2009 Big 12 Fearless Predictions
Week 9 ... Oct. 31, Part 2
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Oklahoma
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Texas A&M
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Texas Tech
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2009 CFN Big 12 Expert Picks & Roundup
Big 12 Fearless Predictions
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Week 9, Part 1
Iowa State (5-3) at Texas A&M (4-3), 3:30 EST, Saturday, October 31
Why to watch: Good luck trying to figure these teams out. Iowa State has been stunningly decent over a six game stretch, winning four of them, with the two losses coming in a last second heartbreaker against Kansas State and a shootout to Kansas. The win over Baylor was nice, but the shocker, and the season-maker, came last week with a 9-7 upset over Nebraska with eight takeaways and almost no offensive production. Everything was going against the Cyclones; the team was sick, top playmakers QB Austen Arnuad and RB Alexander Robinson were out, and Nebraska was coming off a poor performance and in need of a win. Now the Cyclones are close to bowl eligibility and can stay alive in the North race with a win. Texas A&M has had an even stranger season. Just when it seemed comfortable to believe that the Aggies could only beat bad teams like Utah State and UAB, and coming off an embarrassing 62-14 loss to Kansas State, they blasted Texas Tech 52-30 to get the fan base fired up again in hope that this really could be a good season. Winnable games against Colorado and Baylor are still on the slate to offset dates with Oklahoma and Texas, and if A&M can pull off this home win, it can all but be assured of a bowl game.
Why Iowa State might win: Iowa State doesn’t turn the ball over on a regular basis. While there have been 15 giveaways this year, five of the interceptions came against Iowa and six of the fumbles came in the first three games. In the last five games, Iowa State has turned it over a mere three times, with two of the fumbles coming against Kansas State. Meanwhile, the defense has been tremendous at forcing mistakes in bunched. Beyond the eight takeaways against Nebraska, ISU forced five Kent State turnovers, three Baylor fumbles, and has picked off at least one pass in every game. On the flip side, the Cyclones shouldn’t worry too much about turning the ball over with Arnaud, who’s back from his hand injury, certain to get plenty of time. A&M’s defense needs the pass rush to work to slow down anyone’s offense, and Iowa State leads the nation in sacks allowed.
Why Texas A&M might win: Yeah, Iowa State forces turnovers, but A&M doesn’t get the ball away. There was the blip on the radar, the five turnover game against Kansas State, but that was about it. QB Jerrod Johnson is ultra-careful with the ball and has only thrown three picks on the year with all coming against the Jayhawks. Iowa State doesn’t have nearly enough firepower to keep up if A&M’s attack starts rolling, and with the Aggie passing game ripping off 300 yards or more in five of the seven games, this could be a shootout. A wild game with more points and more yards favors A&M.
Who to watch: Can the A&M running game do that again? After being held to -13 rushing yards by Kansas State, A&M tore off 321 yards and six scores against Texas Tech with Christine Michael, one of the teams’ top recruits, ripping off 121 yards and two scores, and Cyrus Gray ran for 131 yards and three scores. Gray, a star recruit two years ago, has a good combination of skills with decent pop for his 5-10, 188-pound size inside and the speed and quickness to bounce it outside. Michael has tremendous home-run hitting speed and the power to pound away inside when needed. The tools are out of central casting; he has the perfect size, speed, and weight room strength. These two are good enough to balance out the offense the rest of the way.
What will happen: Iowa State finds ways to pull off wins with a solid defense and just enough offense to get by, but A&M’s offense has too much firepower, but the Cyclones will keep it close with some big plays.
CFN Prediction: Texas A&M 38 … Iowa State 27 ... Line: Texas A&M -7
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 3
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Kansas (5-2) at Texas Tech (5-3), 3:30 EST, Saturday, October 31, ABC
Why to watch: Is there anything more fun than a cranky Mike Leach? The Texas Tech head coach was in rare form in a press conference after the 52-30 home loss to Texas A&M, complaining about the players’ “fat girlfriends” being too much of a negative influence, but his bigger problem was a run defense that got ripped up by the Aggies. Meanwhile, Kansas has gone from possible North favorite to also-ran with a rough loss to Colorado followed up by a blowout loss at home to Oklahoma. However, the division is there for the taking, and even though the Jayhawks still have to go to Texas, they have a win over Iowa State, get Nebraska and Missouri at home, and play Kansas State next week. If KU wins every game but the date in Austin, there’s a good chance of owing the tie-breaker and winning the North. Texas Tech is out of the conference title chase, but this is a must-win to keep the season from sinking into the tank with a road trip to Oklahoma State up in two weeks followed up by the Oklahoma showdown. No matter what the implications, this should be a fun, wild game with Texas Tech averaging a nation-leading 419 passing yards and KU ranking fifth averaging 329 yards through the air. Anything less than 80 combined points and 800 passing yards will be a disappointment.
Why Kansas might win: Kansas can run a little bit. The Texas Tech run defense has been hit or miss with most teams bombing away to try to keep up the pace, but when someone wants to run, like Texas Tech did last week, there has been few problems. KU should be able to throw the ball like Houston did, with Case Keenum throwing for 435 yards in the win, but after last week, with A&M running for 321 yards and six scores, it’s going to be tempting for the Jayhawks to pound away. The 1-2 rushing punch of Jake Sharp and Toben Opurum should be able to combine for more than 150 yards if KU commits to the run.
