2009 ACC Fearless Predictions
Week 10 ... Nov. 7 Games, Part 2
Atlantic
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Boston College |
Clemson |
Florida
State |
Maryland |
NC
State |
Wake
Forest
Coastal
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Duke
| Georgia
Tech |
Miami
| North
Carolina |
Virginia |
Virginia Tech
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9
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Week 10,
Part 1
Maryland (2-6) at NC State (3-5),1:00 EST, Saturday, ESPN360, November 7
Why to watch: In a game between two of the ACC’s worst programs, one school is going to keep faint postseason hopes alive while the other can begin preparations for a long offseason. Although Maryland has been awful from the opening kickoff, NC State has been a far bigger disappointment, falling apart with four consecutive losses. No one expected much from the Terrapins, which have lost five of the last six games, mixing in a surprising upset of Clemson on Oct. 3. The Wolfpack, on the other hand, began the season as a trendy choice to win the Atlantic Division, but has been riddled with injuries and unable to overcome a defense that wouldn’t survive in the Big South Conference.
Why Maryland might win: Yeah, the NC State defense really is that bad. Over the last five games, it’s been shredded for an average of 42 points and has been a sieve against the run and the pass. The one thing the Terrapins have done modestly well is throw the football, which it’ll do often on Saturday afternoon. With a week off to catch his breath, QB Chris Turner will come out dealing, looking to locate top receivers Torrey Smith and Adrian Cannon. Both played well throughout October and have the size to get position on the inexperienced Pack defensive backs.
Why NC State might win: In what’s basically a carbon copy of this week’s opponent, the Wolfpack will go after a flimsy Maryland secondary with one of the league’s most potent passing attacks. In part out of necessity, Russell Wilson has thrown for 21 touchdowns and more than 2,000 yards, while also making plenty of key plays with his feet. Plus, he has more options than Turner, spreading the ball around to RB Toney Baker, TE George Bryan, and receivers Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams. The Terps are 100th nationally in pass efficiency defense, and it’s going to show in Raleigh this week.
Who to watch: In a game that’ll be dominated by the quarterbacks, whoever gets more backfield pressure will be at a distinct advantage at Carter-Finley Stadium. While Maryland likes to blitz its linebackers, mainly Adrian Moten, NC State prefers a more traditional approach, with the help of DE Willie Young. The season slowly slipping away for the Pack, Young has a chance to use November as a time to impress NFL scouts. He has outstanding get-off and leads the team with 10 tackles for loss and seven sacks.
What will happen: In a toss-up game between two similarly inept programs, NC State will end its slide with the help of Wilson, the most valuable player on either sideline. Finally facing an opponent with an equal number of shortcomings, the sophomore will once again hoist the Pack on his back, throwing three touchdown passes and mercifully getting a different result after 60 minutes.
CFN Prediction: NC State 31 … Maryland 27 ... Line: NC State -7
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2
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Duke (5-3) at North Carolina (5-3),3:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Duke is hot entering November, and Mike Krzyzewski is nowhere to be found. The Blue Devils have emerged as one of the ACC’s most talked about stories, winning three straight conference games for the first time in two decades and drawing to within a victory of bowl eligibility. Heck, David Cutcliffe has his kids in contention in the Coastal Division, tied in the loss column with Georgia Tech. With the Yellow Jackets and the Hurricanes to follow, Duke would love to get that coveted sixth win out of the way now before the pressure really starts to mount. In a matter of one quarter, North Carolina may have completely altered the course of its season. Trailing at Virginia Tech and staring down the barrel of a fourth consecutive ACC loss, the Heels rallied for an unexpected 20-17 upset. It’s up to the players to turn last Thursday’s stunner into a sustained rebound.
Why Duke might win: The Blue Devils’ surge has been fueled by the passing of Thaddeus Lewis and improved play from the defense. Lewis is staking his claim to league MVP honors, throwing 15 touchdown passes and only four picks. His receivers, like Donovan Varner, Conner Vernon, and Austin Kelly, are deep, diverse, and loaded with talent. The biggest surprise in Durham has been the play of the D, which has held the last two opponents under 100 yards rushing. If DT Vince Oghobaase and LB Vincent Rey can get penetration, it’ll be another long afternoon for a brutal Carolina offense.
