2009 MAC Fearless Picks - Week 10

Previews and Predictions for the Week 10 MAC Games.

2009 MAC Fearless Predictions

Week 10 ... Nov. 7 Games

East | Akron | Bowling Green | Buffalo | Kent State | Miami Univ. | Ohio | Temple
West  Ball State | Central Mich | Eastern Mich | Northern Illinois | Toledo | West Michigan

MAC Fearless Predictions
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Bowling Green (3-5) at Buffalo (3-5), 12:00 EST, Tuesday, November 3. ESPN2

Why to watch: For the winner, the hopes of staying alive in the MAC East race are still there, along with the possibility of a bowl game, but the loser is out of the hunt for everything. Buffalo came into the season with so much promise as the defending MAC champion, but a four-game losing streak early on and last week’s rough overtime loss to Western Michigan has made this an ugly season. Kent State is still on the schedule, it’s the season ender, but the loss at Temple is a killer for any dreams of repeating. Meanwhile, Bowling Green keeps bombing away, and while the nation’s fourth best passing team is coming off a loss to Central Michigan, it doesn’t play Temple, oddly enough, and beat Kent State. The last three games (Miami, Akron, and Toledo), so the pressure is on to come out of Amherst with a win and go on a big final run.
Why Bowling Green might win: The Bowling Green offensive line has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses, but it’s not going to be challenged much by a Buffalo defense that doesn’t get into the backfield. UB is last in the MAC in tackles for loss and has just ten sacks on the year; the last thing BGSU QB Tyler Sheehan needs is time to work. Buffalo’s D doesn’t force the big mistakes, unlike last year, and it’s not likely to pick off Sheehan and screw up the Falcon passing game.
Why Buffalo might win: The offense is working well. The Bulls aren’t coming through in the clutch and the defensive line needs a lot to be desired, but the offense is second in the league behind Toledo’s and the pass defense is strong enough to keep the Falcons in check for stretches. Bowling Green has the nation’s worst running game and isn’t even going to pretend to try it out. The Bulls should be just tough enough to let Sheehan get his yards, but not a lot of points.
Who to watch: While this is an NFL-caliber matchup of two of the nation’s best receivers, BGSU’s Freddie Barnes and Buffalo’s Naaman Roosevelt, the key might be UB RB Ike Nduka. Iffy at best going into last week’s game with an ankle injury, the junior ripped up Western Michigan for 172 yards and three touchdowns on just 173 carries. He’s a tough back with good enough speed to get by, and if he’s on, he’ll keep Sheehan and Barnes on the bench.
What will happen: Bowling Green has more firepower, but it doesn’t do enough with it. Buffalo has been spotty all season long and couldn’t handle Tim Hiller and the Western Michigan passing game, allowing 350 yards and two scores, but Bowling Green isn’t as good. Sheehan will get his yards, but the Bulls will get the win.
CFN Prediction: Buffalo 33 … Bowling Green 26 ... Line: Buffalo -3.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … X
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Miami University (1-8) at Temple (6-2) , 7:30 EST, Thursday, November 5