Why Texas Tech might win: Kansas couldn’t stop Landry Jones and the Oklahoma offense and had problems stopping Colorado’s ground game. The secondary hasn’t faced anything like it’s about to deal with, at least outside of its own practices, but if Texas Tech wants to try to run the ball a bit, it can. It’s not like the Red Raiders completely abandon the ground game, even though it’s 118th in the nation in rushing offense; it just chooses not to use it. Against Houston’s poor run defense, Tech ran for 163 yards and three scores and was able to run for 185 yards on Kansas State. The backs are in place to provide a little more balance in what’s sure to be a shootout, and the offense might need all the help it can get from various sources with …
Who to watch: … Seth Doege starting at quarterback. A great recruit last year, the 6-2, 207-pound redshirt freshman is an accurate passer who can throw it all over the field. However, he didn’t play for more than three years after missing time hurt over his final two years of high school. The 2,439-yard, 27 touchdown sophomore season, and his upside, were enough to get him interest from several big-time programs, and now he might become the program’s next big thing. It wasn’t like Taylor Potts was awful after suffering a serious concussion, but he’s bearing the brunt of the blame after throwing two interceptions, along with 315 yards and two touchdowns, in the loss to A&M. With Steven Sheffield out with a leg injury, Doege, who stepped in and completed 18-of-25 passes for 146 yards and two scores last week, will get his chance.
What will happen: There will be lots of big pass plays, monster stats on both sides, and a very big, and very necessary win for the Red Raiders. Doege won’t always be sharp, but he won’t be the story. The fired up Tech defense, called out after a rough outing, will get to KU QB Todd Reesing just enough to disrupt the timing of the Jayhawk attack for a few drives, and that will be enough. Kansas hasn’t shown it can play with a strong team, Iowa State doesn’t count, while Tech won’t play that poorly two weeks in a row.
CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 52 … Kansas 42 ... Line: Texas Tech -7
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 3.5
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Kansas State (5-3) at Oklahoma (4-3), 7:00 EST, Saturday, October 31
Why to watch: If you were told before the season that this game would showcase a Big 12 division leader, you would’ve obviously have thought Oklahoma and not Kansas State. After a 20-6 win over Colorado, coming on the heels of a 62-14 win over Texas A&M, Kansas State, the same team that lost to Texas Tech 66-14, took over the lead in the North. But now the piper must be paid with a rough final four games against OU, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. With a good run defense and timely special teams and offense, the Wildcats haven’t been too bad. And now they get to show if they really can play. Oklahoma overcame the loss to Texas, and the end of the Sam Bradford career, with a rock-solid 35-13 win over Kansas in Lawrence. The Sooners are still in the Big 12 title chase and could get into a similar situation like last year if Oklahoma State beats Texas this week. By winning out there’s a chance for another three-way tie for the South title, and while the Sooners would lose out in the tie-breaker, unlike last year, it would still be a nice reward considering all of the team’s injury problems and all the adversity. But that would require a lot of help, and OU still has to prove it can be consistent with Landry Jones under center.
Why Kansas State might win: What happened to the Oklahoma running game? With Bradford out, the offensive line struggling, and the backs not getting much room to move, the Sooners haven’t been consistent on the ground running for 197 yards against Baylor and getting stuffed for -16 yards against Texas the week after. Last week, the passing game was solid, but OU couldn’t get the running attack moving getting just 85 yards and two scores on 31 carries against KU. The Wildcat defense hasn’t always been great, but the defensive line has been one of the team’s strengths and it should hold its own against a struggling OU offensive front. KSU is allowing just 101 rushing yards per game.
Why Oklahoma might win: Kansas State has faced two teams that can throw, Texas Tech and Texas A&M, and gave up 554 yards and eight touchdowns to the Red Raiders and 314 yards and two scores to the Aggies. Oklahoma might not be the juggernaut of last year, or anywhere near it, but the passing game has been effective in the hands of Jones, while the defense should be able to pick up the slack if the O sputters at all. KSU needs to run to win, and it doesn’t have a chance to produce on the ground against an OU run defense allowing just 70 yards per game. This is a bad matchup for the Wildcats.
Who to watch: Kansas State has to generate pressure on Jones early and can’t let him get comfortable for long stretches. The Wildcat defensive front has done a nice job of getting into the backfield, led by senior Jeffrey Fitzgerald, who has six sacks on the year with five of them coming in the last three games. While he’s not a household name, he’s on the radar of the NFL scouts with 6-4, 280-pound size and tremendous quickness. Just when he was about to become a superstar at Virginia, he left school and ended up in Manhattan where he’s just now scratching the surface of how good he can become.
What will happen: Uh oh. Kansas State will get down early and will likely have to throw. That’s not a plus. Oklahoma at home is unstoppable, and after rolling over KU on the road last week, will come up with a second straight impressively easy win.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma 40 … Kansas State 16 ... Line: Oklahoma -26
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 3
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Week 9, Part 1
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