Why North Carolina might win: Can you beat the Carolina defense with a one-dimensional offense? Unlikely. Yeah, Duke can heave it with Lewis, but the ground game ranks 116th in the nation. Without any threat out of the backfield, the Heels will be able to drop athletic linebackers Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter back into coverage to defend the pass. The Blue Devils have only done a modest job in pass protection, which means Lewis will feel all kinds of pressure from DE Robert Quinn and a defense that’s No. 3 nationally in tackles behind the line. Other than the Florida State debacle, Carolina has yielded just one touchdown pass in the other seven games.
Who to watch: The Tar Heels have started to diversify in the running game, mixing in more Ryan Houston along with starter Shaun Draughn. Mostly a short yardage back throughout his career, Houston has logged at least 15 carries in two of the last three games, showing good quickness and agility for a 245-pound bruiser. Carolina will need both backs to soften the interior of the Duke defense and take some heat off inconsistent QB T.J. Yates.
What will happen: Keep an eye on special teams, a hidden area where North Carolina will enjoy a sizable edge over Duke. The Tar Heels don’t have the firepower to run away and hide from the Blue Devils unless it gets point from non-offensive sources. They do, however, boast one of the ACC’s top defenses, a deep group that’ll keep Lewis quiet and help snap the Devils’ three-game winning streak.
CFN Prediction: North Carolina 27 … Duke 17 ... Line: North Carolina -8.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 3.5
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Wake Forest (4-5) at Georgia Tech (8-1),3:30 EST, Saturday, ESPN2, November 7
Why to watch: With each passing week, Georgia Tech solidifies its position as the best thing going in the ACC. Now No. 10 in the BCS rankings after zooming past Vanderbilt, 56-31, the Yellow Jackets have won six in-a-row since losing to Miami way back on Sept. 17. A win on Saturday would bring the program one giant step closer to a spot in the league championship game next month. Wake Forest’s rollercoaster ride of a season still has one-quarter remaining before it comes to a stop. In arguably the most important game of the year, the Demon Deacons couldn’t keep Miami out of the end zone in the final minute, losing for a third consecutive weekend. They’ve got three tries to win two games and extend the season for one more whirl in December.
Why Wake Forest might win: For starters, the Deacons absolutely, positively must have access to a healthy Riley Skinner, who left last week’s loss with a concussion. He’s obviously the key for an offense that’s home to the nation’s 21st most efficient passing attack. Skinner has thrown 18 touchdown passes, getting tremendous support from receivers Marshall Williams, Devon Brown, and Chris Givens. The Georgia Tech defense was vulnerable throughout October, yielding at least 31 points to Mississippi State, Florida State, and an impotent offense from Vanderbilt.
Why Georgia Tech might win: The triple-option continues to pick up steam in Atlanta, cranking out more than 300 yards a game on the ground. The contributions are coming from myriad directions, including QB Josh Nesbitt and B-back Jonathan Dwyer, who’s coming off his best game of the year. Roddy Jones, Anthony Allen, and Embry Peeples are also chipping in, forming an artillery of weapons that Wake Forest won’t be able to contain. The Demon Deacons have struggled against quality running games, and will be vulnerable through the air when Nesbitt uses play-action to get WR Demaryius Thomas in man coverage.
Who to watch: It should be a busy day for Georgia Tech rover Morgan Burnett, one of the premier defensive backs in the country. He can cover like a cornerback and defend the run like a safety, leading the Yellow Jackets with four picks. However, those Wake receivers can be slippery and command constant attention from the Tech secondary. If Ryan McManus is behind center instead of Skinner, Burnett is liable to have a monster afternoon.
What will happen: Out on the horizon, Georgia Tech can see Raymond James Stadium, site of this year’s ACC championship game. Whether or not Skinner is 100%, Wake Forest doesn’t have the defense or the momentum to spoil the Yellow Jackets’ run toward Tampa. Tech will continue to dominate on the ground, piling up 300 yards in a ball-control attack that wears out the Deacons shortly after halftime.
CFN Prediction: Georgia Tech 34 … Wake Forest 17 ... Line: Georgia Tech -15
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) … 2.5
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Week 10,
Part 1