2009 C-USA Fearless Predictions
Week 9 ... Oct. 31 Games, Part 2
East
UAB |
UCF
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East
Carolina
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Marshall
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Memphis
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Southern
Miss
West
Houston |
Rice
|
SMU
|
Tulane
|
Tulsa
|
UTEP
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9, Part 1
UAB (2-5) at UTEP (3-4),3:00 EST, Saturday, October 31
Why to watch: UTEP has been erratic since the opening bell. The only two things we know for certain about the Miners is that they’ve played much better at home than on the road lately, and they’ve got as good a shot as anyone of winning the West Division. They’ve already beaten division favorites Houston and Tulsa. Now, they just have to learn how to take care of business versus lesser opponents. UAB, for instance. After showing promise early on, the Blazers have slid into obscurity, executing poorly and failing to compete in the last two games. In the most recent loss to Marshall, the team gave up 450 yards and gave away another 135 on penalties.
Why UAB might win: Can someone get a chiropractor for QB Joe Webb because he’s hoisted the blazers on his back for far too long? The do-everything senior is ninth nationally in rushing at 117 yards a game and second in the league in total offense. He’ll get help in the passing game from TE Jeffery Anderson and WR Frantrell Forrest, his two favorite targets. UTEP ranks at the bottom of Conference USA in total defense, so Webb and his sidekicks ought to get plenty of time and room to make things happen.
Why UTEP might win: If RB Donald Buckram isn’t the league offensive player of the year, he’s not too far behind Houston QB Case Keenum. In the Miners’ two huge wins over the Cougars and Tulsa, he’s rushed for 427 yards and six touchdowns. Not only is he moving the chains and reaching the end zone, but he’s also opening things up for QB Trevor Vittatoe and the passing game. Vittatoe still has work to do, but he’s been more stable than earlier in the year and doing a better job of getting the ball in the hands of receivers Jeff Moturi and Kris Adams.
Who to watch: Since S Braxton Amy was injured, UTEP true freshman DeShawn Grayson has really come on for the defense, making at least eight tackles in each of the last three games. A good all-around athlete, with excellent tackling skills in the open field, he’ll spend much of the afternoon pressing up in order to seal off Webb’s running lanes.
What will happen: With something to play for in the second half of the season, UTEP will be extra motivated to get to .500 and remain in the West Division hunt. Buckram will once again lead the charge, rushing for 150 yards and a couple of scores in the win. Webb will put up his usual numbers, but in El Paso, where the Miners have been playing so well, it’ll take more than a solo act to deliver the upset.
CFN Prediction: UTEP 31 … UAB 21 ... Line: UTEP -6.5
Must See Rating: The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 1
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Tulane (2-5) at LSU (6-1),8:00 EST, ESPN Gameplan, Saturday, October 31
Why to watch: Tulane and LSU meet in Baton Rouge in a series that has been predictably dominated by the Tigers. While not a rivalry, there is a little extra local interest when these two Louisiana schools hook up. LSU is coming off what was arguably its best game of the season, a 31-10 demolition of Auburn. Despite the loss to Florida earlier in the month, the Tigers are still in the SEC West hunt, getting a crack at front-running Alabama next week and Ole Miss later on in November. Games, like this one, give Les Miles an opportunity to tinker with both sides of the ball before the trip to Tuscaloosa. Prepare to toe tag the Green Wave because it hasn’t shown signs of life in a month. Tulane has dropped three consecutive games, all by at least three touchdowns, a sign that the offseason has already begun for parts of the program.
Why Tulane might win: Even against lesser competition, the Tigers have not been as scary as their record, struggling to fend off the likes of Washington and Mississippi State. The offense, in particular, has been sporadic, ranking 106th nationally and averaging only 24 points a game. The Green Wave will try to out gun LSU with its top two skill position players, bruising RB Andre Anderson and big-play WR Jeremy Williams. They are the two players on the Tulane roster most likely to make the Tigers pay for looking ahead to next week’s crucial showdown at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Why LSU might win: Now that the Tiger offense has located a much-needed spark, it’ll look to capitalize against a toothless Tulane D that’s yielded 87 points over the last two weeks and has just six sacks all year. For as long as they play, QB Jordan Jefferson, RB Charles Scott, and WR Brandon LaFell will all have moments, padding their numbers without much resistance. Without the same attention as, say, Florida or Alabama, the LSU defense has been a rock, allowing less than 14 points a game. LB Harry Coleman, S Chad Jones, DE Rahim Alem, and the rest of the unit will be brutal on Green Wave redshirt freshman QB Ryan Griffin.
Who to watch: Is Tulane about to get a heavier dose of LSU backup QB Russell Shepard? The dynamic true freshman has been used in select spots and only in running situations, where his athleticism is most dangerous. He had a 69-yard touchdown run in the Auburn win, an indication he could be used more liberally in the second half of the year.
What will happen: Get the win and get the regulars off the field as quickly as possible. That’ll be the goal of the LSU players and coaching staff, with the ‘Bama game casting a tall shadow over Baton Rouge. The Tigers will treat this like an exhibition game, building more confidence on offense and getting ample reps for the second and third-stringers.
CFN Prediction: LSU 41 … Tulane 10 ... Line: LSU -36
Must See Rating: The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 2
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Marshall (5-3) at UCF (4-3),8:15 EST, ESPN, Sunday, November 1
Why to watch: It’s been five long years since Marshall qualified for a bowl game. A win in Orlando Sunday night would be a huge step toward ending that postseason futility, making the program eligible for a bowl berth. Easy winners in its last two league games, the Herd also has its sights fixed on taking an East Division that’s still a jump ball. UCF has similar goals. It, too, has taken the last two Conference USA games and can ill-afford a loss in order to remain viable for a game in December. The Knights destroyed Rice a week ago, 49-7, their biggest offensive outburst in two years.
Why Marshall might win: Take out the Virginia Tech game and the Herd defense has been terrific all year, yielding no more than 24 points in each of the last six games. That’ll continue against an impotent UCF offense that’s in the bottom half of the league in rushing, passing, and scoring. Although Marshall will give up yards, it stiffens near the end zone and hasn’t allowed more than one touchdown pass in a game since Week 2. LB Mario Harvey and S Ashton Hall are having all-conference seasons, and DE Albert McClellan must be accounted for at all times.
Why UCF might win: If you stop league-leading rusher Darius Marshall, you’ve thwarted the Herd offense. The Knights are capable of being that team. They’re No. 11 nationally against the run, using the conference’s best front seven to clog up the inside. Ends Bruce Miller and Jarvis Geathers seal off the edges, while linebackers Lawrence Young and Cory Hogue clean up the mess on the inside. A neutralized Marshall means inconsistent QB Brian Anderson outside his capabilities, a recipe for turnovers.
Who to watch: In a close, low-scoring game, whoever wins the battle on the ground will likely survive the outcome. Marshall may be the best back in the building, but UCF sophomore Brynn Harvey isn’t far behind. He’s rushed for 632 yards and six scores, and will be playing with something to prove. The Knights will need him to come up big because QB Brett Hodges is more of a caretaker than a playmaker.
What will happen: This is one of those conservative games that could be decided by one play or one miscue. It’ll be that competitive. Defense and special teams will be particularly important as both offenses struggle to extend drives and reach the end zone. Harvey will battle Marshall to a draw, with the UCF defense emerging as the hero of a pivotal home victory.
CFN Prediction: UCF 23 … Marshall 17 ... Line: UCF -4
Must See Rating: The Damned United 5 … Cougar Town 1) … 1
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- Week
9, Part 1