Why to watch: Temple is not only bowl eligible and it’s not just on a six-game winning streak, but it has a real shot at winning the MAC. The Owls have come up with tremendous defense, great running, and have the confidence that it can win close game after close game. Coming off a tremendous non-conference win over Navy, they need to keep the momentum going against a bad Miami team before facing a worse Akron team. And then comes the showdown against Kent State that should be for the MAC East title. Miami is getting better, finally getting head coach Mike Haywood a win to break the eight-game losing streak. After stopping Toledo in a 31-24 victory, the team is trying to screw up Temple’s dream year and make something positive happen over the final few games.
Why Miami University might win: Temple can’t throw, and it’s a liability. No one’s stopping Bernard Pierce and the Owl running game, but MU should be able to stack the line and focus all 11 guys on stopping him. Temple QB Vaughn Charlton completed just 5-of-17 passes for 37 yards and two touchdowns against Navy, and while he has improved over his time a few years ago, he still doesn’t make the passing game a plus. The MU offense is starting to get the passing game rolling and was able to blow through Toledo. Temple has faced just one scary-good passing game since playing Penn State, and Toledo backup QB Alex Pettee threw for 265 yards.
Why Temple might win: The defensive front should fly into the backfield and sit on Zac Dysert’s head. The Owls lead the MAC in defense and are great at providing the pressure needed to screw up passing games, and while Dysert is mobile, he’ll be running for his life behind a porous offensive line. Even with the win last week, Miami still has major problems that haven’t been fixed. The punting game is a disaster, the passing game isn’t efficient, and the points aren’t coming on a regular basis.
Who to watch: Welcome to the future of the MAC. Miami redshirt freshman Zac Dysert is a 6-4, 216-pound dual threat quarterback with a bomber's mentality. He finished second in Ohio high school history in passing yards with 11,174, even though he missed a few games with a broken thumb, and he is pulling the MU season up out of the muck with 348 passing yards and three scores against NIU two weeks ago and 344 yards and score last week against Toledo. On the other side, Temple RB Bernard Pierce is playing like a MAC Player of the Year candidate. The freshman is third in the nation in rushing with 267 yards and two scores last week against Navy and 212 yards and three touchdowns against Toledo. He’s now over 1,000 yards on the year with 100 yards or more in five of his last six games.
What will happen: Dysert will struggle under pressure all game long, while Pierce will run at will getting his third straight 200-yard game.
CFN Prediction: Temple 27 … Miami 16 ... Line: Temple -14
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 1.5
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Eastern Michigan (0-8) at Northern Illinois (5-3), 7:30 EST, Thursday, November 5, ESPNU

Why to watch: Northern Illinois is deep in the thick of the MAC West title chase, but it needs to be more consistent and can’t play down to the competition. The Huskies are flaky enough to blast Western Michigan and then lose to Toledo, but after beating the dregs, Miami and Akron, they get two more light scrimmages at home against Eastern Michigan and Ball State before closing out on the road at Ohio and Central Michigan. Eastern Michigan is on an eight game losing streak and continues to get worse by the week. Granted, playing Arkansas isn’t a plus, but the 63-27 loss shows just how far the program has to go to be competitive under first year head coach Ron English.
Why Eastern Michigan might win: NIU has no passing game. While Eastern Michigan might be fourth in the nation in pass defense, it’s just not that good (because everyone spends so much time running the ball). NIU won’t threaten, though, through the air with DeMarcus Grady struggling to do more than run, throw the short passes, and hand off. EMU should be able to commit all 11 players on defense to stopping the run, but ....
Why Northern Illinois might win: It won’t matter. NIU leads the MAC and is 15th in the nation running the ball getting production from RBs Chad Spann and Meco Brown, along with Grady, to pound away on a regular basis. After coming up with 275 yards against Akron, NIU should flirt with three bill against an Eagle run defense that’s dead last in America allowing 277 yards per game. Everyone’s getting fat on the EMU defense, and NIU should dominate the front lines.
Who to watch: How bad is Eastern Michigan’s season going? The top player has been punter Zach Johnson, who leads the MAC with a 41.7-yard average, but he’s out with an undisclosed injury. That means it’ll be up to Patrick Treppa to try to keep the high-octane NIU running game pinned deep. He was fine against Arkansas, but with EMU providing no help in coverage, he has to be fantastic in placements. NIU punt returner Tommy Davis is having a nice freshman season averaging just under 9.5 yards per try. He’s been consistently strong.
What will happen: NIU should be able to run at will and control the game and the clock. EMU will try to bomb away to stay alive, will give away at least three picks, and will see the game open up in the fourth.
CFN Prediction: Northern Illinois 34 … Eastern Michigan 17 ... Line: Northern Illinois -21
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 1.5
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Western Michigan (4-5) at Michigan State (4-5), 12:00 EST, Saturday, November 7, Big 10 Network

