2009 Big 12 Fearless Predictions
Week 9 ... Oct. 31
North
Colorado |
Iowa St
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Kansas
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Kansas
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Missouri
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Nebraska
South
Baylor |
Oklahoma
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Oklahoma
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Texas
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Texas A&M
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Texas Tech
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2009 CFN Big 12 Expert Picks & Roundup
Big 12 Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week
Texas (7-0) at Oklahoma State (6-1), 8:00 EST, Saturday, October 31, ABC
Why to watch: Fans of Iowa, Cincinnati, USC, and anyone else hoping to sneak into the top two of the final BCS rankings, get your Oklahoma State pom-poms out. The Big 12 is mediocre at best, awful at worst, and Texas is going to roll through the rest of its schedule without taking a deep breath. Yeah, maybe the game at Texas A&M could be a problem, the Aggie offense is a wild-card, but realistically, with the North in the tank and Baylor very beatable (the game on November 14th), this should be the only barrier between the Longhorns and Pasadena. Texas finally appears to be hitting its stride, and while this hasn’t always looked like a national title team, it’s No. 1 in the nation in scoring, No. 1 in run defense, and hasn’t had any problems with anyone but Oklahoma in a 16-13 win two weeks ago. But Oklahoma State is hardly going to be a pushover. Very quietly, the Cowboys are becoming what everyone was expecting to start the season, and while the offense isn’t putting up the astronomical numbers expected, it’s doing more than fine considering WR Dez Bryant has been suspended for the season and RB Kendall Hunter has been out with a knee injury.
While all the talk will be about Texas and its BCS Championship possibilities, Oklahoma State can also make a big statement in its hunt for a BCS spot. The national championship isn’t as out of the question as it might seem, even with the Cowboys currently at 14th. If they win out, that will mean they’ll have beaten Texas, Texas Tech (November 14th), Oklahoma at Oklahoma (November 28th), Georgia, Missouri, and Texas A&M. The loss to Houston might be a sticking point, but that appears to be a more acceptable defeat than USC’s loss at Washington, who isn’t likely to go to a bowl. But that’s getting way ahead of the game. For now, the Cowboys need to find a way to break the ugly hex that Texas has over them. Texas has won 11 in a row in the series, with the last OSU win coming back in 1997, and the previous win before that coming in 1944. Not only does Texas beat Oklahoma State on a regular basis, it often does it soul-crushing fashion. There have been wild comebacks, tight battles, and blowouts over the last 11 years, with Texas winning the last two games by a total of seven points, and this year’s showdown should be terrific again.
Why Texas might win: Yeah, Oklahoma State is on a five game winning streak, but part of that mix is Rice, Grambling, and a dead Baylor team. The Missouri win was nice, but not that big a deal, making the win at Texas A&M the best of the bunch. The secondary has been mediocre and the defensive line hasn’t done enough to pressure the quarterback. No, this might not be the ultra-efficient Texas passing attack of last year, but it’s still effective and the receivers are far better than the OSU defensive backs. Offensively, OSU can all but forget about running on the Longhorn defense. UT gave up 101 yards and a score in the season opener against ULM, and no one else has gotten into the end zone on the ground run for close to 100 yards since. Texas Tech netted -6 yards rushing and Oklahoma was stuffed for -16.
Why Oklahoma State might win: Texas has faced just one team that can play defense, Oklahoma, and was held to 127 passing yards and 142 on the ground. Oklahoma State’s D is nowhere near as good as OU’s, but it’s good enough to give UT more problems than Missouri’s did last week and it has enough athletes to run with the ultra-fast Longhorns. Offensively, by far, Zac Robinson is the best quarterback Texas has faced this year, outside of the few drives of Sam Bradford in the Oklahoma win. Robinson has taken his game to another level, considering he doesn’t have all his weapons around him, with a 23-of-27 day last week against Baylor with three touchdown passes and no picks, and he has only thrown three interceptions on the year. He has always been solid against Texas, throwing for 430 yards and two touchdowns in the 2007 loss, and completing 17-of-26 passes in last year’s defeat. It’s not going too far to say he’s the best quarterback in the Big 12 right now.
Who to watch: Alright, alright, that is going a bit too far. Colt McCoy has changed his game around and is just now starting to find the right groove. A runner over the first three years of his career, he has been kept in the pocket by design letting the running backs to all the work. While that has forced McCoy to not quite be the reckless, all-around baller that made him such a playmaker last year, he has been good with 14 touchdown passes. However, he has thrown one pick in every game with two against Texas Tech, after throwing eight all of last year, and considering the change in style was supposed to make him a better passer, the big numbers aren’t quite there. He doesn’t have to be special for Texas to beat OSU, but he has to be effective, mistake-free, and he has to keep the chains moving. But to have any shot at the Heisman, this is his last chance to get back on the map before it’s too late.
What will happen: Oklahoma State fans know all too well what’s going to happen. The Cowboys will get up, they’ll think that this is the year they finally get the big win, and then Texas will calmly and coolly rip out their heart. Robinson won’t be appreciably better than McCoy, and that will be the difference.
CFN Prediction: Texas 31 … Oklahoma State 27 ... Line: Texas -9.5
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 5
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Nebraska (4-3) vat Baylor (3-4) , 12:30 EST, Saturday, October 31, FSN
Why to watch: Seriously, Nebraska, what’s up? This is the best team in the Big 12 North, but it’s doing everything humanly possible to not play like it. From the bizarre blowout loss to Texas Tech at home, to the all-timer of a crazy loss to Iowa State with eight turnovers, this has been a strange past few weeks in Lincoln. Those were bad losses, but a loss to Baylor would trump both of them. The Bears went into the tank ever since QB Robert Griffin got knocked out for the year, scoring a mere 24 points in the last three games and weren’t even close against Oklahoma, Iowa State, or Oklahoma State. The back half of the schedule is a bear, with a trip to Missouri up next before hosting Texas, and while a bowl game isn’t even on the radar after all the struggles, beating Nebraska would change all of that. For the Huskers, there’s still time to turn everything back around and win the North. But with Oklahoma up next, everything has to sharpen up and come together this week, and Nebraska has to start playing like Nebraska again.
