, Saturday, October 31
Why to watch: Will Cincinnati’s Tony Pike play this week in the Carrier Dome? Will it matter? Since the star quarterback injured his wrist two weeks ago, the Bearcats haven’t skipped a beat in wins over South Florida and Louisville to remain unbeaten and in the hunt for more than just a Big East crown. If they can survive this road trip, they’ll spend the next month trying to remain perfect in front of the Queen City crowd. Though there haven’t been any signature moments, Syracuse has made progress in its first season with Doug Marrone at the helm. The talent isn’t there to be an upper-division team in the league quite yet, but by beating Akron a week ago, the Orange pulled to within a game of the .500 mark. A visit from a high-ranking team, affords Marrone and his kids an opportunity to make a national splash and accelerate the building process.
Why Cincinnati might win: Whether it’s been Pike or Zach Collaros at the controls, the offense has been sharp, averaging 40 points a game and getting support from the backs and receivers. The Bearcats can hurt you on the ground with Isaiah Pead or through the air with Armon Binns and Mardy Gilyard. This is a very tall order for a Syracuse defense allowing 27 points a game and struggling mightily in pass defense. Its exploits not relegated to one side of the ball, Cincy also leads the nation in sacks, getting a constant push from DT Derek Wolfe and ends Alex Daniels and Ricardo Mathews.
Why Syracuse might win: Since there are not many places to attack Cincinnati, the Orange will attempt to control the running game on both sides of the ball. On offense, it’ll lean on senior RB Delone Carter, who’s coming off a career-day, to extend drives and keep the ‘Cat offense idling on the sidelines. Defensively, Syracuse is No. 6 nationally against the run, holding opponents to 2.6 yards a carry. With the middle clogged by NT Arthur Jones and LB Derrell Smith, the Orange will be able to neutralize the multi-dimensional capacity that’s helped make it so prolific this fall.
Who to watch: Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly has deservedly gotten loads of accolades this season, but save a bouquet or two for first-year defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, who has done a remarkable job. He’s taken a defense that began the season with one returning starter, S Aaron Webster, and transformed it into one of the nation’s stingiest units. Under his tutelage, players, like linebackers JK Schaffer and Curtis Young, have emerged into borderline all-stars. There’s something wrong if Diaco isn’t one of the favorites for the Broyles Award, given to the nation’s best assistant.
What will happen: Everyone is waiting for that clunker out of Cincinnati, but it just doesn’t happen. The Bearcats have been ultra-consistent, with a razor focus, never looking beyond the task at hand. While Syracuse can be feisty at home, Cincy is playing too well to squander what lies ahead. It’ll turn its speedsters loose on the indoor carpet, racing past the Orange for a double-digit win.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 35 … Syracuse 16 ... Line: ???
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 2
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Rutgers (5-2) at Connecticut (4-3),12:00 EST, ESPN Gameplan, Saturday, October 31
Why to watch: Less than a week after the murder of CB Jasper Howard, Connecticut put up a valiant effort in Morgantown before falling, 28-24, to West Virginia. Few would deny that this was truly a moral victory for the Huskies, whose heads and hearts were clearly being tugged in different directions. Some sense of normalcy will be sought in this week’s first home game since the tragedy occurred. Rutgers got to 5-2 with a workmanlike 27-10 win over Army on the Hudson. Although the Scarlet Knight record looks good on paper, you’ll give up before finding the quality win so far this season. That’ll change if they can survive in East Hartford, their first conference road trip of the year.
Why Rutgers might win: Since getting ambushed by Cincinnati in the opener, the Scarlet Knight pass defense has stiffened, allowing just five touchdown passes in six games. The secondary has gotten plenty of support up front from ends George Johnson and Jonathan Freeny, who’ll test an average Connecticut offensive line. When QB Cody Endres gets flustered, he’s liable to make mistakes, which he did three times in West Virginia last week. Bruising RB Joe Martinek will batter a Husky run defense that’s fallen off badly over the last three weeks.
