2009 ACC Fearless Predictions
Week 9 ... Oct. 31 Games
Atlantic
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Boston College |
Clemson |
Florida
State |
Maryland |
NC
State |
Wake
Forest
Coastal
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Duke
| Georgia
Tech |
Miami
| North
Carolina |
Virginia |
Virginia Tech
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Game of the Week
North Carolina (4-3) at Virginia Tech (5-2),7:30 EST, ESPN, Thursday, October 29
Why to watch: While there’s more than a month still left in the season, North Carolina is well on its way to becoming one of the most disappointing programs of 2009. A trendy choice to win the ACC this fall, the Tar Heels have yet to win a conference game after three lousy attempts. The bottom fell out last Thursday night after an 18-point, third-quarter lead on Florida State was transformed into a heartbreaking 30-27 defeat. Virginia Tech has had a week to get over its 28-23 loss to Georgia Tech, which ended hopes of a national championship appearance and opened up the Coastal Division race. Knowing they have no margin for error and could require some help, the Hokies are focused on winning the final five games and hoping for the best.
Why North Carolina might win: Although the defense went AWOL late in last week’s game, the unit has generally been consistent throughout the year. A rock against the run and able to get steady pressure from DE Robert Quinn and DT Marvin Austin, the Heels are going to test a Virginia Tech offensive line that continues to struggle in pass protection. There’s speed and talent everywhere on this unit, including linebackers Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter, and defensive backs Charles Brown and Kendric Burney. Prior to the Florida State debacle, Carolina had held five of six opponents to no more than 17 points.
Why Virginia Tech might win: Carolina’s problems on offense are not going to get better in Blacksburg on a Thursday night. The Heels have been floundering all season, ranking at the bottom of the ACC in most major categories. QB T.J. Yates is a mess, coming off a 64-yard effort against a bad Florida State pass defense. With no threat of a passing game to worry about, the Hokies will instruct linebackers Cody Grimm, Barquell Rivers, and Jake Johnson to stop RB Shaun Draughn. Tech is yielding just 19 points a game, and will have few problems forcing Carolina into a slew of three-and-outs.
Who to watch: Although Hokie QB Tyrod Taylor will never be asked to be a 3,000-yard passer, has anyone noticed that he leads the league in passing efficiency and is No. 6 nationally? He’s made tremendous strides as a passer, cutting down on bad reads and picking his spots to keep defenses honest. He has a live arm and a nice set of athletic receivers in order to prevent opponents from ganging up on RB Ryan Williams.
What will happen: North Carolina is facing an extremely difficult spot to turn its season around. Virginia Tech is motivated, well-rested, and playing where it never loses on weeknights. The Hokies will dominate on both sides of the ball, suffocating the impotent Heel attack and getting a nice blend of Williams and Taylor on offense. By the time Tech builds a double-digit lead, this game will be over.
CFN Prediction: Virginia Tech 28 … North Carolina 13 ... Line: Virginia Tech -16.5
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) …
3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
NC State (3-4) at Florida State (3-4),12:00 EST, Saturday, ESPN Gameplan, October 31
Why to watch: Although Florida State isn’t back, it sure did stage an important turnaround last Thursday in Chapel Hill. Trailing 24-6 in the third quarter, the Seminoles channeled the glory days for a brief moment, stunning Carolina, 30-27. Was it a flash of brilliance or the beginning of a rally? We’ll all get a much better read on this program’s trajectory over the next few weeks. There’s no debating where NC State is headed these days. After peaking with a comeback win over Pittsburgh on Sept. 26, the Wolfpack has yet to taste victory, dropping three straight league games. Even worse, it was blown out by Duke and Boston College, of all teams, in the two weeks leading up to last Saturday’s bye. If the bounce back doesn’t happen in Tallahassee, this could wind up being a lost year for Tom O’Brien and his squad.
Why NC State might win: Florida State shut down Carolina QB T.J. Yates a week ago. Russell Wilson is not Yates. And the Seminole pass defense is still among the worst in the nation. With its back against the wall, the Pack will hand the ball to its most reliable weapon and ask him to win the game. He’s the type of leader and dual-threat, who just might do it, too. He’s also the catalyst of the nation’s No. 26 passing attack, with the help of receivers Jarvis Williams and Owen Spencer, TE George Bryan, and RB Toney Baker swinging out of the backfield.
Why Florida State might win: In an interesting battle between athletic signal-callers, the edge goes to the Seminoles. Christian Ponder is quietly having a fantastic junior season, ranking No. 9 nationally in passing efficiency and basically carrying the team on his back. In the last three weeks alone, he’s thrown for eight touchdowns and well over 1,000 yards. He’s also a threat to run the ball on a Wolfpack defense that has been miserable over the last month. The nation’s 100th-ranked pass efficiency defense also yielded 264 yards on the ground to Boston College’s Montel Harris two weeks ago. A soft NC State offensive line will have problems containing the size and quickness of the ‘Nole front seven.
Who to watch: Instead of having one go-to receiver, Ponder has done a commendable job of spreading the ball around to a number of different hands. As if the NC State secondary doesn’t have enough headaches already, it’ll have to contend with a wave of possibilities that includes Bert Reed, Rod Owens, Richard Goodman, and Jarmon Fortson. If you shut one of these guys down, another will emerge in his place.