Why Nebraska might win: Baylor doesn’t have any spark of life on offense. Not only is Griffin out, but Blake Szymanski, a nice backup option, isn’t playing with a shoulder injury. Nick Florence is a nice-looking prospect, and he threw for 235 yards and a touchdown against Oklahoma State, but he’s not the type of playmaker to keep up the pace if the Huskers start scoring. At least he’s not that type of playmaker yet. For all of Nebraska’s recent issues, defense hasn’t been a problem, holding Texas Tech to 234 passing yards and limiting the Cyclones to 239 yards of total offense. If Nebraska can get any sort of a lead, it might be over.
Why Baylor might win: Baylor’s offense might stink, but it’s not like Nebraska’s attack is doing anything. The Huskers put up most of their big numbers early in the season against the Sun Belt teams on the slate, but the attack sputtered and coughed against the brand name teams like Missouri and Texas Tech, and it stalled on the opposing side of the field time and again against Virginia Tech and Iowa State. Baylor doesn’t do any one thing well, but Nebraska might provide the breaks needed to jump-start the Bear offense. If Iowa State could win with a sick team and without QB Austen Arnaud and RB Alexander Robinson, then Baylor can also pull off the upset.
Who to watch: Zac Lee has to be better … if he’s starting. The Husker quarterback to hot against Missouri in the fourth quarter, and he threw four touchdown passes against Arkansas State, but he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in the last two games and threw five picks in the two losses. He only threw one interception in the other five games, but overall, he has made more mistakes than big plays, and that means it might be time for freshman Cody Green to take over. Green was the team’s star recruit and was one of the nation’s top dual-threat prospects, and he has a world of upside. The time might be now.
What will happen: Nebraska will still be shaky, but the defense will stop the Bears cold and the Husker offense will stop making mistakes. It’s not going to be pretty, but the slide ends here.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 27 … Baylor 13 ... Line: Nebraska -13.5
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 2.5
-Free Expert Football Predictions
Missouri (4-3) at Colorado (2-5), 1:30 EST, Saturday, October 31
Why to watch: Oh come on Colorado; 20-6 to Kansas State?! Just when it seemed like it was okay to like the Buffs again, they came up with a total clunker just to make the bad season that much worse. There’s still time enough for the flaky team to turn things back around with winnable games ahead against Texas A&M and Iowa State, but there’s little margin for error now to get to a bowl game. As bad as things have been, beating Missouri would allow everyone to take a deep breath for at least another week, but to do that, the offense has to show some consistency and the defense has to come up with a clutch stop. Neither has happened this year, outside of the win over Kansas. Missouri might seem to be completely hosed with a three-game losing streak, with all the losses coming in Big 12 play, to politely bow out of the Big 12 title chase … maybe. The rest of the schedule is more than manageable with the North leaders, Kansas State and Iowa State, still to play along with a home date with Baylor and the regular-season ender against Kansas. Kansas State is all but certain to lose one other Big 12 game, and Nebraska still has a lot of work to do, so if Mizzou wins out, it could turn out to win the North after all. But that’s looking several steps ahead. Just getting by Colorado, and stopping the slide, would be enough for now.
Why Missouri might win: Even in the win over Kansas, Colorado only came up with 322 yards of total offense and didn’t do anything special but keep the chains moving. Colorado’s running game isn’t going to all of a sudden explode on a Missouri defensive front that’s been great at stuffing mediocre running games. Nevada, the nation’s leader in rushing, only came up with 218 yards, and no one else has rushed for more than 131. Missouri lost its three games because Nebraska got red hot in the fourth quarter, Oklahoma State got a strong day from QB Zac Robinson, and Colt McCoy was brilliant last week. Colorado doesn’t have a quarterback that can do what Robinson and McCoy did and it doesn’t have an offense to score points in bunches on a run like the Huskers did.
Why Colorado might win: It’s not like Missouri’s offense is doing much of anything. The running game has gone in the tank after starting strong, failing to gain more than 91 yards in any of the last four games after rolling through the first three. Meanwhile, the passing game has sputtered with seven interceptions and just two touchdown passes in the last three games after throwing for 12 scores with no interceptions in the first four. Colorado’s defense has used its strong pass rush to be disruptive, and it needs it to come up big for the defense to come up with a far better effort than it has over the last three games.
Who to watch: That whole Tyler Hansen spark thing that helped the Buffs get by Kansas quickly flamed out. Regular starting QB Cody Hawkins was awful, meaning that dad, Colorado head coach Dan Hawkins, had to bench his son, but Hansen struggled in his second big chance completing just 7-of-14 passes for 89 yards and running 11 times for -8 yards in the loss to KSU. Hawkins came in and stunk it up again completing just 10-of-23 passes for 95 yards and two interceptions. With little help from the running game, and no real talent at wide receiver, the Colorado quarterbacking has to be a lot better in a big, big hurry.
What will happen: Missouri is mediocre, but Colorado is worse. The win over Kansas was a fluke. If Missouri is able to keep the turnovers to a minimum, and if it’s able to come up with a little bit of offensive balance, it should be able to come up with a key win to turn its season around.
CFN Prediction: Missouri 30 … Colorado 24 ... Line: Colorado -4
Must See Rating: (The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 3
-Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 8,
Part 2 (KSU at OU, KU at Texas Tech, & More)
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