Why to watch: Who’s going to pull up out of the nosedive? Michigan State already blew a game against a MAC team, collapsing against Central Michigan in an improbable 29-27 loss, and now it needs to beat WMU after losing two straight to Iowa and Minnesota. The Spartans could very easily be 7-2 right now with one play coming between them and wins over CMU, Notre Dame, and Iowa, but good teams win those games. MSU is good, but this isn’t the great team many expected it would be early in the season. Western Michigan has been just as big a disappointment, although at a MAC level. The passing game has been fine, QB Tim Hiller has had his moments, but the defense has been a disaster and the overall play has been spotty. The best win this year was an overtime battle against a mediocre Buffalo team, but with layups against Eastern Michigan and Ball State to finish up the season, an upset this week would likely mean a 7-5 finish and a possible bowl game. MSU goes to Purdue next week and finishes up with Penn State.
Why Western Michigan might win: The Michigan State secondary has been awful. The pass rush has done its part to provide pressure, but the defensive backs are getting burned way too easily and the linebackers are struggling against backs taking short passes and turning them into big gains. Minnesota was without star WR Eric Decker and threw for 416 yards and five scores last week. Only Montana State, Illinois, and Iowa threw for under 200 yards, while the Spartans have allowed more than 300 yards three times. WMU has a banged up receiving corps, but Hiller has the ability to drop 300 yards on anyone if he gets hot.
Why Michigan State might win: The Spartan quarterbacks will get all day to throw. Kirk Cousins has taken over the starting job with Keith Nichol barely getting playing time, and he should get nice and comfy against a non-existent WMU pass rush that has come up with a mere ten sacks on the year. On the flip side, the Spartan pass rush should drop Hiller at least four times for sacks and should come up with several big hits. MSU has the Big Ten’s No. 1 passing game, and it should roll at will at a WMU pass defense that’s allowing 250 yards per game. However, the one fly in the ointment could be ...
Who to watch: … the banged up MSU offensive line. Minnesota battered and bruised the Spartans with RB Larry Caper suffering a concussion and safety Danny Fortener also knocked out with a head injury, but the biggest losses were on the O line where Joel Nitchman suffered a knee injury. Already without starting right guard J’Michael Deane for the last several weeks with a leg problem, the last thing MSU needs to be doing this late in the season is shuffle around the offensive front. Meanwhile, Edwin Baker should take on the lion’s share of the running duties if Caper isn’t able to go.
What will happen: Both teams are reeling, and this will be a big test of MSU head coach Mark Dantonio to see if he can get his team’s sprits back up. There will be tons of passing and several big plays, but the MSU pass rush will be the difference. WMU doesn’t have the weapons with receivers Jordan White and Juan Nunez suffering ankle injuries.
CFN Prediction: Michigan State 34 … Western Michigan 20 ... Line: Michigan State -18
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2
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Kent State (5-4) at Akron (1-7) , 3:30 EST, Saturday, November 7

Why to watch: At 4-1 in MAC play and with three straight wins, including nice victories over Ohio and Western Michigan, all Kent State has to do is not blow the layup and it has a shot at the title against Temple in two weeks. There will be more work to do with a season ender against Buffalo, but with the way the Golden Flashes are playing, they should play for the MAC title if they can get by the Owls. Beating the Zips shouldn’t be an issue. Akron won the MAC championship a few years ago but has fallen on hard times. Injury problems have been the biggest issue, but nothing is working in the six-game losing streak since getting the lone win of the year against Morgan State. Three of the last four games are at home, but realistically, there isn’t a winnable game until the finale against Eastern Michigan.
Why Kent State might win: Akron isn’t the worst team in the MAC in sacks allowed, but it’s close. Ranking 101st in the nation, the pass protection has been a disaster while the line isn’t doing much for the ground game. The MAC’s worst offense should have a nightmare of a time against a Kent State defense that’s getting to everyone. Tops in the league in both sack and tackles for loss, the KSU pass rush has been able to mask a slew of other problems by repeatedly hitting the opposing quarterback. The Akron passing game has no shot.
Why Akron might win: It’s not like the Kent State offense is anything special. It has found a little bit of a rhythm since losing star RB Eugene Jarvis, but this isn’t a high-octane attack and it’s not going to put big numbers up on the board. Akron has to keep it close for as long as possible and not screw up. Considering KSU has only put up more than 28 points in just two games this year, this should be close for four quarters, but Akron has to take some chances and force some big plays.
Who to watch: True freshman Patrick Nicely is doing what he can at quarterback for Akron in place of Matt Rodgers, who’s out for the year with a knee injury after replacing suspended starter Chris Jacquemain, but he isn’t getting any help. With top receiver Deryn Bowser out for the year with a leg problem, Andre Jones had to move over from safety to provide a target for Nicely and he has come though as one of the team’s only producers making nine catches for 244 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks.
What will happen: Kent State won’t be pretty, but it’ll come up with four sacks while QB Spencer Keith will throw for 250 yards in an efficient win.
CFN Prediction: Kent State 28 … Akron 14 ... Line: Kent State -3
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 1.5
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