Why Connecticut might win: Like UConn, Rutgers, too, is having issues stopping the run. Pittsburgh and Army have rolled up 420 yards on the Scarlet Knights over the last two weekends. That’s an open invitation for the Huskies to feed backs Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon all afternoon. The pair has each gone for about 600 yards and seven touchdowns, ensuring that both are fresh at the end of the game. The Husky defense, led by linebackers Lawrence Wilson and Greg Lloyd, is still a bend-don’t-break variety that won’t be exposed by Rutgers true freshman QB Tom Savage.
Who to watch: Who’s got Lindsey Witten? That’ll be the main question all week for a Rutgers offensive line that’s had problems in pass protection. In his senior year with the Huskies, Witten has evolved into one of the nation’s better pass rushers, racking up a league-high 10.5 sacks and commanding double-teams since bursting out of the gate in September. If the 6-5, 260-pounder is allowed to get in Savage’s face, it’ll be a long day for the Scarlet Knight attack.
What will happen: Just days after burying Howard, expect the atmosphere to be every bit as emotional as it was last week in Morgantown. Not only is there special meaning to this game for the Huskies, but they’re a more complete football team than Rutgers. The defense will rise up for its best game in weeks, and the combination of Dixon and Todman will account for 150 yards and two touchdowns in the win.
CFN Prediction: Connecticut 24 … Rutgers 16 ... Line: ??
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 2
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Arkansas State (2-4) at Louisville (2-5),3:30 EST, Saturday, October 31
Why to watch: Battered and bruised on both sides of the ball, Louisville is fading fast for a third consecutive season. Losers of two straight to Connecticut and Cincinnati by an average score of 40-17, it’s hard to fathom that this was the Big East representative in the Orange Bowl just three years ago. The vultures circling around head coach Steve Kragthorpe are getting hungrier with each passing week. Arkansas State ended a nasty four-game losing streak, beating Florida International at home, 27-10. The three prior defeats, however, were by six points or less, so this Red Wolves team will battle. One of those losses came at unbeaten Iowa, another indication of their potential and resiliency.
Why Arkansas State might win: Motivation. While the Red Wolves are loaded with it in these types of games, where does Louisville locate its reason to keep forging ahead? Arkansas State also has a pretty nice combination of veterans in the backfield, something the injury-riddled Cards can no longer boast. Corey Leonard is a dual-threat veteran, who can beat average defenses with his accurate throws and nifty feet; in last week’s win, he went for 120 yards on 15 carries. Behind him is reliable RB Reggie Arnold, who also went over 100 yards, the 16th time that’s happened in his career.
Why Louisville might win: Yeah, RB Victor Anderson left last week’s game with a shoulder injury and the quarterbacks are a MASH unit, but that just means other Cardinals will have to step up. Darius Ashley looked good in Anderson’s place, running for 67 yards on 13 carries, and the receivers are deep and talented. Scott Long, Doug Beaumont, and Josh Chichester, in particular, will create matchup problems for an ordinary Arkansas State pass defense. In the three games with quality opponents this fall, the Red Wolves have yielded nine touchdown passes and over 1,000 yards through the air.
Who to watch: Whether it’s Justin Burke or Adam Froman behind center, Louisville’s biggest concern will be keeping Arkansas State DE Alex Carrington out of the backfield. One of the Red Wolves who’s generated interest from NFL scouts, he has the pass rush skills to disrupt the Cardinal passing attack. Louisville is last in the Big East in sacks allowed, so pass protection will be an issue week-in and week-out.
What will happen: Louisville doesn’t get many opportunities to be the aggressor. It’ll capitalize on that chance before the reality of Big East play resumes. It won’t be pretty—or easy—but the Cardinals will survive behind a running game that’ll wear down the Red Wolves in the second. If Anderson is not back to full strength, Ashley will relish being the feature back, going for 100 yards for the first time in his brief career.
CFN Prediction: Louisville 27 … Arkansas State 23 ... Line: ??
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) …
1.5
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