What will happen: Regardless of what happened in Chapel Hill, no one believes Florida State is suddenly vintage Florida State again. Still, that performance last Thursday night was the kind of shot-in-the-arm that could last for a while, especially versus a slumping Wolfpack team. Ponder will remain hot at the expense of a flimsy NC State defense, accounting for three touchdowns in a game that’ll be out of reach by late in the third quarter.
CFN Prediction: Florida State 37 … NC State 21 ... Line: Florida State -7.5
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Coastal Carolina (3-4) at Clemson (4-3),1:30 EST, Saturday, October 31
Why to watch: Over the last two weeks, Clemson has salvaged a once-fading season with a blowout of Wake Forest and a thrilling overtime upset of Miami. Now back over the .500 mark for the first time in a month, the Tigers have taken firm control of an Atlantic Division that no one seemed to want this fall. They’ll get a timely break this weekend before beginning a three-game stretch that’ll control their postseason fate. So far, the Coastal Carolina rode trip has not gone well, losing to Liberty and Stony Brook as the Big South portion of the schedule kicked into high gear. Though also located in South Carolina, this will be Chanticleers’ first meeting with cross-state Clemson.
Why Coastal Carolina might win: Last week, Clemson knocked off Miami in the extra session. Next week, it hosts Florida State, with the Atlantic Division potentially at stake. How in the world are the Tigers expected to get up for the Chanticleers? Coastal Carolina has played well on defense in all but the Liberty game, ranking No. 11 nationally in pass defense and yielding just 20 points a game. It’s led up front by DE Phillip Oboh, who has a league-leading 4.5 sacks.
Why Clemson might win: Things are starting to click for the Tigers at an ideal time of the season. The offense has scored 78 points over the last two weeks, getting its usual production on the ground from C.J. Spiller and more support than normal from QB Kyle Parker. The defense will have no problems at all containing a Coastal Carolina offense that averages just 16 points a game and has no playmakers. Clemson was soft a week ago in Miami, but are still No. 2 in the ACC in total defense, a ranking that won’t change following this weekend.
Who to watch: Parker has the talent, but now he also has the momentum that was lacking earlier in the season. At times looking as if he might lose his job to Willy Korn, the redshirt freshman has hung in and kept learning, tossing four touchdowns and one pick in the last two victories. His last touchdown, a gorgeous strike to Jacoby Ford to beat the ‘Canes in overtime, could prove to be a launching point for the young quarterback.
What will happen: The next best thing to a bye week, Clemson will use the visit from Coastal Carolina as a chance to stay loose and add to the winning streak. With next week’s huge visit from Florida State looming, it’ll make quick work of the Chanticleers, building a big lead and emptying the bench shortly after halftime.
CFN Prediction: Clemson 48 … Coastal Carolina 0 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 1
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Miami (5-2) at Wake Forest (4-4),3:30 EST, Saturday, ABC, October 31
Why to watch: For the first time in this resurgent campaign, Miami finds itself in a hole following an emotional and crushing loss to Clemson. Yeah, the ‘Canes lost to Virginia Tech in September, but they quickly bounced back and as recently as last week, were still considered by many to be the favorite to win the ACC. Not any longer. The 40-37 thrill-ride leaves the program needing help in order to catch Georgia Tech in the Coastal Division. This is still a very young squad, so it’s up to the staff to make sure the Clemson doesn’t wind up costing it more than one game. In an up-and-down season in Winston-Salem, Wake Forest is currently trying to dig itself out of a hole. The Demon Deacons, losers of two straight to Clemson and Navy, are in danger of fading completely out of the bowl picture, especially with Georgia Tech and Florida State in the on-deck circle.
Why Miami might win: The Wake Forest defense has been mediocre all year, laboring to stop the run and allowing too many big plays through the air. Enter the Hurricanes, which have been able to establish a nice mix of Jacory Harris’ passing and the running of Graig Cooper and Javarris James. Miami ranks in the top half of the ACC in most statistical categories, despite a few too many picks from Harris. On the other hand, what’s happened to the Deacon attack? Once the backbone of this year’s team, it’s produced just 13 points over the last two weeks.
Why Wake Forest might win: At home, the Demon Deacons are a completely different team, winning four of five games, and playing markedly better with the ball. It’s about time for QB Riley Skinner to rekindle the spark he had earlier in the season, distributing the ball to playmakers Devon Brown, Marshall Williams, and Chris Givens. As long as you stay away from CB Brandon Harris, the Hurricanes are beatable through the air, getting burned repeatedly by Clemson rookie Kyle Parker on Saturday night.
Who to watch: Miami DT Allen Bailey has begun to assert himself, troubling news for the Wake Forest offensive line. A tackle, with the quickness and get-off of most ends, he’s often a little too quick and a little strong for the guard trying to stand him up. He leads the Hurricanes in tackles for loss and sacks, picking up a pair last weekend, and has the skill set to disrupt the Deacons’ desire to establish the run.
What will happen: Although Harris isn’t the total package quite yet, he brings a level of poise and stability to Miami that’ll keep it from dwelling on last week’s heartbreaker. Wake Forest may play better now that it’s back at Groves Stadium, but the Hurricanes are the better team. They’ll prove it on Saturday afternoon, keeping the chains moving on offense and preventing Skinner from becoming a one-man gang for the Deacons.
CFN Prediction: Miami 31 … Wake Forest 23 ... Line: Miami -7
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 9,
Part 2 (Duke at Virginia, & more)